The Great Recession?

Aviation Trivia, Jokes & Humour

Moderator: Moderators

User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:14 pm

bosvark wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:37 pm
There are enough facts and detail available pointing towards the fact that we are in a downward spiral as a country. Politically, socially, judicially, and due to that, economically. "Skilled debate" and playing words will not change that. Anyone who cannot see that this country is in deep $h!t and getting in deeper is either a fool, very naive or is living on a pink cloud. Twenty/twenty five years ago few people believed that what has happened, could happen. And it has. There are NO indications of a turn around. To the contrary...
Impossible!.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
These users liked the author Jack Welles for the post:
bosvark
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
Swartbok
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 755
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2014 6:15 pm
Closest Airfield: Wonderboom
Location: Gauteng
Has liked: 26 times
Been liked: 76 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:36 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:14 pm
bosvark wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:37 pm
There are enough facts and detail available pointing towards the fact that we are in a downward spiral as a country. Politically, socially, judicially, and due to that, economically. "Skilled debate" and playing words will not change that. Anyone who cannot see that this country is in deep $h!t and getting in deeper is either a fool, very naive or is living on a pink cloud. Twenty/twenty five years ago few people believed that what has happened, could happen. And it has. There are NO indications of a turn around. To the contrary...
Impossible!.jpg
Yip
Following the new dawn Democratic ideals of Nelson Mandela and the ANC, it would just be Impossible to go wrong.
Until it’s possible ?
:roll: :roll:
Flying is like sex. I've never had all I wanted but occasionally I've had all I could stand.
User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:07 am

Swartbok wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:36 pm
Following the new dawn Democratic ideals of Nelson Mandela and the ANC, it would just be Impossible to go wrong.
Until it’s possible ? :roll: :roll:
Negativity is a signpost to the slough of despond 8)
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
User avatar
Iceberg
Too Tousand
Too Tousand
Posts: 2652
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:09 pm
Closest Airfield: FAWB
Location: Pretoria
Has liked: 35 times
Been liked: 63 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:13 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:07 am
Swartbok wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:36 pm
Following the new dawn Democratic ideals of Nelson Mandela and the ANC, it would just be Impossible to go wrong.
Until it’s possible ? :roll: :roll:
Negativity is a signpost to the slough of despond 8)
The pessimist sees the dark tunnel.
The optimist sees the light at the end of the tunnel.
The realist sees the train coming.

The Engineer sees three idiots on the tracks.
These users liked the author Iceberg for the post (total 3):
HJK 414omarbACE MAN
The sky is not the limit....
ZS-MDK
Karl Eschberger
User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:52 am

Myopia never won fair maiden 8) :lol:
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
Mouser
Airspeed active
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2015 1:31 pm
Closest Airfield: King Shaka
Location: Durban
Has liked: 72 times
Been liked: 11 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Mouser » Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:49 am

Note the urban legend comment about being a Jew in, say, 1936 Germany, from another forum.

"The pessimists got a house with a swimming pool in New York, the optimists a bunk in Dachau."
User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:42 am

Say not the struggle naught availeth, the labour and the wounds are vain
The enemy faints not, nor faileth. And as things have been they remain.

If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke concealed, your comrades chase e'en now the fliers, and, but for you, possess the field.

Only time will tell .....
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
User avatar
Whirly
10000 and still climbing
10000 and still climbing
Posts: 11835
Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:25 pm
Closest Airfield: Ermelo
Location: Mpumalanga
Has liked: 7 times
Been liked: 148 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Whirly » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:03 am

Whirly wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:20 pm
Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:06 pm
Whirly wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:00 pm

Not really. If 500 leave, it is close to 10% of the total tax payers, quite significant I would think? :? Whirly.
Nope, Whirly, I know you're working really hard to justify a negative approach but we really can't accomodate you (as much as I would like to, being a friendly, naive soul) by accepting that 500 is 10% of 7 600 000 registered (but might not reach the threshhold) or even 2 100 000 who are more likely to be contributors. Seriously, every bit helps but it's not a train smash that some folk are leaving. Many of them have retired anyway so are no longer that active economically.

FDI is very very important. That generates jobs and that's a million times more important than some tax Rands flowing (or not flowing) to the fiscus. In any event the economic activity generated by FDI generates far more money for the fiscus by creating new taxpayers and, even more importantly, the indirect taxes that flow to the fiscus as a result of the additional economic activity.
Jack,

My figure of 500 taxpayers is per month,21 000 people emigrated last year. If the brain drain continues at this pace, FDI would cease in years to come. But what do I know? :?

