Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom (10 July 2018)

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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by wysiwyg » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:32 am

"To those who don't agree, please don't get out of bed tomorrow because your day may not end up the way you planned"

I don't agree.
Risk is everywhere but I wouldn't load pax on a classic aircraft on the first post maintenance flight. ( If that was indeed the case with this one) .
" It wouldn't be right for me to correct your statement. But, if I agree with you, there is a chance that we would both be wrong ! "
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by happyskipper » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:39 am

At last there is some sense being spoken - Yes, it's all about RISK.
Not the way most people use the word - as in "he took a risk" - but rather the professional pilot's definition of risk.
EVERY flight should only be undertaken after a risk assessment has been done - even if it's only in the pilot's head.
The key to a risk assessment is understanding the risks involved, even unforeseen ones, verses the likelihood of those risks occurring on that flight, understanding the implications of those risks - then taking steps to mitigate the risks or their potential results.

If, after going through the process, the risk factor is deemed unacceptable, either cancel the flight, or do what needs to be done to change the situation, until the risk is acceptable - such as, fly without passengers, do a few high-speed taxi runs etc... etc...

These guys obviously deemed the risk acceptable, or - horror of horrors - did no risk assessment at all.......

If one does a proper risk assessment, then the reactions to any foreseen problems are also thought out prior to the flight, and problems can be handled with reasonable speed.

Some say that the worst thing that one can do in a threatening environment is nothing - but that is not entirely true, either - sometimes doing nothing for a few seconds enables the mind to go through the various outcomes of various actions, before taking them - and then decide on the action with the best result.
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by jimdavis » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:43 am

Peregrine wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:29 am

From the Prelim Report:

1.1.3 On 06 July 2018 maintenance checks (A, B & C) were performed on the aircraft at 18115.1 airframe hours The accident flight was the first flight post maintenance.
Thanks Peregrine. I don't know what "maintenance checks (A, B & C)" actually means. Does it necessarily mean that this was the first flight after the aircraft was rescued from ruin? Or could it have had other test flights before those "maintenance checks" were done?

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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by Peregrine » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:59 am

jimdavis wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:43 am
Peregrine wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:29 am

From the Prelim Report:

1.1.3 On 06 July 2018 maintenance checks (A, B & C) were performed on the aircraft at 18115.1 airframe hours The accident flight was the first flight post maintenance.
Thanks Peregrine. I don't know what "maintenance checks (A, B & C)" actually means. Does it necessarily mean that this was the first flight after the aircraft was rescued from ruin? Or could it have had other test flights before those "maintenance checks" were done?

jim
The Report notes an earlier flight in January (I think) this year. Then the A, B, and C checks were done, including I think grounds runs which identified the manifold pressure gauge problem. Then the aircraft flew for the first time after the maintenance checks on the accident flight. Perhaps a LAME can comment on the scope of the work in the A, B and C checks required on the aircraft.
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by HJK 414 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:13 am

Peregrine,

Small side step if I may
Have you had any response from SACAA ref. assisting with Accident reports ?
If anything - this type of accident and the report we have all seen emphasizes the need.

JK
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by happyskipper » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:17 am

From Wikipedia:

A check

This is performed approximately every 400-600 flight hours or 200–300 cycles (takeoff and landing is considered an aircraft "cycle"), depending on aircraft type.[4] It needs about 50-70 man-hours and is usually on the ground in a hangar for a minimum of 10 hours. The actual occurrence of this check varies by aircraft type, the cycle count, or the number of hours flown since the last check. The occurrence can be delayed by the airline if certain predetermined conditions are met.
B check

This is performed approximately every 6-8 months. It needs about 160-180 man-hours, depending on the aircraft, and is usually completed within 1–3 days at an airport hangar. A similar occurrence schedule applies to the B check as to the A check. However, B checks are increasingly incorporated into successive A checks, i.e.: Checks A-1 through A-10 complete all the B check items.[5]
C check

This is performed approximately every 20–24 months or a specific number of actual flight hours (FH) or as defined by the manufacturer. This maintenance check is much more extensive than a B check, requiring a large majority of the aircraft's components to be inspected. This check puts the aircraft out of service, and the aircraft must not leave the maintenance site until it is completed. It also requires more space than A and B checks. It is, therefore, usually carried out in a hangar at a maintenance base. The time needed to complete such a check is at least 1–2 weeks and the effort involved can require up to 6,000 man-hours.
3C check

