Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by zander » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:36 am

C Africa wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:00 am
sampie wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year ! ! ! that's right 21.3 BILLION TONNES ! ! ! Natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year ! ! !
Maybe you should try to understand the dynamics of carbon dioxide. The CO2 in the air is in equilibrium with the CO2 dissolved in the oceans (where it exists basically as carbonic acid). The amount of CO2 in the oceans is a large multiple of the amount in the atmosphere. So only a small portion of that CO2 ends up in the atmosphere!!

This is of course also a problem for the future. If you can reduce the CO2 output to the point that we produce less than what gets used by plants etc, it will have almost zero effect on the atmospheric CO2 because as fast as you remove it from the atmosphere, it will get topped up by CO2 evaporating from the ocean to maintain the equilibrium.


C
:lol: So You Had to bring out an Old almost 10 year old debunked Denier myth to try and bring about confusion ?

Sorry there is no misconception On the Science part, only on the Denier part
Clearly you either misunderstand the Dynamics or are Misinformed:

The Dynamics by Sampie is sound, The Deniers will go to great lenghts to try stoke up confusion, after all that's all they have to put on the table ;)

The audience for whom this piece is intended consists of people who know some chemistry and are uncertain about how to consider the often made claim by deniers that the oceans contain so much dissolved carbon that human production is inconsequential. The elementary chemical concepts of chemical equilibrium and charge balance put restraints on the ability of the ocean to release carbon dioxide to the air. Because of these restraints the oceans locally can release only a small part of the total dissolved carbon dioxide and, more importantly, when averaged over a year the amount released equals the amount dissolved, i.e. there is not net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from the oceans so long as the temperature averaged over a year remains constant from year to year.

1: Thermodynamics and charge balance place serious restraints on the ability of dissolved carbon dioxide to pass into the gas phase as a result of local temperature changes. The significance of these restraints should be considered by the deniers when they assert that the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the oceans is so large that exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere dwarf human production.

2. The nature of the average temperature and the thermodynamics of the reactions means that there is, on the average, no net exchange of carbon dioxide between the oceans and the atmosphere i.e. the notion that somehow carbon dioxide is belched into the atmosphere by the oceans ignores the basic fact that whatever carbon dioxide is released in one part is compensated by an equal quantity dissolved in another.

This topic deals with the acid-base chemistry of the species important in the solubility of. The amount of each of the dissolved substances is described by its molality, which is the number of moles dissolved in a kilogram (kg) of water. In order to consider the chemistry it is necessary to propose a model system. A model for the average ocean is: A 3.5% sodium chloride solution in water at T=288K in equilibrium with 387 ppm in air at a pH of 8.00 and in addition 0.416 millimoles of dissolved boric acid per kg of water. The molalities of the seven solute species are fixed by seven independent equations . is known from the Keeling curve so is fixed by the Henry’s law constant for

The molality of hydrogen ion is fixed by the measured pH, and the observed quantity of dissolved boric acid yields

Thus there are three restraints placed on the solute molalities at 288K by the known properties of average seawater. There are four more relations (restraints) relating the molalities namely the equilibrium constants for the four independent net reactions among the solute species. These were obtained as functions of T using tabulated thermodynamic data. Algebra then yields the molalities of the remaining solute species at 288K, specifically the equilibrium molalities of , , and, as well as the other species, are determined for the average ocean.

The total carbon dioxide molallity is thus fixed in the equilibrium average ocean (its value is 1.65 millimolal). Bicarbonate is 91.5% of this total molality. An essential requirement for the evolution of carbon dioxide from the equilibrium ocean into the atmosphere is a perturbing influence. The one property of the solution that can be altered so as to affect the total molality is the temperature of the system.

