Ukraine / Russia Situation

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Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Bearcat » Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:02 pm

This is not looking good
Putin is normally a smart guy but he seems to have lost the plot on this one..
Even if Russia overruns Ukraine in a few days ...then what ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ter-Z.html
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Theuns v V » Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:29 pm

rasPUTIN has already achieved his aim without having to fore a shot. He has demonstrated to the west that russia is a world power that can start a big war at any moment they want. This was the basic idea he had all allong. He knows taking ukraine will be easy however keeping it will be near impossible in the long run.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by alpha-mike-tango » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:20 pm

Been watching this unfold for over a month now.
Still no idea what his real intentions are ... is he playing a brilliant chess game or has his bluff been called? Both Johnson and Biden have hardly done a sterling job of dealing with the situation.
No doubt both have their own political interests and agendas in mind rather than those of Europe or Ukraine ...

pprune has two threads running on the subject which I read every day
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by MadMacs » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:54 pm

You've all got it wrong, it is the US that is causing havoc. Now that they don't have a war to fight they need to make one, else the MIC, military industrial complex, will collapse. NATO has been getting closer to Russia for a long time and now Putin has had enough. The violent overthrow of the legitimate government in Ukraine by the US in 2014, the Maidan or Ukrainian Spring, was the tipping point. The genocide of Russian speaking cirizens in Donetsk and Luhansk People's republics are the major concern. Another main aspect is the Russian gas supply to Europe which the US wants to end so that they can supply the EU. It's really all about money.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by tf104g » Sun Feb 20, 2022 6:27 pm

MadMacs wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:54 pm
You've all got it wrong, it is the US that is causing havoc. Now that they don't have a war to fight they need to make one, else the MIC, military industrial complex, will collapse. NATO has been getting closer to Russia for a long time and now Putin has had enough. The violent overthrow of the legitimate government in Ukraine by the US in 2014, the Maidan or Ukrainian Spring, was the tipping point. The genocide of Russian speaking cirizens in Donetsk and Luhansk People's republics are the major concern. Another main aspect is the Russian gas supply to Europe which the US wants to end so that they can supply the EU. It's really all about money.
LOL – I bet you think either the Ukrainians or Americans shot down MH17.

I have a very close friend who lives in Kiev, she was part of the Orange Revolution in late 2004 - early 2005 and then again the Euromaidan unrest in late 2013 – early 2014, which was primarily about the refusal of Victor Yanukovych to sign the agreement with the European Union. Both protests had a common denominator, Victor Yanukovych, who was basically a Russian (Putin) stooge, the protests were also connected to government corruption and the abuse of power by the Yanukovych government, the average Ukrainian had had enough.

After speaking to my friend this past week she is concerned, but like many Ukrainian’s they would like to determine who governs them and which countries they have international relationships with, they don’t need or want Russia to give them their blessing, after all Ukraine is an independent country.

The majority of Ukrainians are just that ethnic Ukrainians - ethnic Russians make up approximately 20% of the population of Ukraine. Many of these live in the east (Donetsk and Luhansk) and also Crimea however even in these areas there are many Ukrainians who are just that, Ukrainian first and foremost.

So how about Putin stops trying to bully a neighboring country, like he did with Georgia (South Ossetia) in 2008 and try and live in peace with members of the former Soviet Union. The days of the Soviet Union are over and Putin just has to be content to be president for life in Russia.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by RiNCEw1ND » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:14 am

MadMacs wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:54 pm
You've all got it wrong, it is the US that is causing havoc. Now that they don't have a war to fight they need to make one, else the MIC, military industrial complex, will collapse. NATO has been getting closer to Russia for a long time and now Putin has had enough. The violent overthrow of the legitimate government in Ukraine by the US in 2014, the Maidan or Ukrainian Spring, was the tipping point. The genocide of Russian speaking cirizens in Donetsk and Luhansk People's republics are the major concern. Another main aspect is the Russian gas supply to Europe which the US wants to end so that they can supply the EU. It's really all about money.
Wow :lol: :lol:

Your post history shows you very pro Putin - I in general am too.