Some authorities use a type of check, known as a 3C check or Intermediate Layover (IL), which typically includes light structural maintenance, including checks for corrosion, or on specific high-load parts of the airframe.[6] It may also be used as the opportunity for cabin upgrades (for example, new seats, entertainment systems, carpeting) which would otherwise put the aircraft out of service for a significant time without the need for an inspection. As component reliability has improved, some MROs now spread the workload across several C checks, or incorporate this 3C check into D checks instead.[7]
D check

The D check, sometimes known as a "heavy maintenance visit" (HMV)[8] is by far the most comprehensive and demanding check for an airplane. This check occurs approximately every 6-10 years.[7] It is a check that more or less takes the entire airplane apart for inspection and overhaul. Even the paint may need to be completely removed for further inspection on the fuselage metal skin. Such a check can generally take up to 50,000 man-hours and 2 months to complete, depending on the aircraft and the number of technicians involved.[9] It also requires the most space of all maintenance checks, and as such must be performed at a suitable maintenance base. The requirements and the tremendous effort involved in this maintenance check make it by far the most expensive, with total costs for a single D check in the million-dollar range.[10]

Because of the nature and the cost of such a check, most airlines — especially those with a large fleet — have to plan D checks for their aircraft years in advance. Often, older aircraft being phased out of a particular airline's fleet are either stored or scrapped upon reaching their next D check, due to the high costs involved in comparison to the aircraft's value.[11] On average, a commercial aircraft undergoes two or three D checks before being retired.[12]
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by Peregrine » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:21 am

HJK 414 wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:13 am
Peregrine,

Small side step if I may
Have you had any response from SACAA ref. assisting with Accident reports ?
If anything - this type of accident and the report we have all seen emphasizes the need.

JK
Since my meeting with CAA on 13 June, I’ve not heard a sausage..... I do understand that processes take time. Hoping for some response in the next few months.
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by jimdavis » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:54 am

Peregrine wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:59 am

The Report notes an earlier flight in January (I think) this year. Then the A, B, and C checks were done, including I think grounds runs which identified the manifold pressure gauge problem. Then the aircraft flew for the first time after the maintenance checks on the accident flight. Perhaps a LAME can comment on the scope of the work in the A, B and C checks required on the aircraft.
Thanks Natty Stripper, and Peregrine. Now we are getting somewhere. So there was at least one previous test flight after the 'rebuild'. I guess there could have been more. Would a D check not have been done on completion of the 'rebuild'?

If I am understanding it correctly it sounds as if the D check, being far the most comprehensive one, would have covered the A,B and C checks.

Come Chalkie - this is one of your fields of expertise. Can you fill us in on what the procedure would have been?

Jim
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by rare bird » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:17 pm

happyskipper wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:39 am
At last there is some sense being spoken - Yes, it's all about RISK.
Not the way most people use the word - as in "he took a risk" - but rather the professional pilot's definition of risk.
EVERY flight should only be undertaken after a risk assessment has been done - even if it's only in the pilot's head.
The key to a risk assessment is understanding the risks involved, even unforeseen ones, verses the likelihood of those risks occurring on that flight, understanding the implications of those risks - then taking steps to mitigate the risks or their potential results.

If, after going through the process, the risk factor is deemed unacceptable, either cancel the flight, or do what needs to be done to change the situation, until the risk is acceptable - such as, fly without passengers, do a few high-speed taxi runs etc... etc...

These guys obviously deemed the risk acceptable, or - horror of horrors - did no risk assessment at all.......

If one does a proper risk assessment, then the reactions to any foreseen problems are also thought out prior to the flight, and problems can be handled with reasonable speed.

Some say that the worst thing that one can do in a threatening environment is nothing - but that is not entirely true, either - sometimes doing nothing for a few seconds enables the mind to go through the various outcomes of various actions, before taking them - and then decide on the action with the best result.
I have seen very few examples of SMS risk registers.
This is an example that seems to make more sense (to me anyway)
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by rare bird » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:22 pm

just put it as a screenshot so you don't have to open the excel spreadsheet
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by Bearcat » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:34 pm

Any update on how the crew are doing ?
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by Starship » Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:50 pm

Doug Haywood returned to Australia ± mid August and Ross Kelly ± September 4. Haven't seen any further progress report.
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by biffvj » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:03 pm

https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... killing-2/
Not sure if this has already been shared
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by Fred Bebington » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:55 pm

ICAO Risk Assessment Matrix as used with SMS
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Re: Convair Radial Crash at Wonderboom - 10 July 2018

Unread post by ddevos » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:35 pm

biffvj wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:03 pm
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south- ... killing-2/
Not sure if this has already been shared
The video has been posted multiple times already and was also shown on TV news.
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