Ukraine / Russia Situation

[heisan]

It will be interesting to see what the Putin apologists say about this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bu ... 022-05-15/

White, brightly burning munitions were shown cascading down on the Azovstal steel works in the Ukrainian port of Mariupol in what a British military expert said looked like either an attack with phosphorus or incendiary weapons.

A single video of what looks like very similar air burst incendiaries, with no actual evidence of who fired it, where it was targeted, what the incendiary was, or even the resulting fires is absolute proof that the Ukrainians are using white phosphorous weapons against civilians according to them.

I wonder what this video shows according to them?

Your post is very confusing, are you answering your own question? :

I was comparing this video to those previously posted on this thread as 'proof' that the Ukrainians have been using white phosphorous.

A single video of what looks like very similar air burst incendiaries, with no actual evidence of who fired it, where it was targeted, what the incendiary was, or even the resulting fires is absolute proof that the Ukrainians are using white phosphorous weapons against civilians according to them.

The fact that the Azov battallion are deep underground, means that they won't be affected at all, so it must be targeting the Russian troops.

This is a good demonstration of how people's own biases determine how they view the world, and how easy it is to mislead them.

This was definitely a Russian rocket salvo. Firstly, it comes from the sea, where Russia has maintained a tight blockade since the start of the 'special military operation', and secondly, there are various articles around where the Russians say it was them.

But, this was not white phosphorous. These were thermite (9M22S) warheads. You can tell by the lack of smoke that these are not white phosphorous (just as you could with the videos purportedly showing white phosphorous being used by the Ukrainians).

But, because people have been led to believe that only the Ukrainians would use incendiaries, they immediately think it was the Ukrainians. And because they have repeatedly been told that the Ukrainians use white phosphorous, they will believe that it is white phosphorous. No evidence required - just prior bias.

[Burner]

The Azov Battalion in the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol have surrendered.

https://www.rt.com/russia/555591-azovst ... r-ukraine/

I wonder if your suggestion that they fired air burst icendiaries onto themselves, was the tipping point?

Reports seem to suggest that this was a red cross brokered deal between both sides, where the Ukranians agreed to hand over the plant, in exchange for releasing of Russian POWs, and safe passage of the Ukranian Azov defenders back to Ukraine held territory.

I see Putin has had to soften his stance on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying he has no quarrel with them and they are free to do as they please. I guess he knew he would lose face when they inevitably join NATO.

I would hazard a guess that it is the latest munitions given to Ukraine and it was an attempt to kill the surrounding Russian forces. There is drone footage released by the Ukies of a night flight showing Russian forces moving from building to building (I would post a link but most of you don't like my sources). Again news was released showing pictures of a captured US Admiral as well as a high ranking British officer.

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

[MadMacs]

It will be interesting to see what the Putin apologists say about this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/bu ... 022-05-15/



A single video of what looks like very similar air burst incendiaries, with no actual evidence of who fired it, where it was targeted, what the incendiary was, or even the resulting fires is absolute proof that the Ukrainians are using white phosphorous weapons against civilians according to them.

I wonder what this video shows according to them?

Your post is very confusing, are you answering your own question? :

I was comparing this video to those previously posted on this thread as 'proof' that the Ukrainians have been using white phosphorous.

A single video of what looks like very similar air burst incendiaries, with no actual evidence of who fired it, where it was targeted, what the incendiary was, or even the resulting fires is absolute proof that the Ukrainians are using white phosphorous weapons against civilians according to them.

The fact that the Azov battallion are deep underground, means that they won't be affected at all, so it must be targeting the Russian troops.

This is a good demonstration of how people's own biases determine how they view the world, and how easy it is to mislead them.

This was definitely a Russian rocket salvo. Firstly, it comes from the sea, where Russia has maintained a tight blockade since the start of the 'special military operation', and secondly, there are various articles around where the Russians say it was them.

But, this was not white phosphorous. These were thermite (9M22S) warheads. You can tell by the lack of smoke that these are not white phosphorous (just as you could with the videos purportedly showing white phosphorous being used by the Ukrainians).

But, because people have been led to believe that only the Ukrainians would use incendiaries, they immediately think it was the Ukrainians. And because they have repeatedly been told that the Ukrainians use white phosphorous, they will believe that it is white phosphorous. No evidence required - just prior bias.

Honestly what would Russia gain by dropping that on their own positions, you obviously have no idea what is going on there.

