The Great Recession?

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cage
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by cage » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:03 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:17 am
What I am saying is that the negativity crowd tend to give a one-sided view of the situation by their constant digging out and airing of anything that smacks of bad news and they do this relentlessly. As a result it tends to paint an unbalanced picture of SA, more especially with regard to life at the man-in-the-street level.
Eddie, I admire your willpower for trying to debate with people that create the illusion of wanting to debate but really only want to be agreed with.
When faced with those that can't distinguish between opinion and fact, think cherry-picking is scientific, or that believe that opinion is fait accompli, then there is no room for such outlandish concepts as big-picture and open-mindedness.
I'm afraid you're wrestling with a pig.
No one knows the future, who knows where things will go. The only thing we know for sure is that the gloom from 20 years ago didn't pan out so opinion and reality don't always meet.
In 20 years we can look back again and see how accurate the opinion was.
At least then some of us would have spent decades not being unhappy or worrying about stuff we can't do anything about and others would probably died of stress and alcoholism.

Avcom is an artificial environment with disproportional representation, so you will get a disproportionate response.
Comes with the territory.
In the real world this attitude tends to work itself out with a bit more balance.
It's best not to keep wading through the mire of unhappiness, narrow perspectives and close-mindedness - there's better ways to spend the day than having to deal with such toxic emotion.
Speaking of which, the bar is open..
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:39 pm

cage wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:03 pm
Speaking of which, the bar is open..
At last a compelling argument as to why I should throw in the towel, bloodied but unbowed ... :lol:
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
Eddie Haynes-Smart
Textbook - "The Lore of Negotiation"
http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:02 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:35 am
My other point that the cherry-picking of one, admittedly lousy, statistic doesn't necessarily mean that much on an individual level as is illustrated on the following chart showing of SA's disposable income year on year.south-africa-disposable-personal-income.jpg
In real terms ????
Politics attracts crooks and lawyers,most of the time its the same person.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by cage » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:49 pm

Marius Schrenk wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:02 pm
In real terms ????
You generate income and SARS disposes of it? :wink:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Johan.botha » Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:41 pm

Yes indeed, its like a conversation with a democrat. No matter how obvious the facts there is a simple refusal to consider. All's fine on the Titanic, its just a little water in the engine room. The band must keep playing. You can keep on whining about the iceberg but that is just 'cherry picking' your facts.

Why anyone would think SA has some kind of immunity to a meltdown is beyond me. There are many good examples of where this road will take the country, I don't believe Venezuela is currently applicable, but there are others. If the results of the inevitable change are not of concern to you then you have nothing to be concerned about.

The concerns of 20 years ago are largely realized. I am not talking about those that stocked up on tinned food, that was excessive. However the decline of infrastructure, corruption, crime etc. were the core of the concern. The next 20 are unlikely to resemble those

I hope I am wrong, it would be nice to see it succeed. Maybe the murders will stop. The rapes will end. The education system will start working. The NHI system will be cheap and the state hospitals will deliver. The economy will explode and the debt will be affordable. EWC will be embraced anfd the land recipients will farm their hearts out and be part of the solution. BEE will create new talent and free tertiary education will create more professors than we know what to do with. Escom, SAA, SABC, Denel will become the indispensable entities we keep getting told they are. I will move back and ride my flying pink elephant to work life will be good.

Otherwise maybe, just maybe, it would be prudent to hedge your bet. Time may be running out.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:09 pm

cage wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:03 pm
No one knows the future, who knows where things will go. The only thing we know for sure is that the gloom from 20 years ago didn't pan out so opinion and reality don't always meet.
In 20 years we can look back again and see how accurate the opinion was.
No one knows the future, correct but history does tend to repeat itself because people will not learn. Read the book "The State of Africa" here is a link to Makro https://www.makro.co.za/books/non-ficti ... gJhIvD_BwE The book is 50 years of well research history 1955 to 2005. From the first country to gain independence to the last in 1994.
The same story is repeated over and over, year after year. After 30 to 35 years there is an uprising / civil disturbance / civil war and perhaps a change of government. We are no different. We have 5 or 10 years before the brown stuff really hits the fan.
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"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

"The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity.
The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery." Winston Churchill.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by cage » Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:10 pm

Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:09 pm
..We have 5 or 10 years before the brown stuff really hits the fan.
in your opinion?
Perhaps. You are reducing history down to a law of averages that over simplifies complex issues.
You can’t get an average without opposite extremes and exceptions, but again an opinion is being stated as a certainty.
The only certainty is that there aren’t any.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm

cage wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:10 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:09 pm
..We have 5 or 10 years before the brown stuff really hits the fan.
in your opinion?
No. Just quoting what has happened in every single country in Africa from 1955 to 2005. Perhaps you think this little bottom end of Africa is different, somehow I think not. Judging by the sterling job being done by those in power, and the fact that the N2 was closed at a little town called Plett-something. I believe the vottahs are becoming restless.
In my theory we have 10 years to wait, in yours we have 20. We talk again in 10 years. OK?
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Marius Schrenk
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

"The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity.
The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery." Winston Churchill.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by cage » Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:30 pm

Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm
cage wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:10 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:09 pm
..We have 5 or 10 years before the brown stuff really hits the fan.
in your opinion?
No. Just quoting what has happened in every single country in Africa from 1955 to 2005. Perhaps you think this little bottom end of Africa is different, somehow I think not. Judging by the sterling job being done by those in power, and the fact that the N2 was closed at a little town called Plett-something. I believe the vottahs are becoming restless.
In my theory we have 10 years to wait, in yours we have 20. We talk again in 10 years. OK?
I picked a random date merely for illustrative purposes.
I am not forecasting anything and was trying to show that anyone that tries , tends to fail.
Go read some of the interviews and quotes of the author you mentioned above, someone that is broadly considered pessimistic (but thorough).
His forecasts for Nigeria in 2015 never materialised.
Point is , if you only read and follow negative views you will have a negative view.
The scoreboard doesn’t read well for forecasters , and they only seem to be people forecasting a bad end.

The bottom line, maybe the world ends in 10 years. Maybe it doesn’t.
I’d rather be the person not spreading unhappiness (and being unhappy) for 35 years, worrying about things we can’t do anything about. I don’t expect many here to understand that concept.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by ACE MAN » Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:51 pm

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Last edited by ACE MAN on Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by C Africa » Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:54 am

Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:19 pm
cage wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:10 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:09 pm
..We have 5 or 10 years before the brown stuff really hits the fan.
in your opinion?
No. Just quoting what has happened in every single country in Africa from 1955 to 2005. Perhaps you think this little bottom end of Africa is different, somehow I think not. Judging by the sterling job being done by those in power, and the fact that the N2 was closed at a little town called Plett-something. I believe the vottahs are becoming restless.
In my theory we have 10 years to wait, in yours we have 20. We talk again in 10 years. OK?
I'm afraid your "EVERY SINGLE COUNTRY" is NOT correct. Just look at Botswana which has actually been independent longer than most other countries in Africa!

C
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:26 am

Johan.botha wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 12:41 pm
Yes indeed, its like a conversation with a democrat. No matter how obvious the facts there is a simple refusal to consider.
Good grief! I thought the argument of "democracy vs authoritarian rule" had been done and dusted many decades ago?
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
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http://www.loreofnegotiation.com
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by paulw » Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:09 am

Just a note: you cannot compare SA with countries like Botswana, Namibia, etc. You have to take into account the culture of the people, history, the background of how "Independence" was obtained, etc.
You have to compare SA with countries with similar backgrounds and culture.
Also that SA and Nigeria have/had much stronger economies than most other countries with similar backgrounds so the 30-35 years might get dragged out a bit due to this.
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Re: The Great Retraction?

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:34 pm

C Africa wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:54 am
I'm afraid your "EVERY SINGLE COUNTRY" is NOT correct. Just look at Botswana which has actually been independent longer than most other countries in Africa!

C
C. FYI. A short history of Africa. The first country to gain independence was Liberia. (Given to returned slaves by the USA 26 July 1847, the name was to symbolise Liberty.) Now please remind me, how has Liberia been the last 170 years or so, compared to the USA. Ghana gained independence 6 March 1957, after that there was a rush with countries in the north being first to gain independence one after the other. The 1960's was a busy time, Bechuanaland became Botswana 30 September 1966. So, no, they have not been independent longer than most other countries in Africa.
If you ever fly to Botswana, ask the locals why their country has been so successful. ALL, beam with pride when they state "our president is half-white.' Perhaps we need that quality here in the RSA?
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

"The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity.
The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery." Winston Churchill.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by F16 » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:55 pm

Botswana fortunately also does not have the ethnic strife like RSA with the Zulus vs Xhosas tensions etc. The Tswanas has always been a reasonable peaceful bunch.

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