The Great Recession?

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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:54 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:14 pm
Sheeesh, relax, dude.

I really don't think it's pedantic to point out that there's a humongous economic difference between a weakening cycle, a technical recession and the so-called Great Recession (of 2007-2009, which some reckon was worse than the Great Depression of 1929).

The latter two are very specific periods in the world's economic timeline so I thought it was not only inappropriate but also inaccurate to use that very specific economic period/occasion called the "Great Recession" in the subject line to refer to SA's current admittedly parlous economic circumstances.
Just like a lot of other posters post thaughts and ideas, and are ripped apart by the perfect police and are labeled stupid?

“relax dude”, maybe some own medicine might be appropriate.

Quid Pro Quo
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:40 pm

Yeah Yeah I know.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:26 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:40 pm
Yeah Yeah I know. Banned 14 days
Nah! It's up to the mods but if I have a vote I think it should be left up for any Avcommers who may be interested to see the quality of the response :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by cage » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:34 pm

Good to see nothing has changed here, you still can't mention politics without chumming the waters of the angry, frustrated and disenfranchised and waiting for the inevitable shirtshow that follows.
As for the economy, who cares. What can any of you do about it anyway?
Perpetuating the cycle of negativity and angst doesn't make anyone feel better about the world.
No one seems to look at the global economy and what that also means for emerging markets.

You read these posts from the same unhappy chappies and you would swear its end of days, yet here we are.
In the real world its a more moderate view, probably because the internet and social media allows all those consumed by unhappiness to gather together and validate their outlooks.

Seriously chaps, don't stress about things you can do nothing about. Use that energy for doing something positive in your life instead of just spreading more unhappiness.
It's exhausting reading it, must be knackering to live in that bubble of unhappiness.

There are plenty of affordable shrinks that can help get some mental balance, failing that CBD oil is freely available - put a few drops in your soup and catch a relax.

:smt033
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Richard007 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:39 pm

Actually, it is that bleak. Even far worse.

If you consider the debt trajectory, it is unsustainable. Govt debt was at 56% in March and will realistically pack on 5-6% this year alone. My view is that if decisive action was taken now(which it hasn't) the debt would not stabilize below 80% of GDP. This excludes state guaranteed debt and the mountain of ever increasing SOE debt. The long term yield curve shows higher cost of debt A debt crunch is now a matter of time, it is bankrupt.

The govt wage bill is unsustainable. A third of the budget goes to the wage bill. There are no signs of this moderating. There are also more people on benefits than there are paying tax. Expectations from those that down contribute have been driven to outrageous levels, free education, free land, free medical cover, free everything.

Marxist policies have created an intensely business unfriendly environment. Mining sector has been treated brutally, agriculture is under attack, manufacturing is generally downsizing. Construction sector is obliterated. This downward momentum would be difficult to arrest in a progressive environment, in an oppressive environment it seems to be seen as positive statistic. It supports the political narrative to lend further support to the failing SOE's. These SOE's are extremely beneficial to the connected few who continue to strip them for personal benefit.

High rates of emigration of economically active and skilled people continues to accelerate. The high increasing unemployment rate is at 28%. Youth unemployment is above 50%.

Then there is the rest. Rampant corruption. Outrageous crime levels. Collapsing infrastructure. Collapsing civil society. Loss of confidence. Continued slide in international ranking of consequence. Etc. There really is no good news.

As for the fallacy that people are better off now:
The tepid growth is outstripped by population growth. People are therefore poorer. GDP per capita in hard currency is well down in the last decade.

If you call what the Joburg Gen offers up to be medical care then you have a low bar for acceptance. Of 696 state facilities 5 are compliant in the Govts own version.

Access to education? The World Economic Forum rates SA last of 148 countries for math's and science. The state education system has been broken.

The country is under the control of crime. The average citizen has no protection from it.

The only people that can look at this mess and see hope or success are those who are benefitting from the system. If you are selling water to SAA for R17 a bottle or paper to the municipality for R1200 then you are styling. Just like the thugs in the last round, you should continue to steal all you can while you can. The end is nigh and South Africa will pay dearly for what it has done.

Look around you, these are the good ol days.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:56 pm

cage wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:34 pm
Good to see nothing has changed here, you still can't mention politics without chumming the waters of the angry, frustrated and disenfranchised and waiting for the inevitable shirtshow that follows.
As for the economy, who cares. What can any of you do about it anyway?
Perpetuating the cycle of negativity and angst doesn't make anyone feel better about the world.
No one seems to look at the global economy and what that also means for emerging markets.

You read these posts from the same unhappy chappies and you would swear its end of days, yet here we are.
In the real world its a more moderate view, probably because the internet and social media allows all those consumed by unhappiness to gather together and validate their outlooks.

Seriously chaps, don't stress about things you can do nothing about. Use that energy for doing something positive in your life instead of just spreading more unhappiness.
It's exhausting reading it, must be knackering to live in that bubble of unhappiness.

There are plenty of affordable shrinks that can help get some mental balance, failing that CBD oil is freely available - put a few drops in your soup and catch a relax.

