The Great Recession?

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Jack Welles
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:38 pm

heinrich wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:31 pm
=D> =D> Jan K and Johan Botha's posts. Level headed and no emotion. I've said it many times before too, there is no "apocalypse" or end of days for SA. Just a slow and steady decline (same as other African countries) and as Johan puts it, SA is on that path since long ago. For SA it will probably take longer as our economy and infrastructure is/was more modern that the rest of Africa.

Yet some would like to remind us that "Africa is not for sissies", but they live the life of Riley, apparently untouched by crime and unaffected by rising living costs ($$ investments maybe?) and economic uncertainty that affect the majority of the country. Anyone else also spotting the irony?
No irony because no dollar income. Lots of business opportunities here (mine is in property mostly) for those who are forward thinking and open minded. I understand that that is difficult for some given their background. Just believe a slowly increasing middle class may ultimately be the salvation of the country. And it's happening. It's hard to see from the outside or even from the inside if one is powered by negative prejudicial emotions. Also the real goodwill that there is on the ground with cross-cultural interactions is often missed by those that have traditionally excluded large portions of the population from their immediate circle and now sit on the sidelines bemoaning their fate.

By the way I should mention that some of what you wrote is beyond exaggerated and some just silly, for example, there are countries with much worse education systems, with worse sociological problems etc etc. That they are pretty much all, in the words of a certain great intellectual, sh!thole countries doesn't alter the fact that the statement isn't true.

Also seems to me that people tend to measure SA against first-world countries that are streets ahead in development etc. SA is a third-world country (with pockets of excellence) but not, as one poster stated, about to go down in flames. That is also just silly.

Seems the negative posts always concentrate on the bad (of which there is admittedly much to much) and ignore the good.

I also understand the tendency to feel that posts that supports one's own agenda always seem level-headed and reasonable while those that contradict one's agenda always seem emotional and unreasonable :lol:

As an aside: it's a cliche but the joint really isn't for sissies, it takes some nuts to make the place work.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Whirly » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Whirly wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:34 am
Statistics released last week show that 78% of Grade 4 learners in SA can't read with comprehension. The figures are 4% for Britain and 3% for the USA (or maybe the other way around, I can't remember). That is super scary! Think of the future. 8-[

Reading some comments/replies here, it seems it actually started many years ago. :roll: #-o

Whirly.
We ended up behind Tanzania and Zimbabwe, why? :?

Much too much not going into education obviously.

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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:58 pm

Whirly wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:06 pm
We ended up behind Tanzania and Zimbabwe, why? :? Whirly.
I can answer that! The answer is simple, it's because the powers-that-be aren't going about things the right way despite the money being plowed into education. Unfortunately that affects the majority (mostly black) people out there and hopefully someone somewhere will start to work on the problem.

Fortunately that doesn't affect those who have enough money to send their kids to Bishops! Indeed it doesn't even affect those kids that go to Model C schools which are, effectively, govt funded.

Fortunately a lot of schools fall into this category. Unfortunately it's mostly whites who are benefitting from some excellent Model C schools and we can only hope that our fellow black citizens are given better opportunities over time.

Same old scenario, third world country with pockets of excellence!
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Richard007 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:27 pm

Model C schools are effectively user funded. The number of good ones has decreased, they are under pressure to increase classes, accommodate those that can't pay etc. Considering the number of children in a rapidly expanding population the system is way way behind.

There definitely is a shortage of good teachers in SA. Some fantastic opportunities abroad and many departures even immediately after qualifying. Better pay, better conditions, grime and crime and all the other usual reasons make this very appealing.

Although going to a good school will set you apart in SA, the philosophy of an effective class distinction through education is a disasterous one.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:01 pm

Richard007 wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:27 pm
Model C schools are effectively user funded. The number of good ones has decreased, they are under pressure to increase classes, accommodate those that can't pay etc. Considering the number of children in a rapidly expanding population the system is way way behind.

There definitely is a shortage of good teachers in SA. Some fantastic opportunities abroad and many departures even immediately after qualifying. Better pay, better conditions, grime and crime and all the other usual reasons make this very appealing.

Although going to a good school will set you apart in SA, the philosophy of an effective class distinction through education is a disasterous one.
Yep - lot of work to be done, that's for sure!
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by excolonial » Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:12 pm

Relentless optimism in the face of the reality of South Africa? I find that to be just as toxic as relentless negativity. Reality for many people in Southern Africa is pretty stark, and they either don't have any realistic alternatives, or perhaps are so beaten down they are not able to see the way out.

I have a lived a charmed life, sometimes through wise choices, but mostly as a result of privileges afforded to me by my parents, being born with an above average brain, and blessed with many passports.

I have many friends in Africa who have and continue to fight the good fight, very few of these people are sissies, in fact many are tougher than most on here.
How do you expect them to remain positive when they have had a home invasion and they are unable to protect their wives and children? How do you judge a man who paddles 50kms off the coast of Natal just for fun, in a country he loves, but chose to leave for his family after being carjacked 3 times?
Dare you question the attitude of someone whose best friend had acid forced down his throat until he died in agony?

Surely at some point you develop enough humility to accept that your reality is just that and nothing more, and perhaps have empathy for those, regardless of their background, who are finding it tough to survive in South Africa today.

I am am becoming very pessimistic about Southern Africa, but like many I love the place and am trying to make it work for me to move back there. Perhaps that makes me a fool.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:28 am

Personally, being a patriot, I'm usually just looking for a balanced view of SA to be presented to the world at large. In the face of relentless negativity that calls for relentless pushback as a balancing force. Unfortunately I wasn't blessed with an above average brain so just do the little I can in that regard.