I also think you are mistaken by thinking that many of the people leaving have retired, I think they are in the minority.

Whirly.
OK, let me continue where I left off in a hurry on Friday. I needed to explain a bit better. My 500 taxpayers per month is just an estimate. But when one looks at a figure of 21 000 people emigrating yearly, then guessing that 6-7000 of them were taxpayers can't be too far off. They might only be 1% of the total number of taxpayers as quoted by Jack, but they are not insignificant. In the case of my son and his wife, they were both taxpayers, when the four of them (son, his wife and two daughters) left, 50% were taxpayers.

My reason is that they definitely are not at the bottom of the tax scale, and most are not retirees. I read the National Treasury statistics report that 82.6% of the 2019/2020 income tax collections will be paid by only 2.1 million taxpayers. Another claim stated that 1.7 million people (3% of the population) pay 80% of income tax. 6=7000 taxpayers leaving per year will definitely make a huge impact. 8-[

Whirly.

Whirly.
Every dog needs a home and every home needs a dog (or two or three).
User avatar
Pheonix137
Steep Turn Left
Posts: 306
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:24 am
Closest Airfield: FAWK
Location: Pretoria
Has liked: 0
Been liked: 0

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Pheonix137 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:17 am

An interesting video published by the Institue of Race Relations paints various scenarios for South Africa and the coming years.



The important point he raises is that the future predictions are unlikely to be accurate, but that different scenarios are plausible, depending on the variables to come. He suggest that it is important to consider ALL scenarios and make sure you are coverred in each one.

I suggest watching to the question and answer session at the end - some exceptional information is discussed...
the sky is the limit.
C Africa
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 856
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2014 7:59 am
Closest Airfield: Wonderboom
Location: Pretoria
Has liked: 3 times
Been liked: 38 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by C Africa » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am

Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

To all the pessimists, have you checked what the Rand has been doing in the last few days? Seems the market has improved its view of what is happening in this country. I'm an African, and they will bury me right here in this country. Things are really bad at the moment, but I am one of those people who believe things can actually improve. Call me naïve, ok.


C
These users liked the author C Africa for the post:
ACE MAN
User avatar
Whirly
10000 and still climbing
10000 and still climbing
Posts: 11835
Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:25 pm
Closest Airfield: Ermelo
Location: Mpumalanga
Has liked: 7 times
Been liked: 148 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Whirly » Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:21 pm

C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am
Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

To all the pessimists, have you checked what the Rand has been doing in the last few days? Seems the market has improved its view of what is happening in this country. I'm an African, and they will bury me right here in this country. Things are really bad at the moment, but I am one of those people who believe things can actually improve. Call me naïve, ok.


C
C Africa,

I am pretty open minded and open to counter facts, not like some others. I only speak from a personal point of view.

In my circle, I do not know of one family/person that returned. I do know of many that have left, friends and family. I was speaking to my nephew today, he retired last year and to keep busy he joined a real estate company in Cape Town where he lives. He tells me that in the housing market today, 15% of those that sell do so to emigrate, the figure was 9% last year.

He sold his Merc to a well known national vehicle company and the agent, who sees 5 clients per day, told him that 2 out of every 5 people he sees, sell to emigrate. They have 26 agents buying vehicles all over the country so I wonder what the stats for the rest of them are?

I need to stick around for a few more years, so as negative as I may sound, I hope the rest of you a so very right! :D

Whirly.
These users liked the author Whirly for the post:
ACE MAN
Every dog needs a home and every home needs a dog (or two or three).
Peblehead
Pre-take off checks
Posts: 82
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:23 pm
Closest Airfield: Foar26ly
Has liked: 8 times
Been liked: 8 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Peblehead » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:07 pm

C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am
Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

To all the pessimists, have you checked what the Rand has been doing in the last few days? Seems the market has improved its view of what is happening in this country. I'm an African, and they will bury me right here in this country. Things are really bad at the moment, but I am one of those people who believe things can actually improve. Call me naïve, ok.


C
The Rand is one of the most traded currencies, the improvement we enjoy at the moment has little to do with our own landscape and is brought on by factors out of our control.
User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:33 pm

Back on topic it looks as though SA may have entered a second technical recession for the second quarter. I really don't think that that qualifies as a "great" recession, which is what I, effectively, responded to when replying to the OP's original post.

