SAA Fleet Renewal

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evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:50 pm

Trent772B wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:22 pm
Ok some facts

The new fleet renewal for SAA was always going to be a challenge. Quads are finished. Twins are compromised.

Here are the performance penalties for the A350-900 with a MTOW of 275t out of JNB.

FAOR 03L: Wind 030/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Packs Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 261t. (14t penalty)

FAOR 21R: Wind 210/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Pack Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 256.9t. (18.1t penalty)

I doubt the B787 or B77X will fare much better. All modern twins take a big knock out of JNB. Which suits SAA best is the tough question. It’s these numbers which make JNB-JFK such a challenging sector. The rest are simple.
With a 9:05pm departure from JNB, 25C will be on the high side for most of the year. 5 to 10t is going to be more like the norm.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:53 pm

evanb wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:50 pm
Trent772B wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:22 pm
Ok some facts

The new fleet renewal for SAA was always going to be a challenge. Quads are finished. Twins are compromised.

Here are the performance penalties for the A350-900 with a MTOW of 275t out of JNB.

FAOR 03L: Wind 030/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Packs Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 261t. (14t penalty)

FAOR 21R: Wind 210/05, Q1025, Temp 25c, Pack Off, Rwy Dry. RTOW 256.9t. (18.1t penalty)

I doubt the B787 or B77X will fare much better. All modern twins take a big knock out of JNB. Which suits SAA best is the tough question. It’s these numbers which make JNB-JFK such a challenging sector. The rest are simple.
With a 9:05pm departure from JNB, 25C will be on the high side for most of the year. 5 to 10t is going to be more like the norm.
Yip probably. I’m unfortunately a victim of A343aphobia who has been scared into pessimism
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evanb
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:42 am

Trent772B wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 9:53 pm
Yip probably. I’m unfortunately a victim of A343aphobia who has been scared into pessimism
5pm summertime departure for HKG on the A343 is looking for trouble #-o
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Johan.botha » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:21 am

Aircraft performance is an issue at the end of the runway. The financial performance will stop it from getting to the beginning of the runway.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Antman » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:37 am

Does anybody know what penalty Delta take out of JNB to ATL with the B777-200LR.

I remember coming out of KIAH on a 43'C day(admittedly sea level) enroute too DXB, flying time about 16:30 and we where landing weight limited on departure.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by 34south » Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:02 pm

“With a 9:05pm departure from JNB, 25C will be on the high side for most of the year. 5 to 10t is going to be more like the norm.”

Evan, if the A350 cruises @ .86, wouldn’t the departure time shift to around 10pm?

Would JNB-JFK still fall under ULR fdp rules?
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:48 pm

Antman wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:37 am
Does anybody know what penalty Delta take out of JNB to ATL with the B777-200LR.

I remember coming out of KIAH on a 43'C day(admittedly sea level) enroute too DXB, flying time about 16:30 and we where landing weight limited on departure.
The B777L is a shrink of the B777W. Same engines and thrust and nearly the same MTOW. The difference is that you're carrying a lighter (because it's shorter) airframe and trading pax/cargo for fuel. So it's going to leave behind a similar payload to the B77W. It's a beast, because it's a shrink, but that means a massive payload albeit at relatively high CASM.

Delta do have trouble in the summer months and block a lot of seats, however, the extreme restrictions are just for about two months of the year. Most of the year they don't leave behind passengers or cargo since their pax, cargo and fuel load don't get to RTOW.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:51 pm

34south wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:02 pm
“With a 9:05pm departure from JNB, 25C will be on the high side for most of the year. 5 to 10t is going to be more like the norm.”

Evan, if the A350 cruises @ .86, wouldn’t the departure time shift to around 10pm?

Would JNB-JFK still fall under ULR fdp rules?
No idea what SAA's FDP rules are. And yes, if the block time is quicker they're probably leave later and keep the same JFK slot. Talking about the higher cruise speed of the A350, SQ never adjusted their times on SIN-JNB-CPT and are chronically early into JNB. The implications are negligible since they're timing flights in/out SIN on connecting banks, but the higher cruise speed has been notable on that route.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by Trent772B » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:32 pm

evanb wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:51 pm
34south wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:02 pm
“With a 9:05pm departure from JNB, 25C will be on the high side for most of the year. 5 to 10t is going to be more like the norm.”

Evan, if the A350 cruises @ .86, wouldn’t the departure time shift to around 10pm?

Would JNB-JFK still fall under ULR fdp rules?
No idea what SAA's FDP rules are. And yes, if the block time is quicker they're probably leave later and keep the same JFK slot. Talking about the higher cruise speed of the A350, SQ never adjusted their times on SIN-JNB-CPT and are chronically early into JNB. The implications are negligible since they're timing flights in/out SIN on connecting banks, but the higher cruise speed has been notable on that route.
Although the A346 started as a M0.83 machine, we are now seeing speeds closer to M0.82 due to the lower cost index. Constant Mach planning over the North Atlantic is done at M0.82. A M0.85 cruise will make a big difference to the overall trip time, probably making it a normal long range operation and not ULR. JFK customs only opens at a certain time if I'm correct, so departure time will need to be adjusted.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by kaapie » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:43 pm

Surely the answer could be that SAA should utilise Cape Town rather for these long haul destinations and even Durban which would negate the altitude penalties. I am no expert, but it just seems more logical.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:07 pm

Trent772B wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:32 pm
Although the A346 started as a M0.83 machine, we are now seeing speeds closer to M0.82 due to the lower cost index. Constant Mach planning over the North Atlantic is done at M0.82. A M0.85 cruise will make a big difference to the overall trip time, probably making it a normal long range operation and not ULR. JFK customs only opens at a certain time if I'm correct, so departure time will need to be adjusted.
JFK Terminal 4 (where SAA flies) has customs and immigration 24 hours. Some other terminals have 6 or 7am start times. The bigger challenge is that JFK is slot controlled and while not impossible (not nearly as difficult as LHR, HKG or FRA), it can be a challenge to shift landing or departure times.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by evanb » Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:15 pm

kaapie wrote:
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:43 pm
Surely the answer could be that SAA should utilise Cape Town rather for these long haul destinations and even Durban which would negate the altitude penalties. I am no expert, but it just seems more logical.
JNB has much stronger O&D demand and has significantly more connecting options. By shifting to CPT/DUR they'd carry better payloads, but also have longer routes (higher costs) and a less competitive product with regards to higher yielding passengers and connections.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by ERASER » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:45 am

We live in hope that SAA will get some "new" jets, to put petrol on the rumour fire, SAAT is sending Technical staff all over the world for A350 training.......however it might be to handle their customer a/c on the base. In reality I think their finances is such that they can't sign contracts currently that last longer than 6 months.
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by ERASER » Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:38 am

Just heard a little birdy told me 2 A350's from China will arrive in Jul 19 with others to follow later on......they will not enter service directly as a cabin upgrade is scheduled. Very interesting, maybe the Bank of China to the rescue..........!!!!!!
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Re: SAA Fleet Renewal

Unread post by trees » Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:51 am

I'll believe it when I see it in SAA colours parked at the gate.

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