Airlines after Corona

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Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Roger » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 am

With so many airlines worldwide grounding fleets and hands out for support from governments, what changes may we see in the Airline operations in a post Corona World.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by LongRangeCruise » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:36 am

1) emirates will definitely survive this.
“ The Central Bank of the UAE has decided to launch an AED100 billion (27 billion USD) economic stimulus package "to grant temporary relief" to the private sector for a period of up to six months.”

African airlines will be the hardest hit since “economic or natural” disasters have historically been an excuse to prop up the political and military sphere and flex the proverbial iron fist.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by ArthurDent » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:41 am

Roger wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 am
... what changes may we see in the Airline operations in a post Corona World.
Oh, that's easy. Pilots are going to have to give up hard-negotiated perks and salaries again and "airline pilot" is going to become even less attractive as an occupation.

Bean-counters will pay themselves bonuses for screwing governments out of bail-out money and employees out of income and/or perks and move on to go and screw up other businesses.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Chuck » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:21 pm

An alarming fact in the IATA presentation posted in a different threat is the fact that a lot of airlines only have cash reserves for 2 months or so. In the wake of 2008 credit crisis banks were made to greatly increase their reserves. It would make sense that surviving airlines in future will be made to do the same and this may even be part of the certification process.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:59 pm

The faster the world, can get control of the speed infection spreads the less the chance of this happening. Failing to do so - will probably lead to this.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... upt-517512

Furthermore SA government is not in the habit of throwing lifeline grants to private business, as it has to government business...but who knows.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Airwayfreak » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:28 pm

The sad thing is that this outbreak was predicted only last year. Watch "Preventing a Pandemic" on NETFLIX.

We, as a human race, are decidedly stupid.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by HJK 414 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:40 am

Italy have taken full control of Alitalia - basically making it a state airline again.

Swiss government reported to be speaking about buying back Swiss ……..
Newspaper reports claim possible decision is based on level of support needed.....

This market is going to change forever


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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by jbayfan » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:44 am

What about private / public airlines in SA? Can Comair, FlySafair and Airlink survive if this continues for months? Something needs to be done by government to assist all SA airlines. There are just a few weeks left before load factors will drop into the teens, if not lower. Parking aircraft will be the only logical response.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by snoopy » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:32 am

If government throws more lifelines to failing state airlines an NOT to all private business who have been affected by this, well there will be hell to play, I suppose. They just recently got another massive lifeline in SOEs, and well they still owe and own a massive debt.

Cant wait for this to be over and debriefed.

How things are being dealt with in terms of state, private business and the public at large, is very interesting. And this is giving one a unique insight into how policymakers think and will think in future. Even at the worst of times.

Heaven forbid a war ever breaks out globally. Given what has already come out in this saga.

April will throw SA another curve ball...which I'm not so sure its really ready for.
Last edited by snoopy on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:42 am

snoopy wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:32 am
If government throws more lifelines to failing state airlines an NOT to all private business who have been affected by this, well there will be hell to play, I suppose. They just recently got another massive lifeline is SOEs.

Cant wait for this to be over and debriefed.

How things are being dealt with in terms of state, private business and the public at large, is very interesting. And this is giving one a unique insight into how policymakers think and will think in future. Even at the worst of times.

Heaven forbid a war ever breaks out globally. Given what has already come out in this saga.
Agree.... there are so many business which risk going under and cumulatively I would hazzard a guess employ more than the airlines... Tourism / hospitality (restaurants, hotels, endless list) is a massive industry in SA and ignoring them and all the spin off industries is going to aggravate many...
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by snoopy » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:47 am

Airlines are not the only business group that works on very small margins - its just that those in the private sector (that do as well) need to carry the can on their own, no state bailouts... and the 2 are very different cups of tea.

And no business can sustain that for long if the market it sells in has been killed by SOEs and poor government decision making.
Last edited by snoopy on Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:52 am

And now more than ever an efficient use of funds is critical and airlines in my view would be questionable in terms of most efficient and effective use of limited funds... and I will likely be lambasted again for saying it :roll: :roll: :roll: so taking it on the chin...
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by snoopy » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:16 pm

In my own opinion - Quantas has done the right thing, despite the cost...and to end this whole dilemma sooner, its probably best to rather lock down flights completely for a few weeks or months.

Why do I say this? Because if you have localized spreading already, and you know passengers can be contagious without symptoms - the risk is obvious - if you keep flying,shipping,railing or bussing pax even domestically you're part of the problem which causes an increase in infection curve.

Just stopping cruise ships from disembarking and embarking at ports, and stopping public gatherings alone wont stop this...

And people are not going to like me for saying that either. But there is a logical disconnect in containment policy at the moment, which I suppose is decided on in consultation with shipping charter companies, bus companies, rail companies and airlines etc. Who all transport passengers for a living.

And everything decided on now - will affect the curve, which will affect the aftermath of all of this.

I've owned a private business for more than 20 years, so I understand the impact all of this will have, sooner or later.

If everyone plays along in slowing down the infection curve now - its going to make the aftermath of this far less destructive (to business also)...than if we ignore doing so selectively. This virus isn't selective its opportunistic.
Last edited by snoopy on Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by evanb » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:35 pm

snoopy wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:16 pm
In my own opinion - Quantas has done the right thing, despite the cost...and to end this whole dilemma sooner, its probably best to rather lock down flights completely for a few weeks or months.

Why do I say this? Because if you have localized spreading already, and you know passengers can be contagious without symptoms - the risk is obvious - if you keep flying,shipping,railing or bussing pax even domestically you're part of the problem which causes an increase in infection curve.
This is not exactly what Qantas are doing. They are suspending international flights at the end of March through May. They will still continue an ad hoc schedule to some international destinations as per government requests for strategic and repatriation purposes. They will also continue a very limited domestic and regional schedule of approximately 40 percent of capacity. This has been deemed an essential service by the Australian government. For example, Sydney-Melbourne will run 250 return weekly services through the end of March (down from well over 400 at present), and then 88 return weekly services through the end of May.
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Re: Airlines after Corona

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:17 pm

snoopy wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:16 pm
In my own opinion - Quantas has done the right thing, despite the cost...and to end this whole dilemma sooner, its probably best to rather lock down flights completely for a few weeks or months.

Why do I say this? Because if you have localized spreading already, and you know passengers can be contagious without symptoms - the risk is obvious - if you keep flying,shipping,railing or bussing pax even domestically you're part of the problem which causes an increase in infection curve.

Just stopping cruise ships from disembarking and embarking at ports, and stopping public gatherings alone wont stop this...

And people are not going to like me for saying that either. But there is a logical disconnect in containment policy at the moment, which I suppose is decided on in consultation with shipping charter companies, bus companies, rail companies and airlines etc. Who all transport passengers for a living.

And everything decided on now - will affect the curve, which will affect the aftermath of all of this.

I've owned a private business for more than 20 years, so I understand the impact all of this will have, sooner or later.

If everyone plays along in slowing down the infection curve now - its going to make the aftermath of this far less destructive (to business also)...than if we ignore doing so selectively. This virus isn't selective its opportunistic.
I agree, but on a side note really bad timings for Virgin Voyages... the cruise industry will likely take alot longer than the airline industry to recover from this... https://www.virginvoyages.com/

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