Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Ray W » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:03 am

Now Trump is saying Iran is ultimately responsible for this attack
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Darren » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:48 am

Iran is ultimately responsible, in that they're the ones who supply the Houthi rebels and the general consensus is that the drones the Houthis are using are manufactured in Iran specifically for them.

That doesn't mean this is worth going to war with Iran over, of course. The Houthis have attacked Saudi airports and other facilities with drones like this before without it escalating. Saudi Arabia wants to draw the US deeper into this, because it's doing exceptionally poorly at defeating the Houthis and is proving inept at countering Iranian operations in the broader Middle East. The US is going to use it to amplify its own sabre-rattling and 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran, but if there wasn't immediate retaliation I don't think we're going to see a real military response. That being said, both the Houthis and the Iranians are clearly amping up their own game plan, perhaps sensing a weakness in the US administration with Bolton gone and an opportunity to see where the limits are.

I completely agree with cage's post, there's no need to believe in conspiracy theories here. After all, Iran is not that coy about its support for the Houthis, it's not like they're sitting there claiming to be bewildered and not involved at all.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Jack Welles » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:50 am

cage wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:49 am
To end my ramble, there is no one place, just strive to be diverse and apply your mind.
I try and go at it from a completely different starting point because there is so much stuff coming at us day in and day out that there really isn't time to truly get to grips with each element to work out what's right and what's wrong.

What I did is establish some basic principles which I spent time on and which I believe to be most likely correct. Then I apply the appropriate principle to news as it comes out and decide in that fashion whether that particular piece of news makes sense or not. Having taken the time to establish the basic principles ultimately saves a lot of time not having to "fact check" individual news items.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by excolonial » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:52 am

The whole thing does seem a little crazy given the current situation. Surely the Iranians are not crazy enough to provoke a superpower with an itchy trigger finger?

They do not act rationally, that much is clear, but usually keep one step away from direct provocation. Perhaps their proxies decided to let fly regardless of the consequences.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by HJK 414 » Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:57 am

excolonial wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:52 am
The whole thing does seem a little crazy given the current situation. Surely the Iranians are not crazy enough to provoke a superpower with an itchy trigger finger?

They do not act rationally, that much is clear, but usually keep one step away from direct provocation. Perhaps their proxies decided to let fly regardless of the consequences.


Perhaps the problem lies at the other side ?
Wars often help win elections - pride - national unity etc ……..

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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Airwayfreak » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:13 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:57 am
Wars often help win elections - pride - national unity etc ……..

JK
Depends what legacy the POTUS wants to leave behind.

The Bush clan wanted a legacy of war
Obama wanted a legacy of diplomacy
Trump wants a legacy of idiocy.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Darren » Mon Sep 16, 2019 12:15 pm

excolonial wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:52 am
The whole thing does seem a little crazy given the current situation. Surely the Iranians are not crazy enough to provoke a superpower with an itchy trigger finger?

They do not act rationally, that much is clear, but usually keep one step away from direct provocation. Perhaps their proxies decided to let fly regardless of the consequences.
Part of the problem is that the Iranians don't act with one mind or speak with one voice. The IRGC is effectively self-governing, and you do sometimes have occasions where one wing of the Iranian government or political system will approve an action just to weaken or embarrass another wing.

But given that the US is currently without a National Security Advisor or a properly appointed Secretary of Defence, it seems a good time to be pushing a little bit. This is admittedly very provocative, but then the Iranians haven't always shown the best understanding of strategic restraint.
HJK 414 wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:57 am

Perhaps the problem lies at the other side ?
Wars often help win elections - pride - national unity etc ……..

JK
Always worth asking the question, but it just doesn't add up. In the present political situation in the US a war with Iran will be bad for the Republicans in the upcoming elections. The attack on Saudi oil is not the kind of thing to bring Americans together in favour of military action and none of the scandals and debates currently dominating the political news cycle are likely to go away even if they are drowned out for a short amount of time.

My reading of Trump's response to this is that despite the bravado and sabre-rattling he really does not want to go to war over it. All of his statements have included wriggle-room about taking action.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm

cage wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:58 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 4:56 pm
Hey Cage, in your books who was responsible for 9 / 11? The Saudis?
I thought that it was a covert American op on their own soil?
I think that was the last sort of conspiracy sites like that were peddling.

I took my tinfoil hat off a long time ago.
The simplest answer is usually the one.
The simplest answer is usually to satisfy the simpletons, somehow I figure you are not one of them. So don your tin hat once more, make sure it is a loose fit and open your mind. A group named Architects and Engineers for the truth of 9/11 have won the right to convene a Grand Jury in the USA. (Google Grand Jury.) This means they have produced documented proof that the mainstream media BS is just that. The jury will look at the evidence produced, no media, no coercion, just decide based on evidence supplied, true or not.
https://www.ae911truth.org/grandjury

I have a challenge for you, light a bonfire in your backyard, use as much Jet A1 as you want to, plus office furniture, desks, carpets and even a few bags of your favourite braaihout. Then lay an I beam on the fire. See if you can melt it?
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Darren » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:49 pm

Orthin Opter wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm
The simplest answer is usually to satisfy the simpletons, somehow I figure you are not one of them. So don your tin hat once more, make sure it is a loose fit and open your mind. A group named Architects and Engineers for the truth of 9/11 have won the right to convene a Grand Jury in the USA. (Google Grand Jury.) This means they have produced documented proof that the mainstream media BS is just that. The jury will look at the evidence produced, no media, no coercion, just decide based on evidence supplied, true or not.
https://www.ae911truth.org/grandjury

I have a challenge for you, light a bonfire in your backyard, use as much Jet A1 as you want to, plus office furniture, desks, carpets and even a few bags of your favourite braaihout. Then lay an I beam on the fire. See if you can melt it?
You have to be joking.