He has totally lost the plot here.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Jean Crous » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:59 am

Yup,...he`s puttin his credibility on the line :wink:
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by MadMacs » Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:15 am

RiNCEw1ND wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:14 am
MadMacs wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:54 pm
You've all got it wrong, it is the US that is causing havoc. Now that they don't have a war to fight they need to make one, else the MIC, military industrial complex, will collapse. NATO has been getting closer to Russia for a long time and now Putin has had enough. The violent overthrow of the legitimate government in Ukraine by the US in 2014, the Maidan or Ukrainian Spring, was the tipping point. The genocide of Russian speaking cirizens in Donetsk and Luhansk People's republics are the major concern. Another main aspect is the Russian gas supply to Europe which the US wants to end so that they can supply the EU. It's really all about money.
Wow :lol: :lol:

Your post history shows you very pro Putin - I in general am too.

He has totally lost the plot here.
Yip, I really admire the man. Sadly the "West's" propaganda machine is in full swing, and many are brainwashed just as we were during the Border War.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:31 am

What I find very interesting is the USA saying they will not be sending any troops to the Ukraine, but will support the Ukraine using very harsh economic sanctions, as well as other NATO countries commiting to sending military equipment, but no troops.

Considering how quickly the USA invaded Irak, in the first Gulf war with Irak a far weaker country military speaking.
Now in the Ukraine situation, the adversary would be Russia, a much stronger country military speaking, the USA is saying no to troops.

My question is why were very harsh sanctions not considered in the Irak situation?

If I were Putin, I'm not sure I would want NATO on my doorstep.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by tf104g » Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:40 am

With regard to Ukraine wanting to move closer to the EU and possibly join NATO, can you blame them, with the Russian Bear on their doorstep trying its best to bring them back under Russia’s control. The former Warsaw Pact countries (besides Russia) - Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania all have either joined the EU and / or NATO. The former Soviet Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have joined both the EU and NATO and some of the now independent countries that made up the former Yugoslavia have joined both the EU and NATO.

I wonder why that is, probably these counties do not want to go back to be under the influence and control, either directly or indirectly of Russia but specifically Putin’s Russia. Can’t say I blame them.

Even after joining NATO none of the former Warsaw Pact countries are a threat to Russia, it is more for their own perceived security and joining the EU gives them access to preferred trading and economic partners. None of this is a threat to Russia.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:17 pm

tf104g wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:40 am


Even after joining NATO none of the former Warsaw Pact countries are a threat to Russia, it is more for their own perceived security and joining the EU gives them access to preferred trading and economic partners. None of this is a threat to Russia.
It is more a question of geography.
With NATO in Ukrain, NATO will be able to block the Russian navy from accessing the warm Mediterranean.
Sevastopol is Russia's only major warm water port that could be blocked by NATO if needed.
The Ukrain has far more strategic advantages to Russia than any of the other former soviet countries
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by tf104g » Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:46 pm

Trevorn wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:17 pm
tf104g wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:40 am


Even after joining NATO none of the former Warsaw Pact countries are a threat to Russia, it is more for their own perceived security and joining the EU gives them access to preferred trading and economic partners. None of this is a threat to Russia.
It is more a question of geography.
With NATO in Ukrain, NATO will be able to block the Russian navy from accessing the warm Mediterranean.
Sevastopol is Russia's only major warm water port that could be blocked by NATO if needed.
The Ukrain has far more strategic advantages to Russia than any of the other former soviet countries
Interesting point and yes Sevastopol is a strategically important port in the Black Sea. However lets forget that Sevastopol is still part of Ukraine and not Russia, at least until Russia annexed it in 2014 and look at the other challenges of getting the Russian Navy from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean.