[MadMacs]

I wonder if your suggestion that they fired air burst icendiaries onto themselves, was the tipping point?

Reports seem to suggest that this was a red cross brokered deal between both sides, where the Ukranians agreed to hand over the plant, in exchange for releasing of Russian POWs, and safe passage of the Ukranian Azov defenders back to Ukraine held territory.

I see Putin has had to soften his stance on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying he has no quarrel with them and they are free to do as they please. I guess he knew he would lose face when they inevitably join NATO.

I would hazard a guess that it is the latest munitions given to Ukraine and it was an attempt to kill the surrounding Russian forces. There is drone footage released by the Ukies of a night flight showing Russian forces moving from building to building (I would post a link but most of you don't like my sources). Again news was released showing pictures of a captured US Admiral as well as a high ranking British officer.

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

What are you on about? The arrest is plastered all over the internet. If people can paste unsubstantiated pictures of phosphorous attacks or the sinking of the Admiral Makorov then why not.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.ph ... ol-ukraine

[Burner]

I would hazard a guess that it is the latest munitions given to Ukraine and it was an attempt to kill the surrounding Russian forces. There is drone footage released by the Ukies of a night flight showing Russian forces moving from building to building (I would post a link but most of you don't like my sources). Again news was released showing pictures of a captured US Admiral as well as a high ranking British officer.

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

What are you on about? The arrest is plastered all over the internet. If people can paste unsubstantiated pictures of phosphorous attacks or the sinking of the Admiral Makorov then why not.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.ph ... ol-ukraine

If these arrests were remotely true, it would be a massive coup for Putin, whom would have immediately paraded them in front of the world's media. What possible reason if this was true, would Putin/Russia not be rubbing the West's faces in this? All there seems to be circulating is a photo released 2 days ago, of a guy with a hat over half his face walking in a line behind a Russian soldier. Why a retired 4 star US admiral would be sent into Mariupol? The first thing that would happen if this was real, would be the Russians validating the claim with clear evidence released to the media around the world.

It's like talking to someone trying to ram a round peg into a square hole.

Edit: I see the author of the ''news'' website you quote is Hal Turner. Another real gem of a human being. Holocaust denier, spent 2 years in jail for threats made against 3 judges in the US. Even a paid FBI informant against his own buddies in the right wing. I said it in the beginning of this thread, I judge the credibility of a news source based on the credibility of the source. If a convicted criminal, who was banned from participating in internet or satellite programming for 3 years, is credible... then I really don't know.

Here's another of his brilliant pieces of journalism....
https://web.archive.org/web/20070607135 ... Fraud.html

[MadMacs]

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

What are you on about? The arrest is plastered all over the internet. If people can paste unsubstantiated pictures of phosphorous attacks or the sinking of the Admiral Makorov then why not.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.ph ... ol-ukraine

If these arrests were remotely true, it would be a massive coup for Putin, whom would have immediately paraded them in front of the world's media. What possible reason if this was true, would Putin/Russia not be rubbing the West's faces in this? All there seems to be circulating is a photo released 2 days ago, of a guy with a hat over half his face walking in a line behind a Russian soldier. Why a retired 4 star US admiral would be sent into Mariupol? The first thing that would happen if this was real, would be the Russians validating the claim with clear evidence released to the media around the world.

It's like talking to someone trying to ram a round peg into a square hole.

Putin is not the deamon you all make him out to be, maybe when the Yanks asked for a truce tge other day, a deal was made regarding this sensitive info, who really knows. As far as I remember it is against the Geneva convention to parade pow's in the media.

[rainier]

Russian state TV, since the start of the war has been sending out a continuous stream of propaganda in support of the Russian "special military operation".
We know propaganda has a problem - it always has - it cannot survive time. Propaganda is a pack of lies endlessly repeated with just enough truth mixed in to make it plausible. But there is a problem - you can't make up enough detail on a continues bases that meshes with your past lies - reality always wins in the end.

So, with this intro - it seems the first cracks are appearing. Here is a quick copy and paste:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russian defence analyst gives extraordinary 'damning' assessment of Putin's war on state TV and hints Ukraine will win
A feature of the ongoing conflict has been the seemingly unrelenting stream of footage from Russian state TV in which hosts and analysts engage in what has been framed as rampant pro-Moscow propaganda.

