The Great Recession?

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paulw
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:46 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:40 pm
paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:37 pm
C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:42 am
Whirly,

have a look at this article: https://www.sapeople.com/2019/06/25/no- ... slz5Qrb1KQ

You have to consider both sides of the coin, and subtract the number of people returning from the ones leaving. There seems to be a fairly active "Brain gain" going on, with disillusioned leavers returning to SA.

I don't believe that. The Homecoming Revolution try to get people to return for ages.
They publish figures of people wanting to come back (first generation abroad) but not actually coming back.
Yes lots of people cannot adapt in the colder countries and those who miss families but still stay.

One of the ministers mentioned the other day only one skill person is coming to SA (probably new immigrant and not SA person returning) for every so many (I think was 16) leaving.
I know of very very few people who emigrated who returned to SA and most regret it afterwards and emigrate again or at least want to.
There are some who cannot make it abroad and return. It happens.

So I take any articles based on Homecoming Revolution statements with a pinch of salt.
I believe the statistic (for the perfectionist folk)is 1 in, 8 out. But you point remains very valid.
Thanks for the correction :smt023
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:58 pm

paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:44 pm
cage wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:38 pm
I could try explain why I disagree in more day to day terms, but let’s be honest, the departed and wannabe-departees would have no interest nor do they appreciate that this negative mental state will follow them wherever they go.
The only people that like negative people are other negative people.

I must agree with that somewhat. I was very negative about SA crime and economical prospects, etc.
I am now in Ireland literally looking up from my laptop looking out of the window (I can send you a photo) watching sheep in the field next door gracing there and I am now negative about the weather (nothing else though)
We had nice weather last few weeks but cloudy and grey today with some mist in the distance.
Yip, I’m very negative in my current home as well, just can’t wait to come back as soon as therapy is complete.
:lol: :lol: :lol:

As an objective aside . You can start a “why SA is the best thread” to find your validation, I might just pop in for a comment, I might not.

Haven’t seen very many “positive” threads though.
I’m glad your positive and I wouldn’t walk into your positive circle of friends proclaiming how stupid and positive you are and how exhausting it is to listen to it, I’d rather steer away and let you be. (Maybe the gentleman in me)

That sentiment is however not reciprocated by the “positive”.

I bet if I start a positive thread about expat life, the usual two suspects would drop by to claim “how negative” everyone here is.
Thereby proving that you might not necessarily be a positive person, only positive about one aspect however generally wanting to p:ss on everyone else’s parade.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:23 pm

paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:46 pm
Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:40 pm
paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:37 pm



I don't believe that. The Homecoming Revolution try to get people to return for ages.
They publish figures of people wanting to come back (first generation abroad) but not actually coming back.
Yes lots of people cannot adapt in the colder countries and those who miss families but still stay.

One of the ministers mentioned the other day only one skill person is coming to SA (probably new immigrant and not SA person returning) for every so many (I think was 16) leaving.
I know of very very few people who emigrated who returned to SA and most regret it afterwards and emigrate again or at least want to.
There are some who cannot make it abroad and return. It happens.

So I take any articles based on Homecoming Revolution statements with a pinch of salt.
I believe the statistic (for the perfectionist folk)is 1 in, 8 out. But you point remains very valid.
Thanks for the correction :smt023
Another small trend I’ve picked up is, people abroad make their money and return to SA reasonably rich.
As a rich person in SA your life could be good, with dollar investment based income and a possible escape. (bar murder and robbery and you’ll be labelled a rich Mlungu who stole our money). However with the increasing cry to share one’s wealth I’ve also seen many people turning away from this possibility. Hence my opinion among my peers to not return and invest which could have created jobs (at least for a small business), hence adding to the economic depression and Capital outflow or non-inflow.

I’m sure though I’ll be corrected on how insignificant this effect will be. You can’t eat a cow on the whole, you’ll have to braai it steak by steak.