E.g. consider the effect of changing the temperature at constant partial pressure of .
The pH will change with T so the pH=8.00 restraint is lost. On the other hand, by charge balance is constant ( are not included in the sum because they are present at such low concentration that they can be neglected). Thus even when T differs from 288K there are as many restraints as there are molalities. Tabulated thermodynamic data were used to calculate the equilibrium constants (including the Henry’s Law constant) at each of eight temperatures between 276 and 304K and the molalities for all species were found algebraically at the eight temperatures. In particular the three molalities in were found at each T . The eight values for were fit to a straight line as a function of T with the result:

This means that the locally in the ocean decreases by only 13.5 micromoles per kg for each degree that T increases. The opposite is also true: the increases by 13.5 micromoles locally for each degree of decrease. Since 288K is the average T, when there is an increase in one place there is a decrease in another and thus the net exchange of between the ocean and the atmosphere is zero if there is no other source of carbon dioxide such as human combustion of fossil fuels. Considering this human production leads to the conclusion that there is necessarily a net increase in dissolved carbon dioxide (see Henry's Law above) and the calculations yield in this case a decreasing average pH in the oceans. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable than I could add a comment about the effect of increasing acidity on coral reefs, plankton, fish, etc.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by zander » Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:43 am

HJK 414 wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:33 am
C Africa wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:00 am
sampie wrote:
Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:01 pm
The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year ! ! ! that's right 21.3 BILLION TONNES ! ! ! Natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year ! ! !
Maybe you should try to understand the dynamics of carbon dioxide. The CO2 in the air is in equilibrium with the CO2 dissolved in the oceans (where it exists basically as carbonic acid). The amount of CO2 in the oceans is a large multiple of the amount in the atmosphere. So only a small portion of that CO2 ends up in the atmosphere!!

This is of course also a problem for the future. If you can reduce the CO2 output to the point that we produce less than what gets used by plants etc, it will have almost zero effect on the atmospheric CO2 because as fast as you remove it from the atmosphere, it will get topped up by CO2 evaporating from the ocean to maintain the equilibrium.


C

hold it C.... :wink:

You may disturb the purpose in life our tree huggers have with all kinds of facts...... [-X
Then who do they blame and accuse as from tomorrow??
They may have to face reality...... :shock:

JK
I Side with Scientific facts rather than All sorts of Drivel, Propaganda and Deliberate Misconception =D>

Your Denier reality consists for Denialism, Lies and Deception, nothing more, the real world is explained by science and facts, not smokescreens and mirrors ;)
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by HJK 414 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:07 am

zander wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:43 am
I Side with Scientific facts rather than All sorts of Drivel, Propaganda and Deliberate Misconception =D>

Your Denier reality consists for Denialism, Lies and Deception, nothing more, the real world is explained by science and facts, not smokescreens and mirrors ;)

Zander …….. take a deep breath, calm down.

You have just displayed why the debate is always off the rails - :?
Shouting - name calling and calling another opinion smoke and mirrors does not enhance a debate - it simply shows you are incapable of listening - evaluating and a reasoned debate.

If you take the time to read back - the "deniers" are not arguing about the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
It is the "solution" that is the debate.

There is too much money going around in the "climate debate" / the "CO2 debate" and the venture to make the planet more "sustainable". Too many interest groups that are earning way too much money in "proving their facts"....
That simply stifles the progress and the people that want "change based on the scientific facts that the CO2 is there" have buried themselves in a pi$$ing contest that they can never win ….
You can not force people out of their cars or forbid air travel or a cow farting … it is a pipe dream.

The solution has to come from technology - and if we spent 10% of the money they are spending in trying to change people's habits - we would have a solution in no time at all.

We already can mix CO2 with water - and then extract hydrogen gas (I know it still costs a a lot of energy - so not yet efficient process ) but imagine using the excess CO2 to solve the energy crisis (oil is running out one day - so is Hydrogen the solution ??)

Let's spend the money on finding a solution - and not by one group telling the others to change their behaviour ...
The debate of "too many people" - too much consumption - too many cars - too reliant on oil is becoming very stale - you wish to shoot half the world's population ? (that would solve it).

Stop yelling that you are right - yes - there is too much CO2 - so have a beer - feel good - celebrate, and now try to become productive - creative and try to add your energy to a solution - instead of emphasizing the problem and blaming others ….

JK
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by C Africa » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:22 am

Maybe my post was misinterpreted.