However, a clip has now emerged from a recent show in which defence analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok offers an extraordinary and highly critical assessment of the war, which the BBC's Francis Scarr - who has translated the video - describes as a "damning".

The arrival of European aid means "a million armed Ukrainian soldiers needs to be viewed as a reality of the very near future".

"We need to take that into account in our operational and strategic calculations that the situation in this regard will frankly get worse."

He says the level of an army's professionalism is determined by the level of training and its "morale and readiness to shed blood for the homeland".

Mr Khodaryonok says the idea that contracted soldiers are professional is "entrenched" in the minds of Russian political scientists, but that this is not the case.

"Far from it! Far from it!" he says.

"But a desire to protect one's homeland, in the sense that it exists in Ukraine, it really does exist there, they intend to fight until the last man."

He cites the "classics of Marxism-Leninism", saying "in that regard they weren't stupid".

"Ultimately, victory on the battlefield is determined by a high level of morale among personnel, which sheds blood for the ideas which it's prepared to fight for."

On NATO, and in reference to Sweden and Finland's likely entry into the alliance, he stresses the importance of maintaining "a sense of military-political realism".

"If you go beyond it then sooner or later the reality of history will hit you so hard that you'll regret it," he says.

"Don't engage with sabre-rattling with missiles in Finland's direction. It actually looks quite amusing.

"After all, the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us."

Scarr says the discussion continues for a few more minutes after the posted clip, during which he disputes the suggestion made by the host that it is only the West against Russia, saying the support of India and China for the country "is not so unconditional".

For context: Such frank and scathing commentaries on Russia's strategy and prospects in the conflict are almost unheard of on state television and it is impossible to accurately gauge the impact of his remarks on a public unused to such candour.

It will also be interesting to observe whether Mr Khodaryonok is invited back on to such shows again in the near future, after comments that appeared implicitly condemnatory of Vladimir Putin's actions to date.

[MadMacs]

Russian state TV, since the start of the war has been sending out a continuous stream of propaganda in support of the Russian "special military operation".
We know propaganda has a problem - it always has - it cannot survive time. Propaganda is a pack of lies endlessly repeated with just enough truth mixed in to make it plausible. But there is a problem - you can't make up enough detail on a continues bases that meshes with your past lies - reality always wins in the end.

So, with this intro - it seems the first cracks are appearing. Here is a quick copy and paste:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russian defence analyst gives extraordinary 'damning' assessment of Putin's war on state TV and hints Ukraine will win
A feature of the ongoing conflict has been the seemingly unrelenting stream of footage from Russian state TV in which hosts and analysts engage in what has been framed as rampant pro-Moscow propaganda.

However, a clip has now emerged from a recent show in which defence analyst Mikhail Khodaryonok offers an extraordinary and highly critical assessment of the war, which the BBC's Francis Scarr - who has translated the video - describes as a "damning".

The arrival of European aid means "a million armed Ukrainian soldiers needs to be viewed as a reality of the very near future".

"We need to take that into account in our operational and strategic calculations that the situation in this regard will frankly get worse."

He says the level of an army's professionalism is determined by the level of training and its "morale and readiness to shed blood for the homeland".

Mr Khodaryonok says the idea that contracted soldiers are professional is "entrenched" in the minds of Russian political scientists, but that this is not the case.

"Far from it! Far from it!" he says.

"But a desire to protect one's homeland, in the sense that it exists in Ukraine, it really does exist there, they intend to fight until the last man."

He cites the "classics of Marxism-Leninism", saying "in that regard they weren't stupid".

"Ultimately, victory on the battlefield is determined by a high level of morale among personnel, which sheds blood for the ideas which it's prepared to fight for."

On NATO, and in reference to Sweden and Finland's likely entry into the alliance, he stresses the importance of maintaining "a sense of military-political realism".

"If you go beyond it then sooner or later the reality of history will hit you so hard that you'll regret it," he says.

"Don't engage with sabre-rattling with missiles in Finland's direction. It actually looks quite amusing.

"After all, the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us."

Scarr says the discussion continues for a few more minutes after the posted clip, during which he disputes the suggestion made by the host that it is only the West against Russia, saying the support of India and China for the country "is not so unconditional".

For context: Such frank and scathing commentaries on Russia's strategy and prospects in the conflict are almost unheard of on state television and it is impossible to accurately gauge the impact of his remarks on a public unused to such candour.