Those same Russian navy ships would have to transit the Bosporus Strait which cuts through Turkey - a NATO member - the Bosporus Strait is approx 30 kms long and approx 1 km wide at its widest point. From the Bosporus Strait the Russian fleet would sail into Sea of Marmara and then through the Dardanelles Strait, another narrow body of water, before it got into the Mediterranean. All of this is surrounded by Turkey – a NATO member – so in a time of conflict if the US wanted to restrict the Russian fleet getting from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean I would say irrespective if the fleet was based in Sevastopol or not the easiest way to stop them, with or without Turkey’s help would either be in the Bosporus or Dardanelles Straits.

The Russian Navy already has a warm water Black Sea port at Novorossiysk so why don’t they just use that one, why feel the need to annex Crimea which is still technically part of Ukraine. Surely countries like Russia cannot just decide to annex parts of other smaller countries just because they want to, those days are over or at least they should be.

The chances of Ukraine joining NATO as a full member are remote to say the least. As far as I am aware NATO only grants membership by unanimous agreement from all existing members and I don’t think Germany or France would allow Ukraine to join NATO, especially under the current conditions.

My honest opinion this whole NATO – Ukraine thing is just propaganda that Putin is using for his own people, to try and justify his desire to retake control of Ukraine. I think for Putin it is personal and he is trying to somehow restore the old Soviet Empire.

Vladimir Putin did invade Ukraine in 2014, and parts of Georgia (South Ossetia) in 2008. Moreover, it is Russia that has around 150,000 troops stationed on its border with eastern Ukraine.

It is not surprising that Ukraine is seeking to forge closer relations with the West due to long-standing fears of Russian aggression. Other nations in the region have pursued a similar path before. Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states all joined NATO in the 1990s and early 2000s not because they were forced to, but because of around half a century of subjugation at the hands of Russia was a significant factor in the internal politics of those countries.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:56 pm

tf104g wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:46 pm
Trevorn wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:17 pm
tf104g wrote:
Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:40 am


Even after joining NATO none of the former Warsaw Pact countries are a threat to Russia, it is more for their own perceived security and joining the EU gives them access to preferred trading and economic partners. None of this is a threat to Russia.
It is more a question of geography.
With NATO in Ukrain, NATO will be able to block the Russian navy from accessing the warm Mediterranean.
Sevastopol is Russia's only major warm water port that could be blocked by NATO if needed.
The Ukrain has far more strategic advantages to Russia than any of the other former soviet countries
Interesting point and yes Sevastopol is a strategically important port in the Black Sea. However lets forget that Sevastopol is still part of Ukraine and not Russia, at least until Russia annexed it in 2014 and look at the other challenges of getting the Russian Navy from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean.

Those same Russian navy ships would have to transit the Bosporus Strait which cuts through Turkey - a NATO member - the Bosporus Strait is approx 30 kms long and approx 1 km wide at its widest point. From the Bosporus Strait the Russian fleet would sail into Sea of Marmara and then through the Dardanelles Strait, another narrow body of water, before it got into the Mediterranean. All of this is surrounded by Turkey – a NATO member – so in a time of conflict if the US wanted to restrict the Russian fleet getting from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean I would say irrespective if the fleet was based in Sevastopol or not the easiest way to stop them, with or without Turkey’s help would either be in the Bosporus or Dardanelles Straits.

The Russian Navy already has a warm water Black Sea port at Novorossiysk so why don’t they just use that one, why feel the need to annex Crimea which is still technically part of Ukraine. Surely countries like Russia cannot just decide to annex parts of other smaller countries just because they want to, those days are over or at least they should be.

The chances of Ukraine joining NATO as a full member are remote to say the least. As far as I am aware NATO only grants membership by unanimous agreement from all existing members and I don’t think Germany or France would allow Ukraine to join NATO, especially under the current conditions.

My honest opinion this whole NATO – Ukraine thing is just propaganda that Putin is using for his own people, to try and justify his desire to retake control of Ukraine. I think for Putin it is personal and he is trying to somehow restore the old Soviet Empire.

