SAA Fleet Renewal

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evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:44 pm

ERASER wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:38 am
Just heard a little birdy told me 2 A350's from China will arrive in Jul 19 with others to follow later on......they will not enter service directly as a cabin upgrade is scheduled. Very interesting, maybe the Bank of China to the rescue..........!!!!!!
I think you're down the right alley. The prototype builds that were mentioned earlier are going to the German government. They're heavy and have odd wiring that'll make them problematic in a commercial fleet.

Both Hainan Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines (Hong Kong Airlines is a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines) are having financial difficulties and lessors (particularly AerCap, formerly ILFC) are not allowing deliveries of aircraft due to non-payment. There are a few A350s that have been stored in France for several months.

For all SAA's problems they've always made lease payments and have a very good relationship with AerCap (the leased A340s are leased from AerCap). I suspect these are the aircraft in question and that AerCap have placed them at SAA. Both airlines have their A350s in a C33Y301 configuration which won't be suitable for SAA. They'll want a bigger business cabin and likely something more consistent with the A330-300. AerCap will have to have these cabin mods done first and this will take some time.

As an aside, the Bank of China areone of the world's largest lessors. They have about 500 aircraft in service or on order and offer similar terms and business model to any other lessor. While they do lease to Chinese customers, most of their customers are abroad and include Air Canada, Southwest Airlines, IAG, ANZ and Qantas. Nothing "rescue" about them. Also, contrary to the name, while they're now Chinese owned, they were originally Singaporian.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by gregdeklerk » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:48 pm

The A350 is claimed to be 20% more fuel efficient than the A340-300 and 777-200ER. Should be even higher compared to the A340-600.
249de08f91a3f5ed36e36b40095368c6-a350_2.jpg
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Richard007 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:39 pm

Due to the concern over political fallout, the announcement is not due until after the election. Also, SAA's financial situation is rumoured to have deteriorated further with the year ending March 19 resulting in their biggest ever loss, so any aircraft transactions will require further state guarantees.

Once re-elected the ANC is supposedly going to extend considerable support to SOE's.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:46 pm

Richard007 wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:39 pm
Due to the concern over political fallout, the announcement is not due until after the election. Also, SAA's financial situation is rumoured to have deteriorated further with the year ending March 19 resulting in their biggest ever loss, so any aircraft transactions will require further state guarantees.

Once re-elected the ANC is supposedly going to extend considerable support to SOE's.
We have not even seen financial statements for the year ending March 2018 so ...
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Richard007 » Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:41 am

evanb wrote:
Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:46 pm

We have not even seen financial statements for the year ending March 2018 so ...
As you very well know, 2018 accounts are finalised but not published due to the 'going concern status' issue. Which is to say, 'we don't want to publish that we are bankrupt'.
Accounts through Jan 2019 are finalized internally with a pretty reliable idea on the loss for the full year. Its is apparently horrific.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Sat Apr 13, 2019 2:32 pm

Richard007 wrote:
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:41 am
As you very well know, 2018 accounts are finalised but not published due to the 'going concern status' issue. Which is to say, 'we don't want to publish that we are bankrupt'.
Accounts through Jan 2019 are finalized internally with a pretty reliable idea on the loss for the full year. Its is apparently horrific.
Nothing stops a company publishing unaudited financial accounts. The going concern status which is required for an audit sign off doesn't stop them. In fact, if it were a JSE listed company they listing rules would required them to publish them an note this. I suspect that Treasury and DPE are delaying them to avoid embarrassment.

VJ has been pretty clear that he expects very bad results for 2018/19. That's no secret or surprise.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by GL » Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:00 am

evanb wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:44 pm
Both Hainan Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines (Hong Kong Airlines is a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines) are having financial difficulties and lessors (particularly AerCap, formerly ILFC) are not allowing deliveries of aircraft due to non-payment. There are a few A350s that have been stored in France for several months.

For all SAA's problems they've always made lease payments and have a very good relationship with AerCap (the leased A340s are leased from AerCap). I suspect these are the aircraft in question and that AerCap have placed them at SAA. Both airlines have their A350s in a C33Y301 configuration which won't be suitable for SAA. They'll want a bigger business cabin and likely something more consistent with the A330-300. AerCap will have to have these cabin mods done first and this will take some time.
This is my understanding of the situation as well. But I was expecting the two earlier as I was led to believe it was the PFMA 60 day cooling off period that was the hold up. I wonder where the reconfig is being done.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by HAAN » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:08 pm

Will theses A350's replace the A340-600's or the A340-300's?
I realy think SAA is on the right track to get more fuel efficient long haul aircraft's as replacements.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by LongRangeCruise » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:37 pm

The A350s will replace the A340-600s. That’s according to the corridor “chat”
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:49 pm

LongRangeCruise wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:37 pm
The A350s will replace the A340-600s. That’s according to the corridor “chat”
The route that makes the most sense is JNB-JFK where the fuel savings would be huge. It's an exclusive A340-600 route but the -600 is used more for range than it's larger passenger or cargo capacity so the A350-900 would be ideal since it has the legs but not carrying the extra weight the A340-600 does in order to have the legs.

The only other exclusive A340-600 route these days is JNB-FRA, however, here the extra passenger and cargo capacity is a big revenue earner so while the A350-900's fuel savings would be great it would likely give up revenue too. I expect this to be the last A340-600 route and maybe (pure speculation here) an excellent A350-1000 route.

The second most likely route for the A350-900 would be JNB-HKG which is an A340-300 route but is the second longest non-stop SAA route these days.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Johan.botha » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:22 am

Disappointing to see a post was removed here. Seems you get moderated if you aren't kind enough about SAA but you can say whatever you want about Cemair and its not a problem. It was this kind of sick bias that killed off Pprune back in the day.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:57 am

Johan.botha wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:22 am
Disappointing to see a post was removed here. Seems you get moderated if you aren't kind enough about SAA but you can say whatever you want about Cemair and its not a problem. It was this kind of sick bias that killed off Pprune back in the day.
Perhaps your post added no value to the discussion.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Johan.botha » Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:34 pm

Wasn't my post.

Seemed to be on topic.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Deanw » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:04 pm

Two posts were deleted for being political, off topic and adding zero value to the discussion, in terms of the Avcom T&C's.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Johan.botha » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:38 am

Politics and SAA are inextricably linked. Its a political entity, there is no commercial rationale for its existence. Since the fleet renewal dream is inevitably going to be funded by an unwilling taxpayer I see no reason why this isn't central to the discussion.

And if the political/off topic/vicious comment rule is to be imposed then it should be done uniformly. The stuff that goes unchecked in other threads is outrageous.

Personal views of moderators should not drive the direction of discussions.

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