It will also be interesting to observe whether Mr Khodaryonok is invited back on to such shows again in the near future, after comments that appeared implicitly condemnatory of Vladimir Putin's actions to date.

Trustworthy western msm:

https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxRH6oJU ... A2_H-f03mw

[crash]

Trustworthy western msm:

https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxRH6oJU ... A2_H-f03mw

Dumbass newsroom or reporter using a photo from archive

The more significant issue is that Russia (Putin) has to face quite a few unintended consequences, and they will last for a long time.
Economic ruin
A united Western Europe
Military build up in Western Europe (which was at it's lowest point since WW2)
Russian Ruble decimated against main currencies.

Well done


.

[Whirly]

.....

[Theuns v V]

Indeed he did do more to unite Nato and get the application for Sweden and Finland to join expedited. Not quite the outcome they hoped for I guess. A lot of threats if they joined but let's see what happens.

[kamanya]

I wonder if your suggestion that they fired air burst icendiaries onto themselves, was the tipping point?

Reports seem to suggest that this was a red cross brokered deal between both sides, where the Ukranians agreed to hand over the plant, in exchange for releasing of Russian POWs, and safe passage of the Ukranian Azov defenders back to Ukraine held territory.

I see Putin has had to soften his stance on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, saying he has no quarrel with them and they are free to do as they please. I guess he knew he would lose face when they inevitably join NATO.

I would hazard a guess that it is the latest munitions given to Ukraine and it was an attempt to kill the surrounding Russian forces. There is drone footage released by the Ukies of a night flight showing Russian forces moving from building to building (I would post a link but most of you don't like my sources). Again news was released showing pictures of a captured US Admiral as well as a high ranking British officer.

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

@Madmacs

I wish you were a troll. It would explain a LOT more.

[kamanya]

Regarding the allegiances of locals in a war zone, it bothers me when the arguments flow using locals' allegiances as justification for re-drawing the borders…

In my wanderings around southern central Angola as a young officer, I’d come across empty villages with just the old, women and very young people in them.

In that time and in the same area there were effectively 2 wars going on; One was the Namibian war of independence waged between SADF/SWATF vs SWAPO and other was Angolan Civil War with MPLA/FAPLA vs Unita. In the beginnings, mostly, the belligerents stuck to fighting their own enemies, but as time moved on, allegiances were formed that led to war involving everyone. I can remember late 86 driving right through a FAPLA roadblock once on our way somewhere. No action was taken, just hard looks. Later in early 87, not 100k’s from that roadblock, things had changed and we destroyed a small outpost of theirs in retaliation for harbouring SWAPO. Of course, towards the end of that year, things got hot and heavy and the Angolans and the Cubans went all in in that little battle of Cuito Canavale to the East.

When I say villages, this was literally a group of maybe 10 to 30 people who substance farmed in the fertile flatlands of Central Southern Angola. I’d say that there was maybe one empty village for every 3 or 4 I came across in some areas then. Also, men and particularly soldier aged ones were very scarce. Any that we came across we’d have a long chat with. The unit I was with was 101Bn, all our soldiers were Owambo’s and many were actually related to the people we came across. So, our unit was particularly effective at getting the latest news of what was going on as they literally were the locals. They could tell if something was up by the subtle signals that only a local would be able to pick up.

The people there were war weary from 20 years of this. But imagine if you will, the confusion of having to navigate not just 2 belligerents, but 4 of them AND their relationships between each other was continuously shifting!?

Something of this reminds me of what might be happening for the locals in the Donbas/Ukraine/Crimean regions. I imagine that something of the below may be what people experience;

SWAPO would come along one evening to a kraal and ask if they’d seen SADF, demand a goat and meal and try persuade the men to join. Sometimes there would be repercussions if our tire tracks were new and near the village or any of our stuff/medicine/food was found. The locals, knowing what was best for them would pledge allegiance and try their best to present as supportive of the cause without actually having to commit to it. Also, and more dangerously, how to give away enough useable info so as to avoid retribution, but still have some plausible deniability?

Then FAPLA would come along and demand conscription of their youth and if they’d seen Unita? Generally they didn’t go too far off the main paths so it was really only the locals around the larger towns that got it in the ear. Of course now, the local headman would be all pro-FAPLA to keep the peace and only once they’d left would the young boys come back out of the bush.

