We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

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Fransw
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We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Fransw » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:31 am

You have homework for tonight. Study this article and be prepared for a Q&A session tomorrow. I'm serious!..
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opi ... c15efdc25c
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:45 am

I can just hear the doom and gloomers warming up the keyboard for their daily hard-on of neurosis.
:lol:
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Whirly » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:00 am

I would like to see what the graph for Zim looked like.....................................before it all went to pot. :?

Whirly.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:14 am

Fransw wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:31 am
You have homework for tonight. Study this article and be prepared for a Q&A session tomorrow. I'm serious!..
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opi ... c15efdc25c

Pointless …..

The comparison with a decade or more ago and the "rise" of the GDP is measured in ZAR Billion.
That defies devaluation of the Rand in comparison to foreign equity - PPP and every comparison then quickly goes pear-shaped.

Even Zimbabwe is showing a "rising" GDP …… matter of using the right formula.

Bottom line is that South Africa has every opportunity in the world to be successful - but that would require Political decision making and a serious effort into Education and Healthcare. Then stimulating small business and entrepreneurial efforts.

JK
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by excolonial » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:27 am

Haha, should it be Gloom and doomers vs realists, or realists vs relentless optimists.

A few of my observations:

What do the numbers on that graph mean? ZAR units, USD Equivalents, inflation adjusted, or not?
There is no sector information.
There is no government debt equivalency.
Employment Figures
Distribution of GDP - Certainly not linear
Liquidity
Balance of payments
etc blah blah blah

These numbers are almost meaningless without the other litany of measures that they must be viewed against. I believe that there is certainly more cash in the economy now than at any time in history, but that Is almost meaningless.
Whirly wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:00 am
I would like to see what the graph for Zim looked like.....................................before it all went to pot. :?

Whirly.
Ironically, Zimbabwe in my estimation was in very good shape (better than RSA now) just prior to the madness. Very low debt, decreasing unemployment, growing middle class, excellent BOP. All this despite some pretty serious corruption. The forecasts were good. Then it fell off a cliff.

As the Financial services industry loves to say:

The past performance of any investment is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments or income from them may go down as well as up.
The older I get, the more I am convinced that "A Confederacy of Dunces" is non fiction.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by excolonial » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:30 am

HJK 414 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:14 am

Even Zimbabwe is showing a "rising" GDP …… matter of using the right formula.
Haha - yes indeed - the introduction of the new soon to be worthless currency would be sufficient to show an increase in GDP. The economy of Zimbabwe is in freefall, anything else is just fantasy.
The older I get, the more I am convinced that "A Confederacy of Dunces" is non fiction.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by richard C » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:41 pm

I heard recently that we are 9 times more likely to respond to negative news than we are to positive. Something to do with responding to risk in our primitive form.

Is that a sabre-tooth growl ? Nah, it's jus.....
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by excolonial » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:47 pm

Agreed Richard - that is why I do my utmost to never watch/read the news, which is mostly negative/divisive/fearmongering.
Last edited by excolonial on Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by richard C » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:51 pm

excolonial wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Agreed Richard - that is why I do my utmost best to never watch/read the news, which is mostly negative/divisive/fearmongering.
I am getting concerned excolonial - second time we have agreed on something in close succession !!! I'm gonna get sent to 're-education camp' at this rate :lol: :lol:
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Richard007 » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:59 pm

Not much critical thinking required to see through this. Its easy to use a combination of nominal value graphs and selected timeframes that suit a narrative.

If you look at the full picture of the situation in SA and the global context of the times there is not much room for logical debate about the risks.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:11 pm

Richard007 wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:59 pm
Not much critical thinking required to see through this. Its easy to use a combination of nominal value graphs and selected timeframes that suit a narrative.
Indeed. However this is an accepted practice when using information to suit a negative narrative, when it is used for a different narrative then it is an unsuitable method for debate.
Can't have it both ways.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:24 pm

richard C wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:41 pm
I heard recently that we are 9 times more likely to respond to negative news than we are to positive. Something to do with responding to risk in our primitive form.
People that are afraid are easier to manipulate or steer with a populist message, that is why fear, uncertainty and doubt have been the weapon of choice for business and politics alike for a very long time.
If you removed any news article or sentiment that includes the use of "could/might happen" there would be little to see or read.
Everywhere, people are afraid of something or someone which is why we are where we are.

It's not just negativity but the desire to spread anything that is negative which is a real problem, it is quite toxic, amplifies the size of issues and it has grown to be a social cancer - and we're all part of the problem, one way or another.

