The Great Recession?

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Marius Schrenk
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:11 pm

F16 wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:55 pm
Botswana fortunately also does not have the ethnic strife like RSA with the Zulus vs Xhosas tensions etc. The Tswanas has always been a reasonable peaceful bunch.
:? NW has one of the highest farm murder rates of all provinces....try your luck in Rustenburg/Coliny/Ventersdorp/Lichtenburg Mabatho.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by excolonial » Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:55 pm

Johan.botha wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:41 pm
I will move back and ride my flying pink elephant to work life will be good.
:lol: =D>

Single Engine Elephant rating I presume? I think there is a misconception that those of us who are pessimistic about the future of our homeland take pleasure in its downfall and spend our time complaining about it to each other than anyone who will listen. Speaking for myself, and most of those I mix with, the Africa is doomed conversation is usually a one line epithet prior to hours of talking nonsense about every topic under the sun.

I doubt there are many who left Africa with a skip in their step, wishing damnation on those remaining behind (although some undoubtedly had good reason to be bitter). Most leave with a heavy heart, knowing they are leaving part of their soul behind.

Eddie, your economic graph is quite frankly preposterous in its basic assertion, never mind even the most basic scrutiny of the real disposable income it is supposed to represent. A close family member retired by the age of 40, having earned more money than he needs for the rest of his life. All of this in the fastest declining economy in the world. What does that prove? Precisely nothing, except that he saw an opportunity to profit from the misfortune of others, albeit not in a predatory manner.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:44 am

GL wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:57 am
Is it darkest before the dawn, will this recession ever end?
South Africa’s economy remains stuck in its longest downward cycle since 1945, adding to the risk that it may fall into its second recession in a year. The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night. That is after gross domestic product contracted the most in a decade in the three months through March. Bloomberg reports that weak business and factory sentiment added to a risk of a recession. But the South African Reserve Bank reported today that South Africa’s foreign direct investment has swung from outflows in the final quarter of last year to inflows in the first quarter. FDI inflow totalled 11.7 billion rand in the first quarter of the year from outflows of 8.2 billion rand in the last quarter of 2018.
Just some reading material for the weekend and thought to ponder over the weekend braai and beers :?

1. According to Bloomberg report, foreign investors sold SA government securities at average R1,8 Billion per day.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... atus-looms

2. MTN (and other cell services) loose millions and millions on vandalised towers. 53 has been scrapped due to damage and others waiting for spares (batteries, damaged electronics, etc). This will impact business besides MTN's losses. Insurance go up and people battle to do business. (Phones, 3G Data etc) So many people rely on mobile and remote working.
https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa ... t-30824181

3. Sewage plants collapsing which already started causing deceases in I think it was Randfontein earlier this year.
From older article but I am not aware that it improved.
https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-21-sou ... it-the-fan

4. At the rate that semi-governmental organisations need to be bailed out (including municipalities) and state coffers getting empty, the day will come that the government will need to print money to prep up the economy (I hope not, but I do not have faith that it won't happen - it could even be a good thing if handled correctly) and the day will come that the balloon might burst.

5. Not even talking about higher end tax payers and job creators emigrating, companies closing down, Banks retrenching staff (and not only banks).
Strikes, damage to trucks getting burned and looted. (more than 50 trucks burned this year?)

Just added some links. Don't know how much is fake news and accurate.
.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:48 am

paulw wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:44 am
GL wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:57 am
Is it darkest before the dawn, will this recession ever end?
South Africa’s economy remains stuck in its longest downward cycle since 1945, adding to the risk that it may fall into its second recession in a year. The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night. That is after gross domestic product contracted the most in a decade in the three months through March. Bloomberg reports that weak business and factory sentiment added to a risk of a recession. But the South African Reserve Bank reported today that South Africa’s foreign direct investment has swung from outflows in the final quarter of last year to inflows in the first quarter. FDI inflow totalled 11.7 billion rand in the first quarter of the year from outflows of 8.2 billion rand in the last quarter of 2018.
Just some reading material for the weekend and thought to ponder over the weekend braai and beers :?

1. According to Bloomberg report, foreign investors sold SA government securities at average R1,8 Billion per day.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... atus-looms

2. MTN (and other cell services) loose millions and millions on vandalised towers. 53 has been scrapped due to damage and others waiting for spares (batteries, damaged electronics, etc). This will impact business besides MTN's losses. Insurance go up and people battle to do business. (Phones, 3G Data etc) So many people rely on mobile and remote working.
https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa ... t-30824181

3. Sewage plants collapsing which already started causing deceases in I think it was Randfontein earlier this year.
From older article but I am not aware that it improved.
https://mg.co.za/article/2017-07-21-sou ... it-the-fan

4. At the rate that semi-governmental organisations need to be bailed out (including municipalities) and state coffers getting empty, the day will come that the government will need to print money to prep up the economy (I hope not, but I do not have faith that it won't happen - it could even be a good thing if handled correctly) and the day will come that the balloon might burst.

5. Not even talking about higher end tax payers and job creators emigrating, companies closing down, Banks retrenching staff (and not only banks).
Strikes, damage to trucks getting burned and looted. (more than 50 trucks burned this year?)

Just added some links. Don't know how much is fake news and accurate.
Your input is required on the doom and gloom thread:

Go here: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=222112&start=60 :twisted:
The sky is not the limit....
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:47 am

the end is nigh.jpg
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by excolonial » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:56 am

As much as it may be a gloom and doom scenario, it is certainly not just a remote possibility, in fact I think they have been printing money at a growing rate for some time? The only reason the effects of said "easing" have not been felt is simply that nearly every country is doing precisely the same thing. The difference in my opinion is that RSA may suddenly do and Argentina/Germany/Zimbabwe and try and print their way out of a crisis, whereas I think the US/UK will be a little more measured.

That said, as it stands I believe that RSA is in better fiscal shape than almost every single European country bordering the med and some others sitting in the atlantic ocean. Were it not for political interference I believe the outlook would also be better than said countries, however.....

A lighthearted look at an extremely precarious situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by rainier » Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:47 pm

Storm clouds are certainly gathering everywhere you look and yes, good old SA does not look THAT bad right now.
Perhaps it will prove to be a great place to sit back and watch the show unfolding...

Nostradamus was right - I tell you :twisted:
Who said the sky is the limit ? I think not.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:10 pm

Iceberg wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:48 am
paulw wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:44 am
.....
Your input is required on the doom and gloom thread:

Go here: viewtopic.php?f=8&t=222112&start=60 :twisted:
:twisted: The guys are managing there, needed to spice up this one....

But serious, the items I mentioned will all be result of economy and at the same time add to a recession....eventually...a viscous circle...like a spiral dive
If enough people get sick and die from deceases, etc, etc....
.
Don't believe what I post, research what I post....
They have a book on how to take my money away? When did this happen......

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