SAA Fleet Renewal

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sweeterz
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SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by sweeterz » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:47 pm

With the rumours floating around that SAA has bought 2 x A350-900s, and an Airbus livery A330NEO seen at OR Tambo recently, perhaps we could discuss the future of SAA's long haul fleet renewal and how the plan to replace the ageing A340s? Any insight would be appreciated :)
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Glenn L » Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:56 pm

As much as I'd like this to be true.
Is there any substance to this?
Is there any money for it?
How much longer to the A340's have?
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:28 pm

sweeterz wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:47 pm
With the rumours floating around that SAA has bought 2 x A350-900s, and an Airbus livery A330NEO seen at OR Tambo recently, perhaps we could discuss the future of SAA's long haul fleet renewal and how the plan to replace the ageing A340s? Any insight would be appreciated :)
Bought is a very specific term. I doubt they have bought them. Likely leased.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Ugly Duckling » Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:02 pm

sweeterz wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:47 pm
With the rumours floating around that SAA has bought 2 x A350-900s, and an Airbus livery A330NEO seen at OR Tambo recently, perhaps we could discuss the future of SAA's long haul fleet renewal and how the plan to replace the ageing A340s? Any insight would be appreciated :)
The reason the A330NEO was at ORT
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by HAAN » Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:34 pm

Rumours of SAA leasing 2x A350-900 are very true. SAA wants to fly direct to JFK with these 2.
They are studying if they need the standard or ULR version to maintain a year around direct service.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Sat Mar 30, 2019 3:51 pm

HAAN wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:34 pm
Rumours of SAA leasing 2x A350-900 are very true. SAA wants to fly direct to JFK with these 2.
They are studying if they need the standard or ULR version to maintain a year around direct service.
Standard or ULR makes no difference to SAA. They both have the same engine thrust with a marginal difference in MTOW. The ULR comes with greater fuel capacity (24,000L extra) which isn't necessary for JNB-JFK. The question will be how much of a weight penalty it'll have out of JNB. My estimation is that it'll lose maybe 5 to 10t in MTOW which is as good as you get!
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by FoxTROT » Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:21 pm

evanb wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 3:51 pm
HAAN wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 1:34 pm
Rumours of SAA leasing 2x A350-900 are very true. SAA wants to fly direct to JFK with these 2.
They are studying if they need the standard or ULR version to maintain a year around direct service.
Standard or ULR makes no difference to SAA. They both have the same engine thrust with a marginal difference in MTOW. The ULR comes with greater fuel capacity (24,000L extra) which isn't necessary for JNB-JFK. The question will be how much of a weight penalty it'll have out of JNB. My estimation is that it'll lose maybe 5 to 10t in MTOW which is as good as you get!
I find this comment interesting about the A350 all of a sudden being suitable for SA- East coast USA routes considering your comments below made only few weeks ago on another forum:
* DL are very established in South Africa and could easily add 3x/4x weekly seasonal service to CPT. I suspect they already would have if they thought the market where there. One of the challenges for them may have been the right aircraft. They would likely only start the route if they could do it non-stop from ATL and the only aircraft they have that could make it is the B777-200LR. However, it might be too much aircraft and too expensive to fly on the route relative to the yield they could achieve.
Did you perhaps forget when you wrote that comment that Delta actually operate A350’s or do you stand by your comment that only the B777-200LR is suitable for the SA-East coast USA routes?
Last edited by FoxTROT on Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Sun Mar 31, 2019 12:41 am

FoxTROT wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2019 9:21 pm
* DL are very established in South Africa and could easily add 3x/4x weekly seasonal service to CPT. I suspect they already would have if they thought the market where there. One of the challenges for them may have been the right aircraft. They would likely only start the route if they could do it non-stop from ATL and the only aircraft they have that could make it is the B777-200LR. However, it might be too much aircraft and too expensive to fly on the route relative to the yield they could achieve.
Did you perhaps forget when you wrote that comment that Delta actually operate A350’s or do you stand by your comment that only the B777-200LR is suitable for the SA-East coast USA routes?
I do stand by it. The A350-900 is available in various TOW options, from 260t to 280t. Delta acquired the lowest TOW options in order to optimize their aircraft for slightly shorter missions, mostly northern US to Asia. This significantly reduces their range, but has some cost savings over the shorter routes they operate. The longest route the low TOW Delta A350s fly is ATL-ICN which is nearly 1,000nm shorter than ATL-CPT.

