Ukraine / Russia Situation

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Trevorn
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Thu May 19, 2022 9:49 am

Theuns v V wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 9:46 am
Trevorn wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 9:34 am
Theuns v V wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 9:01 am
Y
I come back to my point of 80K "boers" initially holding back 3-500K trained troops because they were fighting on their home ground and used non conventional tactics....

Yes The Boers cheated. In those days the way gentleman fought a war was to line up in a row and shoot each other. Whoever had men left won. The Boers went and hid behind rocks and wore kaki cloths, not like the bright red tunics the Brits wore. Very unsporting.

With aircraft being able to track allot of BVR targets as the same time and prioritize them, the guy with the better tech is likely to get the kills.

First you need to get the aircraft into the air. If you logistics and serviceability is not up to standard that highly advanced aircraft is useless on the ground.
Ja nee, here in Africa we do not play by the rules LOL

Incidentally that is where calling Africaans people "Rock spiders" comes from. The way they hid behind rocks in the Boer Wars.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Theuns v V » Thu May 19, 2022 9:56 am

I dont see how engine failure would be due to structural issues unless its due to say a control link that failed or a fuel line that failed. A structural failure would most likely be due to either over stressing the design limitations of the airframe or not inspecting things like engine mounds. bolts and doing the non destructive testing on weld clusters ect.

For interest sake wrt the boere , they also had way better fire power in terms of field guns an especially the model 1889 german Mauser rifles with smokeless ammo. The brits still used the single shot martini rifles if my memory is still OK. The Mauser was state of the art back then, it took 5 rounds and was bolt operated.

The boere were also crack shots (having grown up shooting for the pot) and a few british commanders stated that due to the longer range of the mauser, "any man within 800 yards was a dead man" Now 800 yds is one hell of a long ways to shoot someone especially with open sights! :shock:

The bottom line is, if you invade a country, they will most likely fight to the bitter end to protect their home, even if they have smaller numbers than the invading force.
If the invading force has bad logistical lines and can't re supply the force, they are pretty screwed, in this the west is far superior.

Some american WW2 general said "guns win battles, logistics win the war" and its being proven now
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Thu May 19, 2022 10:08 am

Theuns v V wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 9:56 am
I dont see how engine failure would be due to structural issues
Ya, that's why I queried that statement. The way I initially understood him was not what he meant
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by apollo11 » Thu May 19, 2022 10:12 am

Not sure if this has been mentioned in posts back, but there is an interesting author and character, a political activist financier type of guy that had a few run-ins with Putin, two notable books he wrote make for rather fascinating reading.

The Magnistsky affair is covered in depth which actually led to him becoming an enemy of Putin after revelations and exposures of the Putin caucus.

Examines the rampant corruption inside the Russian government and related industries

Bill Browder wrote "Red Notice" and "Freeze Order", which also mention the incredibly corrupt ANC and their relations with Putin.

But yep invade a country and you going to get a stiff response.

Putin is still the mampara of the decade, a prime grade A1 douche.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Thu May 19, 2022 10:29 am

apollo11 wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 10:12 am
Not sure if this has been mentioned in posts back, but there is an interesting author and character, a political activist financier type of guy that had a few run-ins with Putin, two notable books he wrote make for rather fascinating reading.

The Magnistsky affair is covered in depth which actually led to him becoming an enemy of Putin after revelations and exposures of the Putin caucus.

Examines the rampant corruption inside the Russian government and related industries

Bill Browder wrote "Red Notice" and "Freeze Order", which also mention the incredibly corrupt ANC and their relations with Putin.

But yep invade a country and you going to get a stiff response.

Putin is still the mampara of the decade, a prime grade A1 douche.
No you (and Finland, Sweden together with the majority of the world) have got it all wrong.
They were very mean to Russia and that gave them every right to do what needed to be done :roll:
To say Putin is corrupt is a symptom of the Rooi Gevaar syndrome.
Clearly you have been played by western propaganda.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by apollo11 » Thu May 19, 2022 10:31 am

Trevorn wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 10:29 am
apollo11 wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 10:12 am
Not sure if this has been mentioned in posts back, but there is an interesting author and character, a political activist financier type of guy that had a few run-ins with Putin, two notable books he wrote make for rather fascinating reading.

The Magnistsky affair is covered in depth which actually led to him becoming an enemy of Putin after revelations and exposures of the Putin caucus.

Examines the rampant corruption inside the Russian government and related industries

Bill Browder wrote "Red Notice" and "Freeze Order", which also mention the incredibly corrupt ANC and their relations with Putin.

But yep invade a country and you going to get a stiff response.

