The Great Recession?

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The Great Recession?

Unread post by GL » Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:57 am

Is it darkest before the dawn, will this recession ever end?
South Africa’s economy remains stuck in its longest downward cycle since 1945, adding to the risk that it may fall into its second recession in a year. The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night. That is after gross domestic product contracted the most in a decade in the three months through March. Bloomberg reports that weak business and factory sentiment added to a risk of a recession. But the South African Reserve Bank reported today that South Africa’s foreign direct investment has swung from outflows in the final quarter of last year to inflows in the first quarter. FDI inflow totalled 11.7 billion rand in the first quarter of the year from outflows of 8.2 billion rand in the last quarter of 2018.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:50 am

:D Overly dramatic subject title but it certainly grabs attention!

The SA economy may be (sadly) in a terribly protracted downward cycle (since 1945 according to the article) but according to the self-same article it's not actually in a recession (as technically defined) right now, although there is a risk of it entering a recession for the second time this year.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:29 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:50 am
:D Overly dramatic subject title but it certainly grabs attention!

The SA economy may be (sadly) in a terribly protracted downward cycle (since 1945 according to the article) but according to the self-same article it's not actually in a recession (as technically defined) right now, although there is a risk of it entering a recession for the second time this year.
South Africa is without doubt going through a structural change... cyclical implies some sort of consistency in terms of the basic structure of the economy but what we are seeing now the negative structure (employment, investment, land etc) is a dramatic shift in terms of policy. We have moved... might not be doom and gloom but doubt that anyone would disagree that the signs are not good and likely going to get worse before better....
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:37 am

Ramophoria is long over and the President is now seen for what he really is - just another ANC leader making promises - albeit in an elegant manner.

As long as we have a governing party that is leaning more and more toward socialism, things are just going to slide even more.
Dreams about bullet trains are put forward whilst ordinary commuters cannot even rely on existing trains. Nothing has changed.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:33 am

:D sheeeesh, guys, all of that has nothing to do with whether SA is in a recession or not #-o :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:37 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:33 am
:D sheeeesh, guys, all of that has nothing to do with whether SA is in a technical recession or not #-o :lol:
That was not the OP's question. #-o
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:38 am

Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:37 am
Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:33 am
:D sheeeesh, guys, all of that has nothing to do with whether SA is in a technical recession or not #-o :lol:
That was not the OP's question. #-o
The OP's question was based on a false premise and was thus logically invalid #-o

In other words, SA isn't in a recession at all (although it may be soon?) never mind a "great" one #-o :lol:
Last edited by Jack Welles on Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:42 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:38 am
Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:37 am
Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:33 am
:D sheeeesh, guys, all of that has nothing to do with whether SA is in a technical recession or not #-o :lol:
That was not the OP's question. #-o
The OP's question was based on a false premise and was thus logically invalid #-o
Come one Eddie, quit the technical legalspeak. #-o :lol:
What he calls a "Great Recession" is the longest protracted downturn since 1945 we are expierencing now, as mentioned in his quote.
Whether it is "technical" or not matters little - we all know the country is in trouble economically.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:49 am

Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:42 am
Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:38 am
Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:37 am

That was not the OP's question. #-o
The OP's question was based on a false premise and was thus logically invalid #-o
Come one Eddie, quit the technical legalspeak. #-o :lol:
What he calls a "Great Recession" is the longest protracted downturn since 1945 we are expierencing now, as mentioned in his quote.
Whether it is "technical" or not matters little - we all know the country is in trouble economically.
Wikipaedia
recession /noun
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
Not a "legal" definition at all. It is a definition used by economists #-o

If we use inaccurate language in order to punt a (disgruntled?) agenda we end up with a illogical mishmash that looks more like marshmallow than a swiftly flying swallow.

Words matter: Hitler never personally killed a single Jew but his words killed millions of Jews 8-[

As a gentle reminder: the OP's question was would the "recession" never end?
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:58 am

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:49 am
Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:42 am
Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:38 am

The OP's question was based on a false premise and was thus logically invalid #-o
Come one Eddie, quit the technical legalspeak. #-o :lol:
What he calls a "Great Recession" is the longest protracted downturn since 1945 we are expierencing now, as mentioned in his quote.
Whether it is "technical" or not matters little - we all know the country is in trouble economically.
Wikipaedia
recession /noun
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
Not a "legal" definition at all. It is a definition used by economists #-o

If we use inaccurate language in order to punt a (disgruntled?) agenda we end up with a illogical mishmash that looks more like marshmallow than a swiftly flying swallow.

Words matter: Hitler never personally killed a single Jew but his words killed millions of Jews 8-[

As a gentle reminder: the OP's question was would the "recession" never end?
You're becoming a grammar Nazi like me - bringing Hitler into it. #-o
So let's get the grammar right then:

This is the crux of the quote the OP mentioned:
"The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night"
So let's continue the discussion about when the "weakening cycle" is going to reverse.

So if you are not disgruntled about this fact that the Reseve Bank tells us, you are living in a bubble which could soon burst.
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Jack Welles » Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:56 pm

Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:58 am
So let's get the grammar right then:

This is the crux of the quote the OP mentioned:
"The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night"
So let's continue the discussion about when the "weakening cycle" is going to reverse.