And it's silly to suggest one isn't sympathetic to the plight of one's fellow human beings, whatever their colour, just because one doesn't kick up a fuss all the time. Stiff upper lip, and all of that, don't you know :wink:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:43 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:28 am
Personally, being a patriot, I'm usually just looking for a balanced view of SA to be presented to the world at large. In the face of relentless negativity that calls for relentless pushback as a balancing force. Unfortunately I wasn't blessed with an above average brain so just do the little I can in that regard.

And it's silly to suggest one isn't sympathetic to the plight of one's fellow human beings, whatever their colour, just because one doesn't kick up a fuss all the time. Stiff upper lip, and all of that, don't you know :wink:
Being a patriot is not balanced - it is very subjective.
As I mentioned before - look at what ratings agencies say, since we are talking about the economy etc.
The ratings agencies are as objective as you can hope for, they act in the interests of investors worldwide (and are paid handsomely for it) and have to be as objective and accurate as they can.
If you can't stomach what they say - well believe what you want, but don't cry later.. :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:50 am

Back on topic - and it looks as though the whole thread fuss may have been about nothing anyway because early indications from some analysts are that there was a bounce in the SA economy for the second quarter and, as all the geniuses on Avcom no doubt know, it usually takes two quarters of negative growth in the GDP to have a technical recession. So if those analysts are right then SA isn't in a technical recession after all, never mind the Great Recession (of 2007-2009), which was a specific period in time.

Don't cry later? Cowboys don't cry at all :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:15 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:50 am
Back on topic - and it looks as though the whole thread fuss may have been about nothing anyway because early indications from some analysts are that there was a bounce in the SA economy for the second quarter and, as all the geniuses on Avcom no doubt know, it usually takes two quarters of negative growth in the GDP to have a technical recession. So if those analysts are right then SA isn't in a technical recession after all, never mind the Great Recession (of 2007-2009), which was a specific period in time.

Don't cry later? Cowboys don't cry at all :lol:
The thread is not about technical recessions at all.
It is about the 67 months of retraction in the economy as reported by the SARB, which the OP mistakenly called a "recession".
But I thought we cleared that up pages ago. Now you are still harping on about technical recessions. #-o

Now back on topic, the ratings agencies know why we have this retracement - that's why we are mostly (soon to be completely) rated as junk. So to all the cowboys, now that you know, don't cry. :lol:
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:04 am

Oh dear! Apologies! My less than stellar brain must have missed where the subject line and original question were withdrawn and/or changed. However, I make amends above.

But my other point still stands, viz, relentless negativity paints an inaccurate picture of SA as a whole.
JOHANNESBURG - The World bank forecast South Africa's economic growth will accelerate to 1.3% in 2019 from an estimated 0.9% in 2018, citing the implementation of structural reforms announced last year. In its latest report, the bank projected South Africa's economic growth at 1.7% in 2020.
While this is clearly not enough to balance (that awful word again :lol: ) the population growth, lousy employment figures, terrible crime rate etc etc etc etc (all the usual negative stuff which we get here ad nauseam), it is not the end of the world as we know it :smt045
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:35 am

My other point that the cherry-picking of one, admittedly lousy, statistic doesn't necessarily mean that much on an individual level as is illustrated on the following chart showing of SA's disposable income year on year.
south-africa-disposable-personal-income.jpg
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:47 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:35 am
My other point that the cherry-picking of one, admittedly lousy, statistic doesn't necessarily mean that much on an individual level as is illustrated on the following chart showing of SA's disposable income year on year.south-africa-disposable-personal-income.jpg
:lol: So a growth rate going up to 1.3 and later to 1.7% is fantastic news! Even when nit picking you have trouble identifying good news. :wink: All of that are only predictions anyway. Look at what happened to the 2018 predictions vs. where we ended up.
Anyway your graph makes no sense. What disposable income? R3000000 per household in 2019? Really?
Is that per year or in their lifetime? :twisted: Or maybe it is for the top 1% of earners? :twisted: #-o
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:17 am

Not sure what you're trying to achieve by going off on tangential nitpicking all the time. What is your underlying motive in all of this?

The negativity crowd quote numbers and figures from various official/semi-official sources and when I do the same to show that cherry-picking does not necessarily give a balanced view of life down at the individual level you quickly question their authenticity/validity. Confirmation bias, anyone? A bit surprising from an engineer, actually.

Let's be clear. I'm not for one moment saying that anything factual the negativity crowd have quoted is wrong nor am I questioning the validity of any of that stuff. Of course the doom and gloom predictions are different, being opinions and not facts, but only time will tell in that regard so there's no point debating them.

I've been happy to disclose my motives (are you?). What I am saying is that the negativity crowd tend to give a one-sided view of the situation by their constant digging out and airing of anything that smacks of bad news and they do this relentlessly. As a result it tends to paint an unbalanced picture of SA, more especially with regard to life at the man-in-the-street level.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:42 am

Eddie, I'm just having an honest discussion with you.

You try to portray yourself as balanced, unbiased and so forth. But you are an optimist and a patriot by your own admission as well.
That just does not gel, and you get upset when I unravel your statements with facts and critical questions. Engineers can be bastards with this sometimes. :wink:

That is why I refer to ratings agencies etc. They are as unbiased as you can get on this subject.

I'm not targeting you, just your statements and some of the 'facts' that you present.

As regards my motives, I am just trying to point out many of the misconceptions portrayed here by pointing out some facts, not my subjective opinions.

Anyway, can you tell us what the units of the vertical axis in your bar chart represents. Serious question. Income (in R or C) per (person or household) per (month, year, decade)?
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