Putin is still the mampara of the decade, a prime grade A1 douche.
No you (and Finland, Sweden together with the majority of the world) have got it all wrong.
They were very mean to Russia and that gave them every right to do what needed to be done :roll:
To say Putin is corrupt is a symptom of the Rooi Gevaar syndrome.
Clearly you have been played by western propaganda.
:lol: :lol: =D>
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Theuns v V » Thu May 19, 2022 10:45 am

We had better start buying bullets here in SA. we will be invaded next so that putin can come get his bribe money for the nuclear powerplant back :wink:
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Trevorn » Thu May 19, 2022 10:49 am

Theuns v V wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 10:45 am
We had better start buying bullets here in SA. we will be invaded next so that putin can come get his bribe money for the nuclear powerplant back :wink:
Another case of rooi gewaar syndrome.
It was not bribe money, but rather networking fees.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by rainier » Thu May 19, 2022 11:16 am

Well, history does repeat itself. In 1939 the Nazis invaded Poland. This gets talked about a lot. However, pretty much at the same time Russia invaded Poland from the East without a declaration of war (I wonder if they called it a "special military operation"). Almost immediately mass persecution of the population started and the area captured was annexed by Russia. The Poles suffered badly under Russian occupation. They have not forgotten this and this explains perhaps why they are so willing to help Ukraine. The similarities are daunting.

But - let's have a look at Russian warfare methods as it's become the topic. Russia, when militarily involved since and including those days succeeded only by overwhelming force by numbers - whether it was Poland or later the race to capture Berlin - Russia could only advance against a weak or already weakened enemy.
Nothing has changed.

If you look at the makeup of known Russian weapons - it's all offensive. There is very little in the way of defensive equipment. Why ? Because it has never been needed. The west on the other hand developed a lot of defensive armament - a whole host of different tank killers and anti-aircraft weapons - much of it man portable. The Russians don't have this kind of stuff with the exception of heavy lift medium range anti-aircraft rocket systems. It is these small portable defensive systems that has proven to be the biggest issue the Russians faced in the first phase of the war - they did not have an answer. They also did not have any comparable drones to what Ukraine started using very successfully. Only relatively primitive drones used for surveillance and artillery correction. Pretty much resembling RC planes - the Ukrainians started getting good shooting them out of the sky with hunting rifles.
The Russians have a good offensive arrangement throughout their army, navy and air force. It really should have made mincemeat out of Ukraine in days as it became clear that they did not receive the expected warm welcome normally reserved for liberators. Yet it failed miserably.

You can try blame the military failure on all sorts of things - but relevant is lack of training and lack of leadership. If this is not in place and well oiled - all your weapons mean little. It's not something you can correct in a hurry. It's ingrained over decades. Russia's actions now seem confused and uncoordinated. Sending cruise missiles and long range unguided or inaccurate rockets from the black sea or from within Russia is not going to fix this.

We are now in the second phase of the war - Ukraine is on the offensive, no longer the defender. Russia has lost about a third of its initially committed force and vast numbers of equipment. It is thought that for every dead soldier you have three to four injured ones that are out of action or ineffective. We don't know the exact numbers - everybody is guessing. But lets say up to 100.000 Russian soldiers are either dead or wounded to a degree that they are out of the picture. More being added every day. Ukraine on the other hand is increasing its fighting force. They can and will, if necessary arm millions and train them (That's happening already).

So - if things carry on the way they are now - Russia cannot hold the currently claimed territory in the East. It's far too large an area. It really is huge. That means they have to pull out. That means Putin needs to concede. Does he have a reverse gear ?
This is not going to be a long drawn out war of attrition. Ukraine will win this. That is my opinion.

The only thing left in Putin's arsenal that can help him are his considerable stocks of weapons of mass destruction and death. We can only hope that some resemblance of sanity prevails.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by Theuns v V » Thu May 19, 2022 12:02 pm

Here is my take on this.
here will be a stalemate at some stage, both parties know this.
The west was very happy to give russia a bloddy nose and wanted to teach them not to try it again, I think this has been done and done well.

However I do not think the west /usa wanted to totally destroy russia, this can lead to a new gov that is even more unpredictable than putin and more radically dangerous.

I would not be surprised if there was a whole lot of back room dealings between the west and ukraine saying that they will support zelenski but at some stage they will have to call it a day. Think about how ukraine has not really taken the fight to russian ground except for a few "fires" at oil depots ect.
I think the west told them to be only defensive and maybe offensive to push the russians back but not to go into russia itself.

I am also certain that there must have been "dealings" with some of the current russian top brass and oligarchs to say that when russia should loose this war, putin will be out and the west will want a "friendly" person in the kremlin rather than another putin or Kim maybe.