So 1% is insignificant, but 1% +1% + 1%+1% ..... you get my drift.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Swartbok » Sat Jul 06, 2019 11:58 pm

And a small note, among my peers in aviation, 90% who I’ve known for 20 years plus. I’m the positive one. Who still owns property in SA in the hope it might get better. Go figure.

Of course I’ll get shot down for one foot here, one foot there.
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The great transition

Unread post by Johan.botha » Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:08 am

South Africa is not is a great recession, its the great change. The country does not want a western style economy with free market principles. The government has made this clear and the voters clearly support it. It is in a state of slow and painful transition where right now nobody likes what they have. Except perhaps for those that benefit massively from the current system, everyone else wants something else.

The new equilibrium will be a very different picture. I would guess a state run 'economy' is where it will head. This will include high tax rates, high debt levels, increasing protectionism, etc. The underlying philosophy is Marxist. The land issue has gone too far to turn back, realistically wide scale dispossession is likely. It will move towards a primary economy with limited manufacturing and construction capabilities.

The white population will continue to dwindle. No one knows its exact size now but we all know its shrunk. The current departure surge appears to be the biggest yet. Like the situation in so many other African states there will be the die hards but the young adults leave for places more aligned with their expectations and the older folks live out their days complaining.

In the end SA will continue to tend in the direction of the continent. A big and growing population, few of which have education or economic prospects and the super wealthy ruling class.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by cage » Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:32 am

Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:58 pm
I bet if I start a positive thread about expat life, the usual two suspects would drop by to claim “how negative” everyone here is.
Thereby proving that you might not necessarily be a positive person, only positive about one aspect however generally wanting to p:ss on everyone else’s parade.
You're missing the point.
Take the post further up, it is a list of some of the terrible things that have happened (and continue to do so) to good people.
Somehow in this person's mind thats just how it is, every day, every moment.
I often wonder if we're living in the same country (those of us here that actually do).
Thing is, people drive down the N2/N3 every day without ending up dead, cars break down and people survive it.
While some crime has affected the many people I know, none of it lives up to the image portrayed by some here.

I could take the bad things that happen in London and create a similar post on some UK expat forum, with brexit there are probably plenty of blackBambis on fora sprouting the same sentiments, albeit for different reasons.

I don't see why differing views need to ignore posts here, particularly when those posting only seem to expect everyone to agree with them.

There are many things that concern me about SA, I have also lived abroad. The difference between me and others here is that I made my changes and never felt the need to continue to be so angry on political topics, I just moved on, others just seem to be lost without stuff to feed their unhappiness. I have also never wasted energy on blaming others, being a victim or worrying about things I can't control, I focus on what can be done to change my own situation.
You can't control your environment but you can choose how you react to it.
It took a traumatic event to gain some perspective about what was important and to not get lost in the noise.

From posts, bannings etc here you can only determine that some have got so lost in the emotion that they really just don't know which way is up any longer.
There are so many people in really cr@ppy situations that still get up with a smile on their face and would love to swap lives with those "terrible" existences that some seem to think they have.

Every time you want to dwell on everything that is wrong with our little patch of sun, try think of a couple of good things, you may just feel better for it.

Anyway, I will return to hibernation. Like last year, and the year before, there will be the same guys talking about stuff that makes them unhappy and doing little about it, apart from continuing to be unhappy and trying to recruit some company for the campfire.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:43 am

I think that for some its the "apocalypse" and others "opportunity" and that's not going to change - viva la difference 8)

As an aside: had a lekker curry at the local Indian eatery last night, we've had good rain in CT this week, the sun's shining and surf's up in Muizies =D>

Oh yes! Against all odds we beat the Egyptians and we beat the Australians - yahoo!

The latter is known as cold comfort :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:15 am

There is a big discrepancy in this debate in my view.

It is easy enough to state that one should see the “positive things” in life and stand up with a smile on your face if you have a nice house overlooking the sea – or a great job and some money to spend. Many of us fly / flew for fun and spend sums of money in a weekend of “fun” that should keep another family fed for a month.

