Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

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HJK 414
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:00 pm

Virgin Atlantic
virgin.jpg

Virgin Atlantic staff will be asked to take eight weeks of unpaid leave over the next three months, to help the airline cope during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://news.sky.com/story/most-world-a ... y-11958150

JK
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Darren » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:00 pm

ArthurDent wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:56 pm
The irony in SA is that the Gov doesn't have the cash to save the SOE's, deal with the virus and bail out the private airlines, so I can see the private airlines furloughing and retrenching as demand declines and the state-owned airlines stay under business rescue and come out as if the virus did not happen (not that they would be in a good position, but just not worse than they already were).

This isn't a quick thing either. I'd say however long it takes to find a vaccine (or stop the infection completely) plus 12 months before the aviation industry will show recovery in any significant fashion.
South Africa will have to take on debt to fund its economic support packages, as will many other countries. My guess is that ratings agencies will be a lot more flexible on that than they were before this crisis, just as they were more tolerant of new debt taken in in the 2008 financial crisis.

The private airlines are going to have to retrench and furlough as well though. Financial support will be the sort that keeps them alive, not operating as though nothing happened.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:26 pm

Qantas reducing capacity by around 25% for at least 6 months …...
Grounding all A380's

QF .jpg
https://thepointsguy.co.uk/news/qantas- ... ronavirus/


JK
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by ArthurDent » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:18 pm

Darren wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:00 pm
ArthurDent wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:56 pm
The irony in SA is that the Gov doesn't have the cash to save the SOE's, deal with the virus and bail out the private airlines, so I can see the private airlines furloughing and retrenching as demand declines and the state-owned airlines stay under business rescue and come out as if the virus did not happen (not that they would be in a good position, but just not worse than they already were).

This isn't a quick thing either. I'd say however long it takes to find a vaccine (or stop the infection completely) plus 12 months before the aviation industry will show recovery in any significant fashion.
South Africa will have to take on debt to fund its economic support packages, as will many other countries. My guess is that ratings agencies will be a lot more flexible on that than they were before this crisis, just as they were more tolerant of new debt taken in in the 2008 financial crisis.

The private airlines are going to have to retrench and furlough as well though. Financial support will be the sort that keeps them alive, not operating as though nothing happened.
The difficult question for the local private airlines is going to be how long they think this will last. Safair and Airlink were both hiring before this started. I suspect both of those might have to furlough if this carries on for more than a few weeks. Airlink seems particularly vulnerable considering the dynamics of their route network and its dependence on tourists, especially international ones. They are already dealing with the fallout of the SAA BR and the resultant impact on their own load factors.

Safair at least owns most, if not all of their aircraft. Airlink will have significant lease costs to consider. Comair (although they lost money this year), will be hoping for some relief from Boeing for the Max which they have had to keep on paying, but they could probably ramp down their operation a little without too much risk.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Ugly Duckling » Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:54 pm

speedbird wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:10 pm
How is this affecting the local airlines in SA at the moment?
I am sure they must be feeling the effects but surely we not at the same level yet as the guys in the US and EU?
I spent the day working at ORT. The number of flights is down :shock:
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Ned Yakman » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:16 pm

According to Brian Pearce, IATA's chief economist, 60% of the world's airlines only have sufficient cash to cover fixed costs for the next 3 months. It's why IATA is making an urgent plea to governments and banks to intervene - not with bail-outs, but with temporary and extraordinary financial support measures such as tax relief and rebates, lowering user charges and other statutory fees, extending lines of credit, rescheduling debt payments, issuing bonds to guarantee loans, etc. Pearce was speaking on a global media call this afternoon.
Attached is a pdf with slides he presented.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:16 pm

Well,

That is probably the last nail in the coffin ……... :shock:

The EU (all of the European Union) has closed it's outside borders to anyone travelling in from outside the EU.
No more travel to any of the EU states from outside the EU - no exceptions.

This rule is in place for 30 days to start with …...



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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by b-rad » Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:43 am

The situation is getting worse and worse. And changing all the time.
Many many aircraft parked up at Copenhagen airport yesterday. Aircraft being readied for long periods of no flying. Some heavy maintenance has been bought forward on some aircraft.
The terminal itself had a handful of passsnegers and almost every retailer, restaurant, coffee shop was closed. This at 6pm when the place is normally incredibly busy. For those who have passed through Copenhagen airport you'll know it's almost like a shopping mall.
I fear for everyone working in those shops and restaurants as surely many will have to close permanently.
SAS staff were talking of close to 90% of staff cutbacks. Many crew had the feeling that yesterday and the coming days may be their last flights.
On the flight to Stockholm there were 8 pax on the A320. Many more tough decisions will need to be made in the coming days and weeks but ultimately the entire scenario is a bad one.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Nicolaas206 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:34 am

We were the only aircraft taxying to the runway at Hong Kong yesterday. Felt like being at an airplane graveyard. The quietness on the radio was scarily eerie. Zoom in to see all the tails. There are a lot more aircraft parked at other areas on the airport.

This is suppose to be the 8th busiest airport in the world...
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by ARM505 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:51 am

I'm told Comair just started the retrenchment process.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Only » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:21 pm

ARM505 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:51 am
I'm told Comair just started the retrenchment process.
I really hope this not true.

Comair had a tuff year with the Max being grounded and a lot of senior guys has jumped ship. Retrenchment seems like an overreaction
for the corona virus situation put people on unpaid leave because things should return to normal, I hope.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by Falafel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:37 pm

Only wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:21 pm
ARM505 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:51 am
I'm told Comair just started the retrenchment process.
I really hope this not true.

Comair had a tuff year with the Max being grounded and a lot of senior guys has jumped ship. Retrenchment seems like an overreaction
for the corona virus situation put people on unpaid leave because things should return to normal, I hope.
Seriously where have you been? Even if this thing ends in 3/4 months time, structural changes have occurred which will set airlines back many years...
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by ArthurDent » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm

Nowhere in the President's speech did I hear passenger airlines being exempt, so I assume everyone grounded from Thursday night for at least 3 weeks.
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by heisan » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:02 pm

Exemptions:
• Hotels, airlines, stadiums, car rental services, to the extent that they are supporting essential
or critical business continuity services and repurposing for
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Re: Airlines in trouble / global issue ?

Unread post by RiNCEw1ND » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:45 pm

heisan wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:02 pm
Exemptions:
• Hotels, airlines, stadiums, car rental services, to the extent that they are supporting essential
or critical business continuity services and repurposing for
Have you got a link for this?

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