Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Jasondn78 » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:27 pm

I know FR24 only reports ground speed, but considering the winds at the airport and the low altitude, I would the ground speed is very similar to actual airspeed. Close to 400kts at that low altitude is very fast. Could overspeed cause loss of control?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Slick » Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:47 pm

Jasondn78 wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:27 pm
I know FR24 only reports ground speed, but considering the winds at the airport and the low altitude, I would the ground speed is very similar to actual airspeed. Close to 400kts at that low altitude is very fast. Could overspeed cause loss of control?
I think you're correct. Aren't the 73's limited to 250KIAS below 10 000ft? Haven't worked it out but I doubt 250KIAS will equal 380kt GS at 8000ft. Maybe someone with a Wizz Wheel can work it out?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by jimdavis » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:05 pm

Slick wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:47 pm
Jasondn78 wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:27 pm
I know FR24 only reports ground speed, but considering the winds at the airport and the low altitude, I would the ground speed is very similar to actual airspeed. Close to 400kts at that low altitude is very fast. Could overspeed cause loss of control?
I think you're correct. Aren't the 73's limited to 250KIAS below 10 000ft? Haven't worked it out but I doubt 250KIAS will equal 380kt GS at 8000ft. Maybe someone with a Wizz Wheel can work it out?
250 KIAS at a density altitude of say 10 000' will give a TAS of 290 kts

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by henkhugo » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:05 pm

Accident Bulletin no. 2
Issued on march 10, 2019 at 01:46 PM
Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO deeply regrets the fatal accident involved on ET 302 /March 10 on a scheduled flight from Addis Ababa to Nairobi.

The group CEO who is at the accident scene right now regrets to confirm that there are no survivors.

He expresses his profound sympathy and condolences to the families and loved ones of passengers and crew who lost their lives in this tragic accident.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by GL » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:12 pm

Judging from the size of the crater it augured in at great speed.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Spoke Eagle » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:37 pm

In the last 15s they climbed nearly 2000'. Maybe trying to climb and reduce the speed because the idiot computer wouldnt slow down. Maybe the stabiizer failed then. Bless their souls.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Swartbok » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:39 pm

Assuming Take off on 07R (the longest runway) max TOW could be 77500kgs with the prevailing conditions.
According to RET’s data, they were at 232kts at 400ft AGL.

They should have been at max 182 kts (V2+20)(let’s add a few knots for TAS), should have been no more than 200kts. And only at 400ft start to accelerate to flap up speed (221kts).

Why was the speed indicating so high?

737’s aren’t limited to 250 below 10 000ft unless a non-normal condition exists (ie. MEL requires it if window heat is inop)
The 250kt limit is an ATC/airspace limit.
Last edited by Swartbok on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by jimdavis » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:43 pm

I see Sky News reported: The plane "had an unstable vertical speed" after take-off, according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24.

That doesn't sound good for Boeing if it is true.

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Swartbok » Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:46 pm

By my calculations the data shows V2+35kts at 300ft.

It should have been V2+20 until 400ft
Admittedly I have not corrected for high alt./high TAS I also dunno what speeds are shown in RET’s data(GS or???) but it probably still shouldn’t have indicated that high, or they were very naughty boys. Dunno
Last edited by Swartbok on Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Spoke Eagle » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:27 pm

What would fail first if you overspeed to much?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Burner » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:33 pm

The local news in Italy is mentioning 8 Italian pax on board, with another total of 35 different nationalities. No news yet if any South African passengers were on board. Terrible...
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by GL » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:42 pm

One can only hope that the FDR and CVR are recoverable. But judging from the crater that may need a miracle.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Swartbok » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:45 pm

Spoke Eagle wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:27 pm
What would fail first if you overspeed to much?
The Chief Pilot’s humour. :lol: :lol:

Probably the empennage or wings, if it’s clean, I guess. (Operative words being “too much’)

At 380kts I seriously doubt anything should break off.
Last edited by Swartbok on Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Burner » Sun Mar 10, 2019 2:50 pm

I see its previous 4 flights were all between OR Tambo and Addis... depending on what actually happened, sobering to think that whatever happened could have gone on just after take off above Joburg.

Hits close to home considering how many South Africans use Ethiopian.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Coldsteel » Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:04 pm

Plots from FR24 data.

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Last edited by Coldsteel on Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:55 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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