We seem to forget that South Africa has changed over the last few decades and that a reasonable long term perspective – especially for a large part of the population and their children has become somewhat of a luxury. Children are being educated to a standard that is accepted in no other country in the world and the value of certificates from South African “educational institutes” are slowly dwindling down to the level of the education.

One should give some thought to those that have lost their business or job / those that have lost their farms or have seen their livestock / game stolen. Those that have seen their asset portfolio being decimated, and have seen their pensions de-value to a level that makes it impossible to sustain oneself, let alone feed a family.

One could feel for those that hoped for change – just to see that they have bet on the wrong horse and are often now stuck – nowhere to go.

Then add the uncertainty of EWC and the possibility that some would lose whatever assets they still have – and then what do they do in a country with a government that “cares” along racial lines.

There are many that do not have the income to live in a nice guarded estate / and have to live behind burglar bars with locks on their doors. There are those that are living on farms and small holdings and in constant fear of being attacked.

There are plenty of people that would love to leave – they would walk to the closest airport barefoot if offered a way out – but do not have the assets / or financial capacity to start again elsewhere / let alone find the funds to get a Visa or residency in another country.

Those people may have some problems getting up with a smile – and seeing the positive things of the day. They may not have the luxury of going for a hop in a Multi Million $ Aircraft. They may not have the luxury of a nice glass of wine in the evening sunset overlooking the Ocean. Their livelihood is based on getting through this month – and then the next …….in a country that is sliding – the wrong way.

Those people do not have the luxury of C’est La Vie – and an attitude of “lets see what the future brings” with a smile on our faces. They do not have the luxury of a second passport – and life is getting harder – by the day – and they sometimes need to vent their frustration.
Perhaps our understanding will do more for them than the criticism on their anxieties.

I wish every one that is happy with the way South Africa is going all the best - and hope they prosper - but am equally concerned about the vast number of people that are left in a position that offers very little perspective.

JK
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Johan.botha » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:00 am

Sometimes it seems people expect there to be a moment in SA when the 'closed' sign will go up and that will be the end. In a hundred years the country will still be here and there will be people living in it. The question is an individual question about what you are willing to accept as the standards for your environment. So for some their 'Armageddon' time for SA was 10 years ago when things certainly were in better shape, and for others its now.

For those that believe the trend will not cross their line of a minimum standard then happy days. The trend line is well established so we are not talking about a blip in the graph, it may steepen and may flatten a little but SA is on an established on a path. Education, health care, debt, socialism, unemployment, etc will drive the way the society works and affect those in it. All across Africa there are those that chose to stay through the change, for better or for worse. SA will be no different.

When people say they have not been touched by crime nor do they know anyone that has, I find it hard to believe they are telling the truth.

To decide to stay in SA is one thing, to pretend it doesn't have fundamental structural issues that will cause significant change in the next 5-10 years is something else. The SA of today will not be the SA of tomorrow.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:27 am

Richard007 wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:39 pm
Actually, it is that bleak. Even far worse.

If you consider the debt trajectory, it is unsustainable. Govt debt was at 56% in March and will realistically pack on 5-6% this year alone. My view is that if decisive action was taken now(which it hasn't) the debt would not stabilize below 80% of GDP. This excludes state guaranteed debt and the mountain of ever increasing SOE debt. The long term yield curve shows higher cost of debt A debt crunch is now a matter of time, it is bankrupt.

The govt wage bill is unsustainable. A third of the budget goes to the wage bill. There are no signs of this moderating. There are also more people on benefits than there are paying tax. Expectations from those that down contribute have been driven to outrageous levels, free education, free land, free medical cover, free everything.