I am simply saying that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are not increasing by nearly as much as the amount of CO2 that gets spewed into the atmosphere because large amounts of that gets dissolved into the oceans.

So simply put, the reservoir of CO2 is much larger than just the atmosphere.

Which is why the percentage in the atmosphere is so VERY VERY low despite the billions of tons we pump into the air every year.

I am NOT saying that the oceans actually add to the CO2, I am saying the oceans are our buffer delaying the increase in the atmosphere!


C
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by zander » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:38 am

HJK 414

Sit down and chill for a while

The only part of the debate being off rails is the part where the deniers post Liers and Propagandist to boldly try and use their statements as truths, time and time again.

You clearly have a misconception of what i Know and think the deniers are trying to do, Off course the deniers is not arguing about the amount of CO2 in the air. They Argue 1, Co2 has no effect whatsoever on climate change when proven the exact opposite to be true, without them being able to prove science wrong.

2.Deny that humans have a significant effect on creating CO2 where automatically they make themselves up to be fools because if they believe co2 is not causing Climate Change why does point 2 by them need to be mentioned here.Idiots

Now...your little paragraph about "too much money in the "climate debate" does nothing to disprove the scientific facts, there is Too much money far beyond ANY climate spending going around the global Dominance Monopolistic Capitalists called BIG OIL spending millions on Propaganda to try and seed lies and deception:

https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/global-w ... ndustries/

No one is perfect, corruption exists, but the facts also exist.

There is no Winning or Losing situation, that's hogwash, the facts are there, they are not hiding and trying to deceive, they are right there !
You can not force people out of their cars or forbid air travel or a cow farting … it is a pipe dream.
But you change the way those systems work, the technology is there and getting better each day.
The solution has to come from technology - and if we spent 10% of the money they are spending in trying to change people's habits - we would have a solution in no time at all.
Exactly.
Let's spend the money on finding a solution - and not by one group telling the others to change their behaviour ...
The debate of "too many people" - too much consumption - too many cars - too reliant on oil is becoming very stale - you wish to shoot half the world's population ? (that would solve it).

Stop yelling that you are right - yes - there is too much CO2 - so have a beer - feel good - celebrate, and now try to become productive - creative and try to add your energy to a solution - instead of emphasizing the problem and blaming others
I as many others on these topics, point out the facts, it's up to the deniers to decide to change their behaviour or not, but they are not making any friends turning a blind eye to reality !

And yes of course you are going to upset people if they continue with lies and deception !

What debate ? There's no debate The facts are out on the table for everyone, it's not deceiving, lying or deliberately misinforming, on the other hand, politicians and propagandists continues to Lie and Get themselves all worked up trying to prove their lies with simply more lies ! All right here on the climate change topics.

The creativity is there, There is and endless supply of that, that i can assure you, and i have many solutions, will the world listen and change ?
Yes definitely, they already do and see through all the lies and deception but unfortunately the real change is going to take time, one cannot live inside a make belief world.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by nicofly » Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:54 am

C Africa wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:22 am
Maybe my post was misinterpreted.

I am simply saying that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are not increasing by nearly as much as the amount of CO2 that gets spewed into the atmosphere because large amounts of that gets dissolved into the oceans.

So simply put, the reservoir of CO2 is much larger than just the atmosphere.

Which is why the percentage in the atmosphere is so VERY VERY low despite the billions of tons we pump into the air every year.

I am NOT saying that the oceans actually add to the CO2, I am saying the oceans are our buffer delaying the increase in the atmosphere!


C
The end result because of Human Co2 contribution is what matters:

To undertstand How Co2 is distributed through the reservoirs and the Human Co2 Contribution, you have to understand how it works.

The Myth:
Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause a CO2 much more severe rise than anything we could produce.” (Jeff Id)

How it works:

Before the industrial revolution, the CO2 content in the air remained quite steady for thousands of years. Natural CO2 is not static, however. It is generated by natural processes, and absorbed by others.