First of all, AE911 have not won the right to convene a grand jury, they have only petitioned a US Attorney under 18 U.S.C. § 3332 and have received a response that he'll comply with that statute and look into it. Like most such petitions the US Attorney will find that it is baseless and take it no further.

Second, we have actual materials scientists on AvCom who can tell you that steel beams lose most of their structural integrity at temperatures well within those seen in the towers.

In fact I don't even know why I'm addressing this. The 9/11 conspiracy theory has been disproved so many times.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Christo » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:54 pm

Not too interested in the politics. Technically though how big are theses things and what ordnance do they carry. Range?
Due to the price increase in ammunition, do not expect a warning shot.

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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:58 pm

Darren wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:49 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm
The simplest answer is usually to satisfy the simpletons, somehow I figure you are not one of them. So don your tin hat once more, make sure it is a loose fit and open your mind. A group named Architects and Engineers for the truth of 9/11 have won the right to convene a Grand Jury in the USA. (Google Grand Jury.) This means they have produced documented proof that the mainstream media BS is just that. The jury will look at the evidence produced, no media, no coercion, just decide based on evidence supplied, true or not.
https://www.ae911truth.org/grandjury

I have a challenge for you, light a bonfire in your backyard, use as much Jet A1 as you want to, plus office furniture, desks, carpets and even a few bags of your favourite braaihout. Then lay an I beam on the fire. See if you can melt it?
You have to be joking.

First of all, AE911 have not won the right to convene a grand jury, they have only petitioned a US Attorney under 18 U.S.C. § 3332 and have received a response that he'll comply with that statute and look into it. Like most such petitions the US Attorney will find that it is baseless and take it no further.

Second, we have actual materials scientists on AvCom who can tell you that steel beams lose most of their structural integrity at temperatures well within those seen in the towers.

In fact I don't even know why I'm addressing this. The 9/11 conspiracy theory has been disproved so many times.
OK Darren. Why did a skyscraper burn for three weeks in Italy without collapsing? That building is still in use today. I am confused.
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

"The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity.
The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery." Winston Churchill.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Darren » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:16 pm

Christo wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:54 pm
Not too interested in the politics. Technically though how big are theses things and what ordnance do they carry. Range?
The Qasef-1 (Iranian Ababil-2) has a range of around 150 kilometres and a payload of about 40-45 kg. The Zelzal series of unguided artillery rocket has around the same range but carries about 600 kg of explosives. I don't have the stats on the Sammad. They're also known to use Iranian Quds missiles.

The Houthis consistently claim ranges greater than 1 200km for attacks, but that has never been independently verified. This is also not the first time they've hit Saudi oil facilities: They've done it on around two or three other occasions over the past year. This is just the first time they were moderately successful.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by cage » Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm

Orthin Opter wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm
...The simplest answer is usually to satisfy the simpletons, somehow I figure you are not one of them. So don your tin hat once more, make sure it is a loose fit and open your mind. A group named Architects and Engineers for the truth of 9/11 have won the right to convene a Grand Jury in the USA. (Google Grand Jury.) This means they have produced documented proof that the mainstream media BS is just that. The jury will look at the evidence produced, no media, no coercion, just decide based on evidence supplied, true or not....
OK, I had a read. It does smack a lot of pseudoscience but I read through it anyway.
Most theories are based loosely on something plausible but fall short under scrutiny.
Not being a materials scientist I would have to read more.
I did start looking into who these people are and what their respective associations think and related commentary.
I would seem none of the associations support what they are suggesting.

I did you the courtesy of reading it, albeit with a loosely fitting tin foil cap.
Perhaps you will do the same and read this short article, no hat required ;)

https://skepticalinquirer.org/newslette ... d_survived
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by rainier » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:19 am

Darren wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:49 pm

Second, we have actual materials scientists on AvCom who can tell you that steel beams lose most of their structural integrity at temperatures well within those seen in the towers.
Absolutely correct. A ton of detailed information just a Google away. Every structural engineer designing buildings will talk your head off about this if you give him/her half a chance...

Really not sure why examples as quoted even see the light of day in this context.
Who said the sky is the limit ? I think not.
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Re: Saudi oil facilities bombed by drones

Unread post by Orthin Opter » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:25 am

cage wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:18 pm
Orthin Opter wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 6:36 pm
...The simplest answer is usually to satisfy the simpletons, somehow I figure you are not one of them. So don your tin hat once more, make sure it is a loose fit and open your mind. A group named Architects and Engineers for the truth of 9/11 have won the right to convene a Grand Jury in the USA. (Google Grand Jury.) This means they have produced documented proof that the mainstream media BS is just that. The jury will look at the evidence produced, no media, no coercion, just decide based on evidence supplied, true or not....
OK, I had a read. It does smack a lot of pseudoscience but I read through it anyway.
Most theories are based loosely on something plausible but fall short under scrutiny.
Not being a materials scientist I would have to read more.
I did start looking into who these people are and what their respective associations think and related commentary.
I would seem none of the associations support what they are suggesting.

I did you the courtesy of reading it, albeit with a loosely fitting tin foil cap.
Perhaps you will do the same and read this short article, no hat required ;)

https://skepticalinquirer.org/newslette ... d_survived
OK I read it, it too smacks of pseudoscience so my tinfoil hat is strapped down :wink: Back to the subject......
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." George Bernard Shaw.

"The main vice of capitalism is the uneven distribution of prosperity.
The main vice of socialism is the even distribution of misery." Winston Churchill.

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