They should turn off the internet, TV and mobile phones for a couple days a week (and ban anyone over 65 or who is retired from 24-hour news channels!).
Would go a long way to reset some perspectives on the world.

Anyway, we are all fvcked, going to hell in a handbasket. And if I was old enough to remember it - it was better in the 80's.
That about sums it up ;)
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:27 pm

My parents thought it all started to go wrong with rock and roll ...

Two observations:

1) bad news sells - standard newspaper quip: if it bleeds, it leads.

2) confirmation bias makes us think that when we come across something that agrees with our predetermined approach it must be right, when the story/whatever disagrees it must be wrong (this latter is amply proved by the responses so far in this thread, including mine below)

As an aside: (no doubt because of confirmation bias :D ) the article linked to in the OP is singing from my hymn sheet :lol:
Jack Welles (thriller_author pen name)
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Welles/e/B073VJQTTX
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Taildraggerdriver » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:48 pm

cage wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:24 pm
richard C wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:41 pm
I heard recently that we are 9 times more likely to respond to negative news than we are to positive. Something to do with responding to risk in our primitive form.
People that are afraid are easier to manipulate or steer with a populist message, that is why fear, uncertainty and doubt have been the weapon of choice for business and politics alike for a very long time.
If you removed any news article or sentiment that includes the use of "could/might happen" there would be little to see or read.
Everywhere, people are afraid of something or someone which is why we are where we are.

It's not just negativity but the desire to spread anything that is negative which is a real problem, it is quite toxic, amplifies the size of issues and it has grown to be a social cancer - and we're all part of the problem, one way or another.

They should turn off the internet, TV and mobile phones for a couple days a week (and ban anyone over 65 or who is retired from 24-hour news channels!).
Would go a long way to reset some perspectives on the world.

Anyway, we are all fvcked, going to hell in a handbasket. And if I was old enough to remember it - it was better in the 80's.
That about sums it up ;)
React to the present
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That includes financial planning, and planning for your children’s education and futures.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by V5 - LEO » Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:37 pm

....this comming from well known economist, Dawie Roodt. He has balls, and so would all that decide or have to stick around, to make ends meet.

" I CHOOSE THE GREATER FEAR

A letter to my fellow South Africans – all of them
- By Dawie Roodt

We all have our fears and the fear of personal injury must rank right up there for most of us – certainly for me. The greatest fear for me is to be confronted by my two paramount fears at the same time: the fear of personal injury and the fear of injury to my loved ones. My greatest fear is not the possible injury as such, it is the fear of having to choose between these two fears. If it should ever happen, will I fear more for my own life or will I fear more for the lives of my loved ones?

I found out.

Two weeks ago I was working in my study at home. My wife was bathing the two-year-old twins and our eldest daughter was on her way home from university. It was about half past seven on a cold winter’s evening.

My daughter appeared in the door of my study with me hardly noticing and instead of the normal ‘hallo pappa’ she just said ‘pappa’. The strange tone of her voice made me look up. Next to her was a young man - young, her age - subtly showing me the revolver in his hand. There were three. They waited in the garage for her.

My daughter looked at me for some kind of guidance – my beautiful clever little girl – I saw her. And for a moment I also saw the future of this country standing next to her: young, poor, uneducated, unemployable and violent: the flotsam and jetsam of a failed society.

Our ordeal had begun.

Not much happened initially. We were told to be quiet, we were tied up, gagged and blindfolded. We were good hostages. Once we were immobilised they took turns unhurriedly exploring our home, gathering the easy pickings: cell phones, laptops – that kind of thing. Now and again they would ask for ‘’the guns’’, ‘’the money’’ and ‘’the safe’’. Gradually these questions became more frequent and more intense. ‘’We will ask the babies were the money is!’’

It was going to be a long night …

The power went off, startling them. The questioning became more urgent, ‘’where’s the money?’’. The threats became more explicit, the pushing around more forceful. My moment had come, I had to choose my fear.

I convinced the one with the knife that I had money in my car if he would only allow me to show him. Eventually I was led outside. He battled to open the garage door. I heard the babies cry.

I succeeded in getting my hands loose. Standing there, hands loose, but held behind my back. My moment was now, choose your fear this instant and then live with it! The right moment shows itself. I attack him, I hit him, I hold onto him as he tries to escape, I fight for what is mine – I choose the greater fear.

He whimpered as he tried to escape my grip, slashing my arm, cutting through muscles and sinews and scoring a wide wound on my head. He escaped from my clutches, but not from his fear. He ran screaming from a wounded man; I will be his nemesis from now on. But I chose and conquered the greater fear.