So if you are not disgruntled about this fact that the Reseve Bank tells us, you are living in a bubble which could soon burst.
Oh my goodness, gracious me! I can hear the drumbeat of the hooves as we speak. Armageddon is upon us. The Apocalypse is here! The four horsemen - conquest, war, famine and death - are on the horizon - the end is nigh - NOT!.

Have another look at this terrible, evil, wicked, nasty cyclical ups and downs (very few of which don't even qualify as a "recession"!) starting from 1945, nogal.

Firstly, don't forget the idiotic Nats ran things pretty much for the first 50+ of those years so they're responsible for the majority of the cyclical ups and downs, the current idiots have only been in charge for 24 years.

Secondly, let's take a closer look at that terrible 74 year of ups and downs. More people in SA are better off now than 74 years ago. More people have access to medical help than then. More people have access to education (no matter how imperfect). There are more dollar millionaires. There is more business activity, access to sports, more infrastructure etc etc I could go on ...

It really isn't that bleak. Could it be better? Should it be better? Have people made a dog's breakfast of it?

A resounding yes to all of those, but it still isn't as bleak as the Afriforums and Steve Hofmeyers and their fellow travellers would have us believe. Their noses are just out of joint because they don't rule the roost anymore.

Admittedly Africa is not for those that want a quiet life. And it's perfectly right that they should leave for more restful shores. Us patriots will hang in like we did when the stormtroopers ran things and - guess what? - ultimately we saw them off - now all we have to do is sort the corrupt and greedy - how difficult can that be? :lol:
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Chimsoro » Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:12 pm

Political Thriller going on right here..eloquent, right or wrong..keep going..
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Whirly » Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:29 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:56 pm

Secondly, let's take a closer look at that terrible 74 year of ups and downs. More people in SA are better off now than 74 years ago. More people have access to medical help than then. More people have access to education (no matter how imperfect). There are more dollar millionaires. There is more business activity, access to sports, more infrastructure etc etc I could go on ...
Isn't that just because in 1945 the population was just below 11.5 million and now we are sitting at over 58 million? :? So there are more well off people than then but I am sure percentage wise there are more poor people than then. The cities are bigger, the population more wide spread and obviously there are more hospitals and doctors, same with schools.

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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:35 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:56 pm

A resounding yes to all of those, but it still isn't as bleak as the Afriforums and Steve Hofmeyers and their fellow travellers would have us believe. Their noses are just out of joint because they don't rule the roost anymore.
[-X [-X [-X [-X [-X [-X [-X [-X

And Ace's nose is out of joint because he does rule the roost :?: If you want to nitpick on words...

Technicalities in terms of heading, subsequent posts, wording.... Eddie I think you know better and know the real intention of the posts heading and subsequent posters.... maybe just being a little argumentative :?: Fighting for ones rights (Afriforum) shouldnt be seen as a jilted ex ruler wanting to cause chaos... if the current powers that be didnt give them the amunition they wouldnt exist...
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Re: The Great Recession?

Unread post by Iceberg » Fri Jun 28, 2019 1:58 pm

Jack Welles wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:56 pm
Iceberg wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:58 am
So let's get the grammar right then:

This is the crux of the quote the OP mentioned:
"The economy entered the 67th month of a weakening cycle in June, according to the Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin released last night"
So let's continue the discussion about when the "weakening cycle" is going to reverse.

So if you are not disgruntled about this fact that the Reseve Bank tells us, you are living in a bubble which could soon burst.
Oh my goodness, gracious me! I can hear the drumbeat of the hooves as we speak. Armageddon is upon us. The Apocalypse is here! The four horsemen - conquest, war, famine and death - are on the horizon - the end is nigh - NOT!.

Have another look at this terrible, evil, wicked, nasty cyclical ups and downs (very few of which don't even qualify as a "recession"!) starting from 1945, nogal.

Firstly, don't forget the idiotic Nats ran things pretty much for the first 50+ of those years so they're responsible for the majority of the cyclical ups and downs, the current idiots have only been in charge for 24 years.

Secondly, let's take a closer look at that terrible 74 year of ups and downs. More people in SA are better off now than 74 years ago. More people have access to medical help than then. More people have access to education (no matter how imperfect). There are more dollar millionaires. There is more business activity, access to sports, more infrastructure etc etc I could go on ...

It really isn't that bleak. Could it be better? Should it be better? Have people made a dog's breakfast of it?

A resounding yes to all of those, but it still isn't as bleak as the Afriforums and Steve Hofmeyers and their fellow travellers would have us believe. Their noses are just out of joint because they don't rule the roost anymore.

Admittedly Africa is not for those that want a quiet life. And it's perfectly right that they should leave for more restful shores. Us patriots will hang in like we did when the stormtroopers ran things and - guess what? - ultimately we saw them off - now all we have to do is sort the corrupt and greedy - how difficult can that be? :lol:
:lol: , you're acting like a drama queen now. :lol: Trying to bait us to argue. Not going to work. :wink:
As for Afriforum, Steve etc., no one mentioned them - not relevant or part of the discussion.
We are just looking at economic realities here.....
Back to the subject - The rest of the world has grown economically but we have stagnated in the last 6-7 years. No sanctions like in the Apartheid era, no bush war etc. So conditions are "better" as you like to see it. Eskom made too much power then, but look at where they are now. Why would that be? You tell us if you think everything is going so well.... :roll:
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