Natural land and ocean carbon remains roughly in balance and have done so for a long time – and we know this because we can measure historic levels of CO2 in the atmosphere both directly (in ice cores) and indirectly (through proxies).

But consider what happens when more CO2 is released from outside of the natural carbon cycle – by burning fossil fuels. Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years).

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by HJK 414 » Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:39 am

zander wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:38 am



.........where the deniers post Liers and Propagandist to boldly try and use their statements as truths, time and time again.

You clearly have a misconception ......….

...….where automatically they make themselves up to be fools ...….

…....Idiots

........global Dominance Monopolistic Capitalists called BIG OIL
.........on Propaganda to try and seed lies and deception:

...….up to the deniers to decide to change their behaviour or not

……. upset people if they continue with lies and deception !

…... politicians and propagandists continues to Lie and Get themselves all worked up trying to prove their lies with simply more lies !

.....through all the lies and deception

…... one cannot live inside a make belief world.

Thank you for illustrating my point …. =D>

Keep banging your head against the wall - and see where you go - and what you achieve with this type of communication that seems to be par for the course when one wishes to have a debate.

JK
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by C Africa » Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:56 am

nicofly wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:54 am
C Africa wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:22 am
Maybe my post was misinterpreted.

I am simply saying that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are not increasing by nearly as much as the amount of CO2 that gets spewed into the atmosphere because large amounts of that gets dissolved into the oceans.

So simply put, the reservoir of CO2 is much larger than just the atmosphere.

Which is why the percentage in the atmosphere is so VERY VERY low despite the billions of tons we pump into the air every year.

I am NOT saying that the oceans actually add to the CO2, I am saying the oceans are our buffer delaying the increase in the atmosphere!


C
The end result because of Human Co2 contribution is what matters:

To undertstand How Co2 is distributed through the reservoirs and the Human Co2 Contribution, you have to understand how it works.

The Myth:
Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause a CO2 much more severe rise than anything we could produce.” (Jeff Id)

How it works:

Before the industrial revolution, the CO2 content in the air remained quite steady for thousands of years. Natural CO2 is not static, however. It is generated by natural processes, and absorbed by others.

Natural land and ocean carbon remains roughly in balance and have done so for a long time – and we know this because we can measure historic levels of CO2 in the atmosphere both directly (in ice cores) and indirectly (through proxies).

But consider what happens when more CO2 is released from outside of the natural carbon cycle – by burning fossil fuels. Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years).

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.
Absolutely, I never argued the opposite. What I was arguing was the alarmist notion that we add 10Billion tons every year to the atmospheric CO2. We add that to the total CO2 cycle of which a very little remains in the air.

If it wasn't for the buffering effect of the oceans, we would have reached unmanageable proportions a long long time ago.

I have seen the "hockey stick" graph of CO2 in the atmosphere. There is no doubt WE are the perpetrators of this. The scientists initially juts failed to understand the full CO2 cycle and their predictions about the growth in CO2 was massively over stated.

We're heading for trouble, no doubt about it. There are just some alarmists who over state the various effects, which is what the OP started with. Methane is NOT the problem, because it is in balance, so all the Methane produced every year just balances out what is being lost (short half life).

So people blaming cows for the global warming are barking up the wrong tree!

C
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by nicofly » Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:26 pm

What remains in the atmosphere is a different topic, What remains is not Low:

The figure below is a plot of the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere (top) versus the total amount of CO2 humans have emitted into the atmosphere (bottom). Several features jump out. Firstly, the similar shape of the curves (hockey stick shaped). We have correlation but do we have causality?

The amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere from the graph have a causality link with the amount of CO2 that remains in the atmosphere. Further confirmation comes by analysing the types of CO2 found in the air. The carbon atom has several different isotopes (eg - different number of neutrons). Carbon 12 has 6 neutrons, carbon 13 has 7 neutrons. Plants have a lower C13/C12 ratio than in the atmosphere. If rising atmospheric CO2 comes from fossil fuels, the C13/C12 should be falling. Indeed this is what is occuring (Ghosh 2003) and the trend correlates with the trend in global emissions.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by zander » Sun Apr 21, 2019 12:35 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:39 am
zander wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:38 am



.........where the deniers post Liers and Propagandist to boldly try and use their statements as truths, time and time again.