I do not share this because I am a hero. A hero would have acted sooner, more successfully, more precisely, more accurately. I share this because I made a choice and I know we must make a choice. For the moment to choose our fear is now, for the sake of our country. I urge you to choose your fear.

Many fears lay ahead for me that night. Some fears I chose, some were chosen for me. I ran for help. My neighbours immediately reacted to my alarm. I ran back, over the wall again, over the bridge again, up the veranda stairs just to collapse at our front door as I saw my family. I had been saved, but my body was running out of blood!

My daughter was a hero, getting me to hospital in her car. Our gardener, also a hero, protected and helped where he could. Our neighbours took in my family. I was driven to hospital lying in my own blood and falling in and out of consciousness. The hospital staff were absolutely amazing. The emergency process worked like a dream. Well-oiled gears, competent hands, kind eyes.

I thought to myself, ‘’why would any government even think of changing this to the way the state provides medical support?’’. ‘’Why don’t they rather change the state’s medical system to what I have experienced?” I know I do not want to be part of the NHI. I now know it will be just another disaster! Just like Eskom, SAA or PetroSA and so many more.

More fears and pain; a catheter, a woman – a black woman as it happens - washing me gently, in all my humble nakedness. But I was saved and so was my family. A few days in ICU, a few hours in theatre, many units of blood and absolutely overwhelming support from all South Africa, then I was back home. Thank you! Thank you! Baie dankie! Nkosi!

Rehabilitation should take up to a year, they say.

Day two at home and the process of getting our lives together again, starts. Cell phones: ‘’You have to come in personally sir, that’s the law, it’s for your own protection’! Hours later, reams of forms of paper and still the government licensed, oligopolistic cell phone institution can’t get us connected. More forms, ‘for your protection sir’. With all of these laws and regulations supposedly designed to protect us, why is it so hard to get our stolen phones back?

I dread the prospect of facing the creaking bureaucracy, of getting new drivers’ licences. I know the wait that will follow, the incompetence, the not-so-subtle hints of bribes, the arrogance of the ‘’civil service’’.

All my friends ask me: ‘’will you leave?’’ At first I didn’t know, but now I do. I will not go! I will choose the greater fear. That night I saw evil, but I also saw so much more that is good in this country: my neighbours, my friends, business partners, the hospital, everybody - everybody! - were just amazing. How can I leave my people, my people that I owe my life to? If we weigh the good against the bad, the good would be many times more than the bad in the country. All we need to do is know that we have more good than evil. It makes it easier when you choose your fear.

As an economist I know what the numbers tell us, but now I can also feel it in my bones, quite literally. I can see how this country is slowly deteriorating, how our institutions are held in contempt with only a few left standing intact, how our state owned enterprises are destroyed by incompetence, with a massive effect on the economy. I can see how corruption, nepotism, cronyism, incompetence and inferior leadership is leading this country into economic stagnation, unemployment, poverty, chaos and the eventual inevitability: the cesspit of a failed state, from where even those cancerous cells that created this environment can’t escape.

That evening I accepted being robbed, beaten, slashed, and even more, just like I have accepted our country being beaten and robbed. But then, that evening, I reached a threshold, some edge, where I refused to be treated like this anymore. I believe my action changed the future of my family for the better. We can also decide to do the same with the future of our country; I urge you!

Please: I am not advocating violence. I don’t even know if attacking an intruder is the right thing to do. But if I was able to choose my greater fear, I do know I can change the future of my family and my country, but we must do it together!

I don’t fear anymore, I’ve seen my fellow countrymen in action. I have seen their competence, their compassion and their care. I have seen and I have experienced their efficiency, their output, their spirit. I know I can trust them.

This is what must happen: forget about the NDP, NDR, IPAP and other abbreviations that are in any event not implemented. Three steps are all that is required.
• Start a process where all civil servants (SOE’s included) are required to reapply for their jobs. And henceforth only employ on merit, not by virtue of contacts, favours, social requirements or nepotism.
• Establish a world class skills development system (education) immediately to support a growing and thriving economy.
• Remove all obstacles to employment. Do not ‘’create jobs’’ but stop preventing willing people from creating their own jobs.

Don’t tell me it’s not possible, it has been done before. However, a very first step would be for all of us to hold our political leaders in office accountable for doing what is required. Political leaders who will choose their own greater fear.

Let us stand up. Let us walk together. Let us mobilise and refuse to do crime, be intimidated, bribe, and support corrupt leaders. Let’s oppose those cancerous cells!

Let us choose the greater fear for we are South Africans! "
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