SAA Fleet Renewal

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SwaziEagle
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by SwaziEagle » Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:57 pm

evanb wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:21 pm

There are a number of A350s due for delivery to HX which are being held back from delivery by the lessor. They won't need to be repossessed since they have not been delivered to HX.
I understand that part, im just wondering if SAA will be given the already delivered birds(repossession from HX) or the lessor will reallocate the A350's due for delivery to HX for SAA.

Which do you think is more likely?

Reason im curious is beause im wondering if they will come to JNB from TLS or HKG. If its the already delivered ones will they go somewhere for cabin refitting or SAAT can handle that these days?
evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:06 pm

SwaziEagle wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:57 pm
I understand that part, im just wondering if SAA will be given the already delivered birds(repossession from HX) or the lessor will reallocate the A350's due for delivery to HX for SAA.

Which do you think is more likely?

Reason im curious is beause im wondering if they will come to JNB from TLS or HKG. If its the already delivered ones will they go somewhere for cabin refitting or SAAT can handle that these days?
From what I understand there are three A350s due to be delivered to HX which have been sitting at the Airbus delivery centre in TLS since last year. B-LGF since 8 October 2018, B-LGG since 12 October 2018 and B-LGI since 29 November 2018.

Rumors I've heard is that SAA are likely to receive two of these, so I anticipate that they will come directly from TLS.

In terms of the cabin refit that'll be up to the lessor, not SAA where they get done. While SAA can chose the cabin specs it'll still be up to the lessor where to do it. SAA certainly have the capacity to do it but it might be more about where the materials are, the work involved and what the costs are. I'd anticipate that it'll be done abroad since the lessor will likely be able to get a better price than what SAA could do it for.
SwaziEagle
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by SwaziEagle » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:40 pm

evanb wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:06 pm

From what I understand there are three A350s due to be delivered to HX which have been sitting at the Airbus delivery centre in TLS since last year. B-LGF since 8 October 2018, B-LGG since 12 October 2018 and B-LGI since 29 November 2018.

Rumors I've heard is that SAA are likely to receive two of these, so I anticipate that they will come directly from TLS.

In terms of the cabin refit that'll be up to the lessor, not SAA where they get done. While SAA can chose the cabin specs it'll still be up to the lessor where to do it. SAA certainly have the capacity to do it but it might be more about where the materials are, the work involved and what the costs are. I'd anticipate that it'll be done abroad since the lessor will likely be able to get a better price than what SAA could do it for.
Okay I understand, thanks for the clarity, now we await the month of July, oh wait, elections first then the month of July.

I hope SAA takes the great PR and Marketing opportunity that comes with the delivery of a brand new aircraft and a new fleet type for an airline as opposed to the secrecy that dogs the airline
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HJK 414
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by HJK 414 » Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:45 pm

evanb wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:06 pm

.........Rumors I've heard is that SAA are likely to receive two of these, so I anticipate that they will come directly from TLS.

……... While SAA can chose the cabin specs it'll still be up to the lessor where to do it.

Hi EvanB.

Refit - depending on IFE - and Hot / Cold galley choices - around 5 million US $ per aircraft ??

As for the lease of the 2 aircraft - that will be interesting.
I am predicting a serious loss over the last 24 months - so technically SAA is insolvent. (but for the Guarantees)
Who will sign off the leases do you think ?
SAA - with State backing ? - or are we going to see another party step in / take part in the venture ?

JK
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evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:59 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:45 pm
Refit - depending on IFE - and Hot / Cold galley choices - around 5 million US $ per aircraft ??
Well, it doesn't need a total refit. It's brand new, so it would depend on what specs SAA want. They might not be that different in terms of what the aircraft already have. Also, this is at the cost of the lessor. I don't suspect that SAA will be picking up these costs. If the lessor wants to find a long term lease for this aircraft they'll have to pick up some refit costs for any airline that takes them. In fact the costs might be bigger for an existing customer since they'll want greater commonality than SAA.

The HK aircraft have 33 business and 301 economy seats at between 31 and 34 inches. I suspect that SAA will want a bigger business cabin and have the same seats as the A330-300 so this will require a total refit of business class. They'll also need to add a lavatory at door 2. I suspect that they'll be able to get away with just re-covering the seats and maybe adjusting the spacing in economy to similar specs to the A330-300s.
HJK 414 wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:45 pm
As for the lease of the 2 aircraft - that will be interesting.
I am predicting a serious loss over the last 24 months - so technically SAA is insolvent. (but for the Guarantees)
Who will sign off the leases do you think ?
SAA - with State backing ? - or are we going to see another party step in / take part in the venture ?
I'm not sure why they would need any outside backing. If they're taking them on operating rather than financing leases I don't suspect that AerCap would want any specific guarantees. This will be no different from the A330-300s. From what I understand, SAA are in good standing on other leases with AerCap so I suspect that there won't be any upfront conditions attached to it. Also, I suspect that the transaction may also involve the return of three leased A340-600s to AerCap (this is my own suspicion, nothing that I've heard). They could shift over the maintenance reserves from the A340-600s to the A350-900s. Nice deal for both parties!
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rare bird
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by rare bird » Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:23 pm

any ideas for the reason AerCap's share price dropped so much in Dec 2018?
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evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:57 pm

rare bird wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:23 pm
any ideas for the reason AerCap's share price dropped so much in Dec 2018?
There was a fairly significant US equity market decline from 3 to 24 December 2018. AerCap tracked the broader market.

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