We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

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Jack Welles
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:53 am

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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Swartbok » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 am

https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/j ... l-20190902

Tell these parents to be cautiously optimistic and that statistically the numbers are insignificant.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:26 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 am
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/j ... l-20190902

Tell these parents to be cautiously optimistic and that statistically the numbers are insignificant.
Without knowing the context of this it would be premature to take it as validation of a bigger, overall problem.
Using it to prove a point is a little vulgar.
I would doubt this was a random crime, it most likely was organised targeting people who's background, associations and affiliations we don't know.
You don't demand that sort of money unless you think you're going to get paid.
Kidnappings are not common in SA, apart from "international businessmen".

I hope they find the buggars responsible and the child comes home safely.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Swartbok » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:49 pm

cage wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:26 pm
Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 am
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/j ... l-20190902

Tell these parents to be cautiously optimistic and that statistically the numbers are insignificant.
Without knowing the context of this it would be premature to take it as validation of a bigger, overall problem.
Using it to prove a point is a little vulgar.
I would doubt this was a random crime, it most likely was organised targeting people who's background, associations and affiliations we don't know.
You don't demand that sort of money unless you think you're going to get paid.
Kidnappings are not common in SA, apart from "international businessmen".

I hope they find the buggars responsible and the child comes home safely.
Never said it was common in SA, but I am saying that such remarks are of no Solace to the family.

Like I said, go tell those parents (not me here on Avcom) that it’s not common, and see if it makes any difference.

It’s not a validation of serious crime problems in SA ? In broad daylight?
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:56 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:49 pm
cage wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:26 pm
Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 am
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/j ... l-20190902
Like I said, go tell those parents (not me here on Avcom) that it’s not common, and see if it makes any difference.
It’s not a validation of serious crime problems in SA ?
With the greatest respect that would apply to every such crime anywhere in the world, no matter how frequently or rarely it happens in any particular jurisdiction. To victims everywhere stats mean nothing.

However, FWIW I, for one (and many others), do agree that there is a serious crime problem in SA. Not sure what the point is?
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:35 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:56 pm
..However, FWIW I, for one (and many others), do agree that there is a serious crime problem in SA. Not sure what the point is?
Yep.
The only thing I have disagreed with (or rather debated about) is the belief that crime is more important or severe when it affects people that you identify with, and some of the interesting theories as to the causes.

Back to this case, if it turns out it is a scam or inside job, how exactly does that translate to the broader crime issues? and what does it have to do with the topic?
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Swartbok » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:14 pm

Cool.
As my posts were not addressed to any specific person,I’m not quite sure why you feel the need to distance yourselves from comments or ideas that you didn’t put forward.

I’m glad we all agree that crime is a big problem and not just the doom and gloom rumblings of a small percentage of like minded individuals with confirmation bias.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:31 pm

Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:14 pm
I’m glad we all agree that crime is a big problem and not just the doom and gloom rumblings of a small percentage of like minded individuals with confirmation bias.
Maybe my question as to "What's the point?" was a bit abrupt and for that I apologise. What I was trying to establish was how you felt that the bad crime situation impinged on the topic question. What I mean is that we're still in the same situation as before, ie, the d&g crowd think that the end is, if not nigh, inevitable and the "hope things come right" crowd still think that it's not yet impossible to turn the situation around.

I can't see how pointing to any one particular event changes that basic equation.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by HJK 414 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:01 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:31 pm

……. What I mean is that we're still in the same situation as before, ie, the d&g crowd think that the end is, if not nigh, inevitable and the "hope things come right" crowd still think that it's not yet impossible to turn the situation around.
I can't see how pointing to any one particular event changes that basic equation.

Eddie,

Could it also be the fact that the d&g crowd are closer to the coalface and that is the initial "opinion" platform?
I would think that the "remainers" are found in a somewhat more affluent segment (hence can "afford" to wait..?)

Example - A farmer sees / hears a lot of news about farm attacks perhaps, knows people wrapping up for Emigration.
In the same society a Lawyer transferring property titles only sees happy people investing in property.
Same society - 2 worlds ….

I am on the fence - but think that if the situation is not addressed in a very short fashion (years as in a "few" - and not a decade) things may lead to a precipice that becomes a point of no return. We have seen enough African states go over that precipice - and never come back from it.