You clearly have a misconception ......….

...….where automatically they make themselves up to be fools ...….

…....Idiots

........global Dominance Monopolistic Capitalists called BIG OIL
.........on Propaganda to try and seed lies and deception:

...….up to the deniers to decide to change their behaviour or not

……. upset people if they continue with lies and deception !

…... politicians and propagandists continues to Lie and Get themselves all worked up trying to prove their lies with simply more lies !

.....through all the lies and deception

…... one cannot live inside a make belief world.

Thank you for illustrating my point …. =D>

Keep banging your head against the wall - and see where you go - and what you achieve with this type of communication that seems to be par for the course when one wishes to have a debate.

JK
The truth does not lie, not banging my head against anything like the deniers everyday, i'm siding my perceptions and beliefs up with the truth and reality, proudly so and have seen many generations opening their eyes up because of that, like mentioned there is no debate, only the truth and lies. And the lies have been exposed. =D>
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by coline » Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:56 am

Stop yelling that you are right - yes - there is too much CO2 - so have a beer - feel good - celebrate
Nooo! You cant have a beer. The bubbles are CO2 being released in the atmosphere.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by richard C » Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:50 am

Skymaster

You have started thread after thread going on about climate change denialism.

What is your purpose ? Why is it so important to you ?

Do you have all your savings invested in Chevron ? Do you not want your grandchildren to blame you for a destroyed planet ? I don't understand where you come from, and why you bang on so hard. You believe it is all nonsense, you have said so for years. Why the need for the constant offensive ?
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by cage » Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:46 pm

Richard, I have a theory that most of the enthusiastic deniers are of the older variety and in some cases have little else to do other than watch the news all day and look for conspiracy theories to provide some excitement.
You'd need to be daft to want to risk everything rather than err on the side of caution, particularly since it isn't really going to be an inconvenience to you, and any perceived waste of money is but a drop in the ocean compared to all the other wasted tax money.
Perhaps some people just like sticking huge amounts of plastic into our oceans, or think chest issues from polluted air is just peachy.
Maybe it is just the case that they are of the type that will only believe something once their nose has been stuck in it long enough until they can no longer argue it away.

The academics that I have met aren't really the type that fit into a deniers caricature of scientists.
Much like airline pilots generally fit a "type", it is also true for those in the sciences.
But why ruin a good bit of fiction with reality.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by richard C » Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:33 pm

Totally agree Cage. But Skymaster has an obsessive interest in this discussion, I am now just damned curious as to know why !!

In fact, all his posts seem to be in defense of his generation. What he doesn't seem to understand is that his views are no longer wrong, they are now simply irrelevant. The millennials don't care how they got to inherit an effed-up world, they are focused simply on their task on how to survive in it and hopefully fix it.
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Re: Alarmist scientists continue to get it wrong.

Unread post by Wingnutter » Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:28 am

C Africa wrote:
Sun Apr 21, 2019 10:22 am
Maybe my post was misinterpreted.

I am simply saying that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere are not increasing by nearly as much as the amount of CO2 that gets spewed into the atmosphere because large amounts of that gets dissolved into the oceans.

So simply put, the reservoir of CO2 is much larger than just the atmosphere.

Which is why the percentage in the atmosphere is so VERY VERY low despite the billions of tons we pump into the air every year.

I am NOT saying that the oceans actually add to the CO2, I am saying the oceans are our buffer delaying the increase in the atmosphere!


C
From the American Chemical Society website;

Current concentrations of CO2 are about 390 ppm and CH4 levels exceed 1,770 ppb. Both numbers are much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years.

"Data for the past 2000 years show that the atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O – three important long-lived "greenhouse gases – have increased substantially since about 1750. Rates of increase in levels of these gases are dramatic. CO2, for instance, never increased more than 30 ppm during any previous 1,000-year period in this record but has already risen by 30 ppm in the past two decades."

But what would they know?
If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.

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