SAA after Business rescue

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evanb
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by evanb » Fri May 27, 2022 1:01 am

GL wrote:
Thu May 26, 2022 8:22 am
Can we have a fresh try at establishing what a/c SAA still owns (not leases)?
And what their current market values may be?
My best guess:
6 or 7 A340s worth maybe U$10 mil each (engine values?)
3 x A319s worth maybe U$10 mil each?
0 x A320s
0 x A332s
0 x A333s?
Currently operating 3x A319s (ZS-SFJ/K/L), 2x A320s (ZS-SZI/J) and 1x A330-300 (ZS-SXM) which are all leased as far as I'm aware. They're also operating an owned A340-300 (ZS-SXF), used for charters and as a back-up, for example, was more active recently while the A330-300 was in for maintenance (assuming C-check equivalent which SAAT seemingly did in-house).

They still have several several more owned A340s that are not active including 6x A340-600s (SNA/B/C/D/F/G) and 3x A340-300s (SXD/E/F). SNE/H/I were the leased A340-600s that were returned to lessors, and SXA/B/C the leased A340-300s returned to lessors. All currently in the US and Europe. I'm not sure about who owns the other 2x A340-300s (G and H), but I suspect they are leased even though they're stored at JNB. All other A330s were returned to lessors and most have found new homes.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by GL » Fri May 27, 2022 8:37 am

Thanks as always Evan and Ray.
Quite a few a/c still owned according to Ray - including the 319s
How did SAA come to own an A330?
Evan - Can you hazard even a wild guess at values?
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Trent772B » Fri May 27, 2022 9:45 am

This gives an idea of the A340's value.

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a340-wo ... 20Aviation.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by GL » Fri May 27, 2022 12:35 pm

Trent772B wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 9:45 am
This gives an idea of the A340's value.

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a340-wo ... 20Aviation.
Thank you - really interesting to see values of not much more than U$1m. Scary
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by flypiper » Sun May 29, 2022 9:35 am

Hi Guys,

Are they still flying operating. ?
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Ray W » Sun May 29, 2022 10:25 am

flypiper wrote:
Sun May 29, 2022 9:35 am
Hi Guys,

Are they still flying operating. ?
Yes - saw two of the A319s flying yesterday.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by flypiper » Sun May 29, 2022 7:40 pm

Thanks Ray,
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Reyaviator » Sun May 29, 2022 9:46 pm

evanb wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 2:22 pm
Jfairwell wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 5:36 am
My word here we go again, from my experience in corporate finance can we at least agree that SAA has zero debt post-rescue and its assets are worth more than R100? And while this may still render a zero equity value, SAA theoretically has a substantial net asset value - R3 billion if you can believe the DPE and Takatso (which I don’t).

Takatso advises the public that they will introduce leveraged funding into SAA over a three year period, but you postulate that SAA’s assets does not hold sufficient value to do so.

Harith manages an infrastructure fund and is invested in Lanseria Airport, amongst other. They have been under scrutiny, but Incan tell you they are switched on, successful and are far more qualified to value infrastructure assets in real life than most other that comment here.

This will be a financial coup if they pull it off.
Agreed, they have no bank or financing debt. This has been taken off the balance sheet at the end of the business rescue. You might not want to call it debt, but they have payables of more than R3 billion, net payables of more than R2 billion - these are increasing daily. There is a sizeable unflown ticket liability. Additionally, they have additional contingent liabilities not stated on the balance sheet including the claim from Airlink (I have no legal expertise to understand the probability of this coming to fruition).

Once this is netted off against the property, the A340s, the LHR slots and the blocked currency, it's a negative net asset value. There is nothing to leverage and Harith will be unable to leverage SAA in this regard. I know this because they has already been assessed by some financial institutions and was one of the major challenges in the delay of the Takatso deal. If no banks were willing to lend SAA without state guarantees for years, why would this change now?

While they may present financial statements (which they have not) that show a positive net asset value, that net asset value is certainly not realisable and that is what lenders will consider.

The R3 billion that Harith will put in will not come in a single tranche and we don't know the details. It's pretty vague. No idea how they plan to do this. But I agree that what you say regarding them being switched on. Their funds are valued in billions of dollars, they have plenty of resources without having to leverage SAA's non-existent balance sheet.
Harith does not have the finance, they have been short of financing lately to the extent that they have been robbing projects under their control to finance other projects and thus attracting the interest of fiduciary bodies for corporate fraud. Where the 3 billion will come from is anyone’s guess. More interesting is though, how is SAA being propped up with massive losses at present and after shedding 80% of their workforce? Something smells fishy.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by evanb » Mon May 30, 2022 7:53 am

GL wrote:
Fri May 27, 2022 8:37 am
Thanks as always Evan and Ray.
Quite a few a/c still owned according to Ray - including the 319s
How did SAA come to own an A330?
Evan - Can you hazard even a wild guess at values?
I'm not sure that any of the aircraft listed in Ray's spreadsheet are owned. The business rescue documents clearly indicated that all the A319s, A320s and A330s were leased. The A330-330 (ZS-SXM) is leased from Seraph Aviation. The A319s and A320s are leased from Castlelake and Goshawk Aviation, respectively.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by GL » Wed Jun 01, 2022 8:39 am

So I sent a formal request to SAA re a/c ownership - and got this less than satisfactory answer:
Dear Guy
Hope you are well!
The information you seek is commercially sensitive, which cannot be provided
Thanks for your understanding
Kind Regards
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Burner » Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:27 am

Planespotters.net seems to be pretty accurate when it comes to what airframes are leased and what are owned.

Of the 7 airframes that are regularly flying, only the A340-300 is owned. The 3 x A319s, 2 x A320's and the A330-300 are leased as per Evans post.
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Volo » Wed Jun 01, 2022 1:07 pm

Burner wrote:
Wed Jun 01, 2022 10:27 am
Planespotters.net seems to be pretty accurate when it comes to what airframes are leased and what are owned.

Of the 7 airframes that are regularly flying, only the A340-300 is owned. The 3 x A319s, 2 x A320's and the A330-300 are leased as per Evans post.
...................................................
Not much Equity there then ?
Regarding Hariths R3 billion ( better to write it as it brings home the magnitude of the game they are playing) I thought we all knew this was coming from the State pension funds and that it is / was supposed to be ratified by Parliament - where is this now ?
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by African Flyer » Thu Jun 02, 2022 10:26 pm

Still on the ground after 26 hours ✈
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Ray W » Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:06 am

I see according to the TV news last night that SAA are increasing their capacity on domestic routes to absorb the BA/Kulula pax. I wonder what aircraft they'll be using - maybe drag the old 340s out ?
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Re: SAA after Business rescue

Unread post by Deanw » Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:27 am

Ray W wrote:
Fri Jun 03, 2022 9:06 am
I see according to the TV news last night that SAA are increasing their capacity on domestic routes to absorb the BA/Kulula pax. I wonder what aircraft they'll be using - maybe drag the old 340s out ?
Yup, see viewtopic.php?f=233&t=250173&start=15#p2235763
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