Then inevitably we’d pitch up and could sometimes see the tracks of SWAPO or FAPLA and then there’d be the inevitable conversation about how many, how long ago, what did they ask and they’d be in this terrible dance again. For a few months, I was tasked with “night work” – we’d lay up a few k’s from a village, wait for dark and then send one squad in to sneak up and try catch SWAPO getting a free hot meal. We’d sit quietly and try listen to the fire talk. If no one was there, then we’d join for a little while and catch up on the goings on. Now of course, the locals would be all pro-SADF and again that terrible dance of being a local in a war zone. We for our part would do a bit of hearts and minds by tending to ills and wounds as best as our ops medic could… it was mostly large dose penicillin jabs for syphilis (my own troops included!).

Imagine also, that anyone giving information is at risk from their own people when the next bunch of soldiers pitch up. Often we’d have to go through elaborate pretence to get a suspected informer on their own so as not to out them.

Anyway, the point of the story is that it must be a terrifying ordeal to live in a war zone. You cannot be seen to having allegiance to any of the protagonists. Yet, every single time you come into contact with them, you have to show support or at least, no resistance. Even being passive could be regarded as treasonous by the others side. So there really is a fine tightrope to be trod here.

Locals just want to go about their business in peace. We sit on the side-line here and crow about the pro-Ukrainian or pro-Russian or pro-separatists locals when the reality is that the locals have no choice but to be pro-whatever is the closest or most threatening. Even mild support for the other side if found out can have serious repercussions. Once areas become “liberated” all those who “collaborated” (out of self-preservation mostly) run now the serious risk of being labelled traitorous.

“The man is also suspected of theft along with the Russian military. In addition, it is known that he stole and burned the car of villagers and tried to seize another vehicle, threatening reprisals from the Russian military.”

So this guy apparently did a bit more than just be passive, but I still feel for him. War is a terrible business and brings out the best and worst in people. Imagine not having the ethical and moral tools along with having the bad luck of picking the wrong side in a war?



I saw a video a while ago where people were being interviewed in a bomb shelter. They’d been in there for many days with little food or water. Sitting on their beds, the old man was hoping Russia would win and was making many disparaging noises about the Ukrainians. His wife next to him was trying to shut him up and the neighbour on the bed next to them couldn’t take it and stated berating him saying the reverse. They’re all from the same village.

It just shows how savagely unfair it is to hold referendums in times of war; it's a farce, only the country holding them would do it knowing the outcome wouldn't be based on democracy. No one is going to vote in any democratic fashion, they're voting literally for survival.

It’s a bleak no win situation. It’ll leave marks on the populace for generations to come.

[Airwayfreak]

Putin is on short final with colon cancer and he has to leave a legacy. His attempted legacy is to be defiant in the face of the west/NATO. I suspect he will expire before his office term, one way or another.

Every POTUS has left office with a legacy of sorts except for Nixon who is the only president to ever have resigned, but we all know what his legacy was. Bush snr and Bush jnr are war legacy presidents. In this case Bush jnr wanted to impress daddy who was not really a proud father towards George W for most of his adult life. Putin wants to leave a legacy as well and Ukraine has been the perfect opportunity. As I have said, I UNDERSTAND Putin's motives and they are not entirely disimilar to the war legacy US presidents. But for some reason, many here just cannot come to terms with this. They cannot accept that Putin's actions are really no worse than those of Bush snr & jnr.

[MadMacs]

I would hazard a guess that it is the latest munitions given to Ukraine and it was an attempt to kill the surrounding Russian forces. There is drone footage released by the Ukies of a night flight showing Russian forces moving from building to building (I would post a link but most of you don't like my sources). Again news was released showing pictures of a captured US Admiral as well as a high ranking British officer.

Does logic not play any part in how you fact check stuff you read on the internet? Firstly if there were western military, especially officers captured, it would be plastered all over the Russian media sites, like RT etc. Secondly what on earth would a Russian Admiral be doing in Ukraine or even close to Ukraine? Did his fleet take a wrong turn somewhere, or was he there on holiday?

It's actually scary how people read stuff without fact checking or applying even basic logic. There is plenty of misinformation happening at the moment. A lot of it intentional and a lot of it just being posted by people/media for clicks.

@Madmacs

I wish you were a troll. It would explain a LOT more.

Really, just because I don't have your verkrampt Rooi Gevaar mentality. I think the problem is our philosophical differences, we don't think alike, so you denigrate me, oh well I've had worse.