SAA would likely be acquiring the 275t or 280t versions. While 15t doesn't sound like much, it's quite a lot when the OEW is about 140 to 145t.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by HAAN » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:17 am

I hear from anther source SAA have been offered MSN 2 and 4. They currently being stored at BOD and LDE.
Wonder what price they been sold at being prototypes/test aircraft. How much work must go into such an aircraft to get in ready
again for airline operation.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by LongRangeCruise » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:23 pm

So I assume SAA would be operating the A350/A330 as a common fleet.
Does that mean the blokes flying the A340 would be limited to quads only ?
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:36 pm

LongRangeCruise wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:23 pm
So I assume SAA would be operating the A350/A330 as a common fleet.
Does that mean the blokes flying the A340 would be limited to quads only ?
Lufthansa flies A340/330/350 as common fleet (apparently). Might require approval from CAA
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by machdecimal83 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:57 pm

LongRangeCruise wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:23 pm
So I assume SAA would be operating the A350/A330 as a common fleet.
Does that mean the blokes flying the A340 would be limited to quads only ?
It does not mean anything. Perhaps the rumour should be confirmed first, before jumping the bandwagon.

Similar rumours have surfaced, more than once before. SAA operating some of EY 777's, just to mention one. Nothing came of that. I'll be more than a little surprised if anything comes from this one either.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:22 pm

Ok some facts

The new fleet renewal for SAA was always going to be a challenge. Quads are finished. Twins are compromised.

Here are the performance penalties for the A350-900 with a MTOW of 275t out of JNB.

FAOR 03L: Wind 030/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Packs Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 261t. (14t penalty)

FAOR 21R: Wind 210/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Pack Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 256.9t. (18.1t penalty)

I doubt the B787 or B77X will fare much better. All modern twins take a big knock out of JNB. Which suits SAA best is the tough question. It’s these numbers which make JNB-JFK such a challenging sector. The rest are simple.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by machdecimal83 » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:38 pm

Trent772B wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:22 pm
Ok some facts

The new fleet renewal for SAA was always going to be a challenge. Quads are finished. Twins are compromised.

Here are the performance penalties for the A350-900 with a MTOW of 275t out of JNB.

FAOR 03L: Wind 030/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Packs Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 261t. (14t penalty)

FAOR 21R: Wind 210/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Pack Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 256.9t. (18.1t penalty)

I doubt the B787 or B77X will fare much better. All modern twins take a big knock out of JNB. Which suits SAA best is the tough question. It’s these numbers which make JNB-JFK such a challenging sector. The rest are simple.
Using your current figures, the 77W has a RTOW of 321 049 kg, off 03L

SAA has seldom done what is right, when it came to aircraft selection. I very much doubt that it will be any different this time around, IF it has to happen.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Sun Mar 31, 2019 8:01 pm

machdecimal83 wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:38 pm
Trent772B wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:22 pm
Ok some facts

The new fleet renewal for SAA was always going to be a challenge. Quads are finished. Twins are compromised.

Here are the performance penalties for the A350-900 with a MTOW of 275t out of JNB.

FAOR 03L: Wind 030/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Packs Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 261t. (14t penalty)

FAOR 21R: Wind 210/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Pack Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 256.9t. (18.1t penalty)

I doubt the B787 or B77X will fare much better. All modern twins take a big knock out of JNB. Which suits SAA best is the tough question. It’s these numbers which make JNB-JFK such a challenging sector. The rest are simple.
Using your current figures, the 77W has a RTOW of 321 049 kg, off 03L

SAA has seldom done what is right, when it came to aircraft selection. I very much doubt that it will be any different this time around, IF it has to happen.
Which of two carries the most payload vs fuel burn?
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