Marxist policies have created an intensely business unfriendly environment. Mining sector has been treated brutally, agriculture is under attack, manufacturing is generally downsizing. Construction sector is obliterated. This downward momentum would be difficult to arrest in a progressive environment, in an oppressive environment it seems to be seen as positive statistic. It supports the political narrative to lend further support to the failing SOE's. These SOE's are extremely beneficial to the connected few who continue to strip them for personal benefit.

High rates of emigration of economically active and skilled people continues to accelerate. The high increasing unemployment rate is at 28%. Youth unemployment is above 50%.

Then there is the rest. Rampant corruption. Outrageous crime levels. Collapsing infrastructure. Collapsing civil society. Loss of confidence. Continued slide in international ranking of consequence. Etc. There really is no good news.

As for the fallacy that people are better off now:
The tepid growth is outstripped by population growth. People are therefore poorer. GDP per capita in hard currency is well down in the last decade.

If you call what the Joburg Gen offers up to be medical care then you have a low bar for acceptance. Of 696 state facilities 5 are compliant in the Govts own version.

Access to education? The World Economic Forum rates SA last of 148 countries for math's and science. The state education system has been broken.

The country is under the control of crime. The average citizen has no protection from it.

The only people that can look at this mess and see hope or success are those who are benefitting from the system. If you are selling water to SAA for R17 a bottle or paper to the municipality for R1200 then you are styling. Just like the thugs in the last round, you should continue to steal all you can while you can. The end is nigh and South Africa will pay dearly for what it has done.

Look around you, these are the good ol days.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Whirly » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:34 am

Statistics released last week show that 78% of Grade 4 learners in SA can't read with comprehension. The figures are 4% for Britain and 3% for the USA (or maybe the other way around, I can't remember). That is super scary! Think of the future. 8-[

Reading some comments/replies here, it seems it actually started many years ago. :roll: #-o

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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:42 am

paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:46 pm
Swartbok wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:40 pm
paulw wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:37 pm



I don't believe that. The Homecoming Revolution try to get people to return for ages.
They publish figures of people wanting to come back (first generation abroad) but not actually coming back.
Yes lots of people cannot adapt in the colder countries and those who miss families but still stay.

One of the ministers mentioned the other day only one skill person is coming to SA (probably new immigrant and not SA person returning) for every so many (I think was 16) leaving.
I know of very very few people who emigrated who returned to SA and most regret it afterwards and emigrate again or at least want to.
There are some who cannot make it abroad and return. It happens.

So I take any articles based on Homecoming Revolution statements with a pinch of salt.
I believe the statistic (for the perfectionist folk)is 1 in, 8 out. But you point remains very valid.
Thanks for the correction :smt023
Ha ha he did not mention the one in is a Nigerian. :wink:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Fransw » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:54 am

To ad some petrol to the discussion.

Jo'burg prepaid electricity up with 66%.https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-a ... riff-shock
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by heinrich » Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:31 pm

=D> =D> Jan K and Johan Botha's posts. Level headed and no emotion. I've said it many times before too, there is no "apocalypse" or end of days for SA. Just a slow and steady decline (same as other African countries) and as Johan puts it, SA is on that path since long ago. For SA it will probably take longer as our economy and infrastructure is/was more modern that the rest of Africa.

Yet some would like to remind us that "Africa is not for sissies", but they live the life of Riley, apparently untouched by crime and unaffected by rising living costs ($$ investments maybe?) and economic uncertainty that affect the majority of the country. Anyone else also spotting the irony?
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:23 pm

heinrich wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:31 pm
=D> =D> Jan K and Johan Botha's posts. Level headed and no emotion. I've said it many times before too, there is no "apocalypse" or end of days for SA. Just a slow and steady decline (same as other African countries) and as Johan puts it, SA is on that path since long ago. For SA it will probably take longer as our economy and infrastructure is/was more modern that the rest of Africa.

Yet some would like to remind us that "Africa is not for sissies", but they live the life of Riley, apparently untouched by crime and unaffected by rising living costs ($$ investments maybe?) and economic uncertainty that affect the majority of the country. Anyone else also spotting the irony?
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