SAA turnaround strategy

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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by plane^driver » Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:48 am

Even free aircraft won't fix SAA, just leaves more money for the back pockets.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by sweptwing » Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:55 am

I know there's a lot of money in aviation because I put it there.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by jbayfan » Wed Jul 03, 2019 3:57 pm

evanb wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:41 am
jbayfan wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:39 pm
SAA will be getting A330-900 NEOs. The A340s will be phased out.
SAA currently only has three routes which the A340s fly exclusively. JNB-JFK, JNB-HKG (and put JNB-CAN with that) and JNB-FRA (although JNB-FRA occasionally sees A330 substitutions). That schedule required six aircraft. With JNB-JFK going to A350, that leaves four A340s required. The A330-900neo will not replace those four aircraft since they certainly won't carry the payload on JNB-HKG/CAN and likely not regularly on JNB-FRA.

JNB-LHR, JNB-MUC, JNB-ACC/DDS-IAD, JNB-GRU, JNB-ACC-ABJ and JNB-LOS are A330 routes (with occasional A340 substitutions). This requires about nine aircraft. An additional possibility is JNB-PER which is flown interchangeably with A330 and A340, but could be replaced by A330.

With the remaining A340s being phased out I find it difficult to see the the A330-900neos replacing them.
They would not be replacing the A340's. There are more A350's in the pipeline for that. Talk is a total of 6 A350's.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by evanb » Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:10 pm

jdag2004 wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:44 am
This is the hypothetical ranges from JNB, not taking into account elevation and those factors.
I'd ignore the stated ranges. They're unrealistic marketing gimmicks from the manufacturers. Rather look at how other operators are using them. For example, Delta's longest scheduled A330-900neo route is SEA-PVG at 4,972nm, while TAP's longest scheduled route is LIS-LAX at 4,944nm. That's much the same distance as JNB-LHR. And these are operating from sea level. The A330neo is a decidedly a medium to long range aircraft, and not in the ULH sphere. I can't imagine that SAA operating at 5,700ft and pushing into the 6,000 to 7,000nm range.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by grjplanes » Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:01 pm

Looks like Airlink will be taking over JNB-EBB with E190 from next week.
It still shows as a SAA flight number (SA160), but says operated by Airlink.

JNB-LAD also seems to be going down again to only 2 weekly flights. Maybe there's other changes as well. Have noted some widebodies (mostly A330s) on other regional routes also over the last few days/weeks, like NBO, HRE, WDH.

Re: Airlink then, I presume they have already received all their Embraer 170/190 aircraft as was initially ordered, not sure if it was all fully utilized yet, or will they be getting more?
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by Mike Gough » Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:10 pm

I operated our second last EBB flight..... with that ZFW not sure how that's going to fit into a smaller aircraft.... :-k

Be that as it may, a reputable birdie told me that domestic service has turned a profit.....slim, but profit nonetheless...
www.skyhawk.co.za

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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by Johan.botha » Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:42 pm

Ja right. Heard this before. SAA is a failure.

No financials since 2016 but burning squillions in public funds and entering leases for 4 new aeroplanes. You cannot respect that which is unrespectable.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by evanb » Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:10 pm

Johan.botha wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:42 pm
No financials since 2016 but burning squillions in public funds and entering leases for 4 new aeroplanes. You cannot respect that which is unrespectable.
Google is your friend. 2017 financials published in 2018, but yes, we're still waiting for the 2019 financials.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by GL » Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:22 pm

evanb wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:10 pm
Johan.botha wrote:
Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:42 pm
No financials since 2016 but burning squillions in public funds and entering leases for 4 new aeroplanes. You cannot respect that which is unrespectable.
Google is your friend. 2017 financials published in 2018, but yes, we're still waiting for the 2019 financials.
Still waiting for 2018 and 2019 financials. In the presentation to the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance during May 2018, SAA conceded that it anticipated a loss of approximately R5 billion for the reporting period ending March 2018 (these results have not officially been published).
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by Richard007 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:53 am

I think its SAX that is still to publish financials after 2016.

Does anyone know what the loss is for 2019? Rumours I have heard have been quite high. And that the cash position is dire.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by ARM505 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:52 pm

Posting in an SAA turnaround thread in 2019.
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by Richard007 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:47 am

These are about the losses the rumour network is spitting out except I hear total revenue is sharply down too.

From Moneyweb

SAA may have recorded a loss of more than R9bn in the past year
A look at what its figures for the year to end-March might look like, bearing in mind that its 2018 annual report remains unpublished nearly 17 months after the end of that financial year.

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-a ... past-year/
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by HJK 414 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:22 am

If the forecast by Moneyweb is correct - the airline is going past a point of no return.
If the losses per annum are indeed approaching 10 Billion Rand - there will be no way back.
It would be close to a third of the revenue - and even if the burden of debt is taken away (I seriously doubt whether the bailouts have been used to lower debt) - they will have used it as operational cash and interest payment funds - that hurdle will be too high.

JK
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by GL » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:05 am

I have a number of problems with Adriaan Kruger's Moneyweb story -
I feel that if Kruger had used the more recent numbers provided by SAA’s report on its 2018 numbers to parliament’s SCOPA and then Dec 18 numbers to SCOA (appropriations) the article would have been improved.
Also he is missing the fact that Vuyani Jarana cut a significant number of routes = revenue and costs, by putting 15% of pilots out on contract and cutting A340 usage. So I reckon Revenue and Costs are in fact down for 2018/19, and not up as he projects.
Of course I might be wrong – when the result are finally published!
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Re: SAA turnaround strategy

Unread post by HJK 414 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:11 am

GL wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:05 am
I have a number of problems with Adriaan Kruger's Moneyweb story -
I feel that if Kruger had used the more recent numbers provided by SAA’s report on its 2018 numbers to parliament’s SCOPA and then Dec 18 numbers to SCOA (appropriations) the article would have been improved.
Also he is missing the fact that Vuyani Jarana cut a significant number of routes = revenue and costs, by putting 15% of pilots out on contract and cutting A340 usage. So I reckon Revenue and Costs are in fact down for 2018/19, and not up as he projects.
Of course I might be wrong – when the result are finally published!

Guy,

I hope you are right - as the numbers are scary
He is right with the fuel cost though - if they did not cover themselves for it.

If Moneyweb is correct :
The passenger load / SAA Group total per annum is about 10 Million passengers
If the losses start to approach 10 Billion Rand - the airline is subsidizing every passenger - on every flight with 1000 Rand !!
The taxpayers funding the affluent to fly …….

If the route network has shrunk and the passenger load as well - and we are down to let's say 8 Million Pax carried
The equation would stay the same (8 Billion loss / 8 Million pax) stays at 1000 Rand subsidy per pax on every flight.

I am aware that there are other divisions and that the losses are an accumulated sum - but still …... #-o
If you were to buy a return ticket to Durban from JNB - you would pay around 1000 Rand / and the Airline group would throw another 1000 rand at it for the "privilege" to fly you …….taxpayers money - that is ridiculous …….

JK
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