The OP's subject line and posed question made it sound as though it was a 2007/9 deja vu, all over again (as Yogi Berra would have it :lol: )

For the meaning of a "Great Recession" please see wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession

The 2007/9 situation was likened by the IMF (and Bernanke) as the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression (note difference in terminology) and it is frequently seen as the second worst downturn of all time.
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
RichieRich
Steep Turn Left
Posts: 308
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2009 4:57 pm
Has liked: 0
Been liked: 0

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by RichieRich » Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:14 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:56 pm
Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:58 am
So let's get the grammar right then:

This is the crux of the quote the OP mentioned:
"The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night"
So let's continue the discussion about when the "weakening cycle" is going to reverse.

So if you are not disgruntled about this fact that the Reseve Bank tells us, you are living in a bubble which could soon burst.
Oh my goodness, gracious me! I can hear the drumbeat of the hooves as we speak. Armageddon is upon us. The Apocalypse is here! The four horsemen - conquest, war, famine and death - are on the horizon - the end is nigh - NOT!.

Have another look at this terrible, evil, wicked, nasty cyclical ups and downs (very few of which don't even qualify as a "recession"!) starting from 1945, nogal.

Firstly, don't forget the idiotic Nats ran things pretty much for the first 50+ of those years so they're responsible for the majority of the cyclical ups and downs, the current idiots have only been in charge for 24 years.

Secondly, let's take a closer look at that terrible 74 year of ups and downs. More people in SA are better off now than 74 years ago. More people have access to medical help than then. More people have access to education (no matter how imperfect). There are more dollar millionaires. There is more business activity, access to sports, more infrastructure etc etc I could go on ...

It really isn't that bleak. Could it be better? Should it be better? Have people made a dog's breakfast of it?

A resounding yes to all of those, but it still isn't as bleak as the Afriforums and Steve Hofmeyers and their fellow travellers would have us believe. Their noses are just out of joint because they don't rule the roost anymore.

Admittedly Africa is not for those that want a quiet life. And it's perfectly right that they should leave for more restful shores. Us patriots will hang in like we did when the stormtroopers ran things and - guess what? - ultimately we saw them off - now all we have to do is sort the corrupt and greedy - how difficult can that be? :lol:
As we are getting onto the language gestapo pedantics in the interests of accuracy here we may as well go further and get accurate in everything! The Nats were not in power for 50+ years. They were in power for 46 years. 46 years in which the economy grew and they spent more on non-paying citizens of the country in terms of health and education than any other country in Africa. The ANC have been in power for more than 24 years. 25 to be accurate. The more people in SA being better off now than in the past is also inaccurate as if they are better off now then why is the country being burned up every day over so-called "lack of service delivery' and why are we normal motorists warned to not use the N3 at night and why can we no longer stop on the side of the road and why are law-abidiong citizens living behind bars while criminals roam the streets freely and why is the drug problem out of control and why are we raising a nation of morons who cannot even read their matric certificates and why, when Saffers move to Mocambique(poorest country in the world at the time the ANC "inherited a bankrupt South Africa") are their children held back a year because our education has fallen beneath theirs? SA scored 146th out of 146 countries(which included Zimbabwe and war-torn Syria) in Maths and Science! Much better for all I guess....NOT!! Ramaphoria has clearly not died down in certain peoples minds or is it hope beating eternal in the human breast?
Grabbing popcorn, chewing gum and some Canada Dry(damn! will have to settle for a beer as Canada Dry no longer available in the New Improved South Africa!) and pulling up the lazy boy!
User avatar
Jack Welles
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3842
Joined: Mon Dec 02, 2013 1:15 pm
Closest Airfield: FACT
Location: Muizenberg
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 184 times

Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:14 pm

Sheeesh, relax, dude.

I really don't think it's pedantic to point out that there's a humongous economic difference between a weakening cycle, a technical recession and the so-called Great Recession (of 2007-2009, which some reckon was worse than the Great Depression of 1929).

The latter two are very specific periods in the world's economic timeline so I thought it was not only inappropriate but also inaccurate to use that very specific economic period/occasion called the "Great Recession" in the subject line to refer to SA's current admittedly parlous economic circumstances.
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com

Return to “123.45”