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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by excolonial » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:11 pm

Pretty awful thing to happen. I would say that in this particular type/area of crime, RSA is not atypical when compared with societies of a similar makeup/transient population etc etc. The impunity implied by the brazen nature of the act however is certainly something that is indicative of a low expectation of detection/prosecution.

As always, impunity for me is a very worrying sign, and in RSA I think it starts at the top, although it seems this trend is reversing rapidly if reports are to be believed? How long will it take to trickle down to rank and file policing - too long?
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Swartbok » Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:54 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:01 pm
Jack Welles wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:31 pm

……. What I mean is that we're still in the same situation as before, ie, the d&g crowd think that the end is, if not nigh, inevitable and the "hope things come right" crowd still think that it's not yet impossible to turn the situation around.
I can't see how pointing to any one particular event changes that basic equation.

Eddie,

Could it also be the fact that the d&g crowd are closer to the coalface and that is the initial "opinion" platform?
I would think that the "remainers" are found in a somewhat more affluent segment (hence can "afford" to wait..?)

Example - A farmer sees / hears a lot of news about farm attacks perhaps, knows people wrapping up for Emigration.
In the same society a Lawyer transferring property titles only sees happy people investing in property.
Same society - 2 worlds ….

I am on the fence - but think that if the situation is not addressed in a very short fashion (years as in a "few" - and not a decade) things may lead to a precipice that becomes a point of no return. We have seen enough African states go over that precipice - and never come back from it.

JK
Yes JK agreed.

I’d like to add, that if this family are (or were) possibly remainers, they are now R2mil out of pocket and a lot of physiological damage and anguish richer.
R2mil out of the economy or possible employment creation.

Hope this answers your question Jack as to how I see the negative impact on the economy correlation. I know R2mil is chump change but think of how many people on the fence may have been swayed now.

Surely we’ve established that crime is not good for the economy, and rather the doom and gloom (situation) and not the doom and gloomers (people) should be survived.

Edit: I meant psychological damage. (damn auto correct)
Last edited by Swartbok on Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:31 pm

With respect, Guys, we're still in the same situation. D&g says, "The end.", hopeful says. "Let's see.".

I'm sure some will have switched stance from positive to negative this week. On the other hand, some negatives will have looked at Mboweni's plan and said: "Hey, that might just work. I'll wait and see." and then moved to the cautiously positive side.

Only time will tell as to who is right ... :D
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by cage » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:14 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:31 pm
With respect, Guys, we're still in the same situation. D&g says, "The end.", hopeful says. "Let's see.".
Yah, all crimes aren't equal.
Most Saffers aren't afraid that Oscar will shoot them through the bathroom door, or, if a member of the Rhodes family visits, their wife will end up hanging behind the bathroom door (bathrooms seem to be a problem), or that their Czech "business competitor" will do a drive-by.

Those 4 crims didn't wake up early to borrow a Fortuna, so they could randomly grab a child in the Vanderbijlpark area and then call the parents to cough up a ton of money.

Of all the problems we try protect ourselves from, this just doesn't seem one of them.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:53 am

Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:54 pm
Surely we’ve established that crime is not good for the economy, and rather the doom and gloom (situation) and not the doom and gloomers (people) should be survived.
I'm pretty sure most will agree that crime is not good for the economy. But I'm not sure about the rest of that sentence. I'm a great believer in the "man-at-the-top" theory, eg, a Whitey Basson set the tone for the success of Checkers, Boris Johnson sets the tone from Chequers (couldn't resist :D ), Zuma set the tone for the nine wasted years and Cyril is setting a better tone now.

In other words, fixing a negative politico-economic situation isn't just about making structural changes (eg, privatising SOE's) it's also about creating a belief in people generally that things can come right. The private sector is sitting on a ton of money that could have a significant economic impact if deployed immediately but it isn't because of the d&g crowd.

Ditto with a positive vibe in SA overseas money would flood in to take advantage of new opportunities. A major contributor to a positive vibe would be a change in the attitude of the people.
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Re: We survived Zuma, but can we survive the prophets of doom?

Unread post by Roger » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:01 am

Swartbok wrote:
Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:37 am
https://m.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/j ... l-20190902

Tell these parents to be cautiously optimistic and that statistically the numbers are insignificant.
Good news, the little girl is safely back home physically unharmed.
Don’t take things for granted… Tomorrow is not promised.

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