These top brass okes are not stupid, they can see its not going well for them and in russia that is when you start looking out for yourself...
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by rainier » Thu May 19, 2022 12:51 pm

Theuns v V wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 12:02 pm

These top brass okes are not stupid, they can see its not going well for them and in russia that is when you start looking out for yourself...
Yes true but the top brass is getting decimated both in actual battle and in the Kremlin.
Just now Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel fired for his failure to capture Kharkiv and Vice-Admiral Igor Osipov for failings in the Black sea.

Lot's of personal in the Kremlin have been removed or replaced in the last 8 weeks. Not the kind of thing you would expect from a stable Government. None of this will help Putin.

But the complex structures Putin has put in place are holding - it's very difficult to get enough of a group together to get serious. You know the "divide and rule" saying - that is what Putin did in the last 20 years. The Kremlin and the rest of the top level government is highly fragmented. Only a small band of insiders are at the very top. This is very much along the lines of the Italian Mafia of old - very much the same ideas on how to get to the top and stay alive.

It is likely that if Russia has to start retreating more rapidly - very likely, they can't keep up the logistics for long - they will declare a unilateral ceasefire. If they do - it immediately puts Ukraine at a disadvantage - they will be seen as aggressors by many of their current supporters if they decide to continue hostilities to push the Russians out. The west will insist on negotiations. Which we of course know will not get anywhere - but in the meantime Russia can solidify their positions and proceed with a de-facto annexation. The west will choose peace over fighting.
As it stands - a ceasefire would be a bad outcome for Ukraine.
Who said the sky is the limit ? It's not. The CAA is the limit.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by crash » Thu May 19, 2022 1:03 pm

rainier wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 12:51 pm
...........
As it stands - a ceasefire would be a bad outcome for Ukraine.
I agree,

Yet Ukraine desperately needs some Black Sea access (ports) to be able to export grain etc.
They can not afford to relinquish any ports like Kherson - Mykoliev or Odessa.
Access up the Dnipro (Dnepr) to Zaporizizha / Dnipro and Kremenchuk are lifelines for grain exports

.
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by MadMacs » Thu May 19, 2022 1:14 pm

Airwayfreak wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 8:43 am
Trevorn wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 6:45 am

Yip and knowing you, you have a friend you is Russias top fighter pilot, .....
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Alright, you win
I've never read so much unsubstantiared garbage in my life, sounds like typical fishing stories and the fish are getting bigger all the time. In fact I've just read that the Ukie army is refusing ro fight anymore:

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by snoopy » Thu May 19, 2022 1:27 pm

@Airwayfreak No red under every bed sindrome here...not even during the cold war, but if it looks and quacks like a duck.... :lol:

@rainier
I fear all we have here is an organization that was formed in the mold of the soviet system - but without even the slightest idea what communism actually is. Not that it matters - once the structure was in place it has proved impossible to change. That's because it is very protective of those in power. Just like it was in the Soviet union and now in China. It cannot be changed from the inside - it needs to be changed by overwhelming outside force in whatever form. Just like it changed the USSR. It was not changed from within.
Hard to remove that out of Russia also, despite the breakup of the USSR and what transpired after that in Russia. :idea:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... -countries

And this - Russia from autocracy to dictatorship, yet technically a supposed "multi-party representative democracy." just like RSA :wink:

Its about those who rule, those who order their soldiers, and not the ordinary people....and dont forget Putin conveniently approved and signed in a Russian law enabling him to stay in power until 2036 :arrow:

you guys quack me up :twisted: :lol: with all your "technicalities".

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kh ... 022-02-25/

Ukraine banned communist parties in their country in 2015 after the Crimea invasion by Russia. I guess that didn't sit so well with the 2nd largest party in the Ukraine or sit so well with Russia for that matter...for some "strange" reason. Especially given that Russia a "multi-party representative democracy" isnt communist anymore? Why would Russia give fig about the preservation of communism in Ukraine....
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Re: Ukraine / Russia Situation

Unread post by rainier » Thu May 19, 2022 2:10 pm

snoopy wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 1:27 pm

And this - Russia from autocracy to dictatorship, yet technically a supposed "multi-party representative democracy." just like RSA :wink:
Agreed.
We sort of have a "winner takes all" democracy. That's not the way its supposed to work. But many western democracies are drifting that way as well.
Its about those who rule, those who order their soldiers, and not the ordinary people....and dont forget Putin conveniently approved and signed in a Russian law enabling him to stay in power until 2036 :arrow:
Yes. Agree.

Take Fidel. He was actually a good fellow and had the right ideas - but once in power things changed rather rapidly. It's natural - if you are in power inevitably there are others that want it. So you have to protect yourself. The more you manage to protect yourself - the more you need to protect yourself and the support structure vital for this. In short - "power corrupts". Some get into power already thoroughly corrupted - some get corrupted by power. Don't really think there are too many exceptions ? Care to think of any ?
Who said the sky is the limit ? It's not. The CAA is the limit.

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