:smt033
Haven’t been paying much attention ?

If it’s exhausting reading it then DON’T read.

And some people are trying to do what they can about it. Making a plan. We don’t need people butting in for the pure reason of saying, you guys are stupid and demented.

That’s just being nasty, for the pure delight of being nasty.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:02 pm

cage wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:34 pm
As for the economy, who cares. What can any of you do about it anyway?
Perpetuating the cycle of negativity and angst doesn't make anyone feel better about the world.
No one seems to look at the global economy and what that also means for emerging markets.

You read these posts from the same unhappy chappies and you would swear its end of days, yet here we are.
In the real world its a more moderate view, probably because the internet and social media allows all those consumed by unhappiness to gather together and validate their outlooks. :smt033
Interesting approach. I've been wondering about this recently. There seems to be, for want of a better description/label, macro and micro economies.

On a macro you're looking at recessions (technical or "Great" or whatever) major corruption, disastrous Rand exchange rate, political shenanigans, some really awful pols, terrible crime figures, all solid media "if it bleeds, it leads" stuff, govt hospitals no good, bad economic trajectory, out-of-control population growth, terrible govt schools, the apocalypse is upon us, SA is doomed, etc.

On a micro you're looking at day-to-day living, interactions with folk (of all descriptions) on a street level, business opportunities, pretty good standard standard of living for those who have decent jobs/businesses, world class medical for med aid folk etc.

Now obviously over time a lousy exchange rate will affect the price of petrol and other imports (while opening up opportunities of course, for those with half a brain cell to spare, in exports etc) and the corruption is frustrating for those who live a clean life and wish everyone else did as well BUT from where I'm sitting the macro doesn't really seem to have a direct affect on the micro.

On a personal level profits are still rising, I don't personally know anyone who has been the victim of violent crime (not saying it hasn't happened to others, just talking about my micro world), profitable deals are still being done, weather is good (it's even raining in CT much to the chagrin of all the naysayers who claimed that CoCT has us all doomed because of their screwups, which I never experienced and I actually live in CT), surf boards are still reasonably priced, money coming in faster than its going out, local restuarants still churn out decent grub for a decent price, car guards still give me a high five when I run by in the am, the odd (black) taxi gives me a friendly hoot which is quite decent of them because I really don't run very fast anymore, the supermarkets are stocked with lots of goodies, the garage always has fuel when I want it etc etc

And no I don't do any govt business at all, not even to sell water to SAA :lol:

It seems that in the short-term on a day-to-day basis the dramatic macro world doesn't have a hello of a lot to do with the ordinary folks' micro world.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:15 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:26 pm
Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:40 pm
Yeah Yeah I know. Banned 14 days
Nah! It's up to the mods but if I have a vote I think it should be left up for any Avcommers who may be interested to see the quality of the response :lol:
If you mean grammatical and language based, your quite correct. And I won’t even blame fat fingers or autocorrect for it. You win

If your talking about content, you’ll find that by scrolling back among these pages and some others that I fall in the category of leaning with majority sentiment and you are out numbered.

So yeah, “quality of response” is in the eye of the beer holder.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:18 pm

Whirly wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:43 pm
The local population is growing faster than the economy, people who can afford it are leaving and so the tax base is decreasing. Not really a formula for success now, is it? :?

Jip, I was just sitting this afternoon checking something I mentioned last year in the Emigration thread.
I was in a team at a bank in SA. The team consisted of 18-20 highly skilled people "recruited" from other departments each specialist in own area. We investigated the critical IT systems and fixed issues. Each system taking a few months.
How many are left?
1 emigrated 26 months ago.
8 (including myself) since October last year.
2 others busy, still looking for jobs overseas.
2 others want to but partners don't want to. Maybe they still will.

And that is just from my small team. I know of plenty of others at the bank who left already plus others at other companies.
There are literally people emigrating daily. Fact. Some trying very hard.

This will not help PAYE income for SARS. Less people to buy from shops which accelerate in closing down. ( a lot more closed down in April this year than April last year.
Less Company Tax.
There are people who own their own businesses who just close down as they cannot get the business sold. People now end out of a job.

Municipalities need to be bailed out now at a rate of knots besides SAA and Escom.
Money will be printed to cover all of this. (with no backup)

Will not help any decline in economy.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:27 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:02 pm
cage wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:34 pm
As for the economy, who cares. What can any of you do about it anyway?
Perpetuating the cycle of negativity and angst doesn't make anyone feel better about the world.
No one seems to look at the global economy and what that also means for emerging markets.

You read these posts from the same unhappy chappies and you would swear its end of days, yet here we are.
In the real world its a more moderate view, probably because the internet and social media allows all those consumed by unhappiness to gather together and validate their outlooks. :smt033
Interesting approach. I've been wondering about this recently. There seems to be, for want of a better description/label, macro and micro economies.