Vladimir Putin did invade Ukraine in 2014, and parts of Georgia (South Ossetia) in 2008. Moreover, it is Russia that has around 150,000 troops stationed on its border with eastern Ukraine.

It is not surprising that Ukraine is seeking to forge closer relations with the West due to long-standing fears of Russian aggression. Other nations in the region have pursued a similar path before. Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states all joined NATO in the 1990s and early 2000s not because they were forced to, but because of around half a century of subjugation at the hands of Russia was a significant factor in the internal politics of those countries.
Okay, now factor in Turkey's economic collapse.
I don't know the full impact of that. Many moving parts to it all....
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by kudu177 » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:05 pm

I am with tf104g here.

Ukraine's situation is both complex and simple at the same time.

Now, while parachute journalism is the worst way to understand a country, a brief visit to Kiev in 2010 revealed a couple of things.

1. There is strong pro-Russian support in the east of Ukraine where many people prefer to speak Russian.
2. But the east is not the whole of Ukraine and Putin conveniently "forgets" that.
3. Most of the population has no desire to be a Russian vassal state ever again.

The steppes have long memories. The holomodor, Stalin's genocide by starvation, is fresh trauma here. So is the final solution, Babi Yar ...

But there is also a bigger back story. Putin, heroic bareback horseman that he is, wants to restore's Russia's faith in itself as a world power. I think it's important to see the invasion Crimea and the ongoing nastiness in South Ossetia in this light and not just as a (hasty) land grab to ensure control of a large part of the Black Sea.

Corruption-wise, Russia looks and sounds like a failed state. The world is laughing at it.

China, meanwhile, is booming. And expanding westwards. Hard for the Russians to swallow. Hence, a treaty which will quite probably be more honoured in the breach than observed.

Also, Ukraine's grain basket is epically huge. And there's lots of uranium.

Into this mix comes a weakened and morally comprised US, another superpower currently applying for the position of world clown. Who wouldn't take the opportunity to claw back some glory days?

This all said, invading Crimea and snuffing out pockets of pro-Tbilisi holdouts in South Ossetia is one thing. Invading a big, well-equipped, democratically aware country like Ukraine is altogether another,
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by rainier » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:24 pm

I don't think the Ukraine situation can be compared to Irak or Afghanistan - Remember the Russians tried to sort out Afghanistan first - and where not successful either (not helped by the U.S. supporting the opposing side as they thought at the time was a smart idea - it wasn't).

I do see similarities between Hitler going into Poland with what could possibly happen here. Hitler certainly had no plans for a World War - but Poland acted as a trigger, first bringing in Britain and things went pear shaped from there...
In other words - the big danger is this spiraling out of control.

The Western powers have been very vocal about not getting involved militarily except for some token weapons donations (and we must not forget Germany's generous offer of helmets !) These are of course completely inadequate against the might of Russia.
So Putin knows that at best there will be words and at worst sanctions for a while - that will not stop him, that's just a slap on the wrist.

The West is not interested in a direct confrontation with a nuclear armed nation and has obviously pretty much left Ukraine to its fate.

Of course Putin can go in and with what he has assembled it will take a few days at the worst before Ukraine falls. He does not need to stay for long - long enough to install a friendly government and then get out (possibly leaving a small force behind just for assistance should there be anybody with a different opinion that needs a bit of convincing.

I'm pretty sure Ukraine is really regretting giving up their nuclear deterrent. The only other deterrent possible - that of Nato protection, is not going to happen.

So - Ukraine is likely a done and dusted - the west will do nothing (much) - hoping that this will be enough to feed the Russian bear for a while.

Putin is a chess player - always has been. Ruthless and calculating. I think he knows exactly what he is doing and why. Nato is not a threat in any shape or form to him - but he certainly does not like loosing influence over the former east block - he has stated as much in detail - can he take it back by force ? Time will tell.

In the meantime I have stocked up on popcorn. Downside of all of this - if it happens (and yes it's been happening anyway, little by little) - it's going to cost a lot of innocent lives. Hope Putin does mind that...
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