On a macro you're looking at recessions (technical or "Great" or whatever) major corruption, disastrous Rand exchange rate, political shenanigans, some really awful pols, terrible crime figures, all solid media "if it bleeds, it leads" stuff, govt hospitals no good, bad economic trajectory, out-of-control population growth, terrible govt schools, the apocalypse is upon us, SA is doomed, etc.

On a micro you're looking at day-to-day living, interactions with folk (of all descriptions) on a street level, business opportunities, pretty good standard standard of living for those who have decent jobs/businesses, world class medical for med aid folk etc.

Now obviously over time a lousy exchange rate will affect the price of petrol and other imports (while opening up opportunities of course, for those with half a brain cell to spare, in exports etc) and the corruption is frustrating for those who live a clean life and wish everyone else did as well BUT from where I'm sitting the macro doesn't really seem to have a direct affect on the micro.

On a personal level profits are still rising, I don't personally know anyone who has been the victim of violent crime (not saying it hasn't happened to others, just talking about my micro world), profitable deals are still being done, weather is good (it's even raining in CT much to the chagrin of all the naysayers who claimed that CoCT has us all doomed because of their screwups, which I never experienced and I actually live in CT), surf boards are still reasonably priced, money coming in faster than its going out, local restuarants still churn out decent grub for a decent price, car guards still give me a high five when I run by in the am, the odd (black) taxi gives me a friendly hoot which is quite decent of them because I really don't run very fast anymore, the supermarkets are stocked with lots of goodies, the garage always has fuel when I want it etc etc

And no I don't do any govt business at all, not even to sell water to SAA :lol:

It seems that in the short-term on a day-to-day basis the dramatic macro world doesn't have a hello of a lot to do with the ordinary folks' micro world.
In your third paragraph you mention “micro” and later continue to elaborate that you have not been touched on that level. However your take on that is disingenuous, as people all over SA are increasingly affected on the micro level. As is many here.

It’s laughable to believe your untouched world is general consensus among the population.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:33 pm

By your general sentiment and objective statistics in these threads:

If I had 4 children and one was murdered, I’m still generally well of as I’ve only lost 25% of my offspring, so nothing to complain about, however reality is a very different picture, don’t you think?

CRM and man/ machine interface is not everyone’s strong suit, yet necessary.
Last edited by Swartbok on Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:37 pm

C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am
Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

I don't believe that. The Homecoming Revolution try to get people to return for ages.
They publish figures of people wanting to come back (first generation abroad) but not actually coming back.
Yes lots of people cannot adapt in the colder countries and those who miss families but still stay.

One of the ministers mentioned the other day only one skill person is coming to SA (probably new immigrant and not SA person returning) for every so many (I think was 16) leaving.
I know of very very few people who emigrated who returned to SA and most regret it afterwards and emigrate again or at least want to.
There are some who cannot make it abroad and return. It happens.

So I take any articles based on Homecoming Revolution statements with a pinch of salt.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by cage » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:38 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:56 pm

Haven’t been paying much attention ?

If it’s exhausting reading it then DON’T read.

And some people are trying to do what they can about it. Making a plan. We don’t need people butting in for the pure reason of saying, you guys are stupid and demented.

That’s just being nasty, for the pure delight of being nasty.
Nope SB, it’s just people disagreeing with what is a 100% negative view and 0% of anything else.
Unfortunately the really unhappy ones tend to have a very thin skin and only want to be validated.
Whether or not you like it, when anyone gets to the end of day’s mindset and is unable to see any good then all balance has been lost and some therapy to deal with anger, anxiety etc is probably needed.
If you took all of the energy here that is being spent on pointless emotion and channeled that into something more positive, people may just find the world a better place.
I could try explain why I disagree in more day to day terms, but let’s be honest, the departed and wannabe-departees would have no interest nor do they appreciate that this negative mental state will follow them wherever they go.
The only people that like negative people are other negative people.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:40 pm

paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:37 pm
C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am
Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

I don't believe that. The Homecoming Revolution try to get people to return for ages.
They publish figures of people wanting to come back (first generation abroad) but not actually coming back.
Yes lots of people cannot adapt in the colder countries and those who miss families but still stay.

One of the ministers mentioned the other day only one skill person is coming to SA (probably new immigrant and not SA person returning) for every so many (I think was 16) leaving.
I know of very very few people who emigrated who returned to SA and most regret it afterwards and emigrate again or at least want to.
There are some who cannot make it abroad and return. It happens.

So I take any articles based on Homecoming Revolution statements with a pinch of salt.
I believe the statistic (for the perfectionist folk)is 1 in, 8 out. But you point remains very valid.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:44 pm

cage wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:38 pm
I could try explain why I disagree in more day to day terms, but let’s be honest, the departed and wannabe-departees would have no interest nor do they appreciate that this negative mental state will follow them wherever they go.
The only people that like negative people are other negative people.
:lol: :lol:
I must agree with that somewhat. I was very negative about SA crime and economical prospects, etc.
I am now in Ireland literally looking up from my laptop looking out of the window (I can send you a photo) watching sheep in the field next door gracing there and I am now negative about the weather (nothing else though)
We had nice weather last few weeks but cloudy and grey today with some mist in the distance.
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