Schedule changes and additions

[African Flyer]

Aside from the Nigeria/Ghana routes, it looks like SAA is basically finished regionally

What do you mean?
In the next 2 months SAA is upping frequency to Windhoek (3 daily), Harare (12 weekly), Lusaka (12 weekly), Mauritius (2 daily) and launching Lubumbashi and Dar es Salaam.

Is SAA even making a profit on any of those routes?

[evanb]

Hey guys, I thought you might like this looking at the the routings of Qantas's A380 compared to the B787-9 to Joburg. As you can see from the data in the article, it doesn't matter as EDTO applies to quads too!

https://www.analyticflying.com/p/chart- ... h?r=3m1jgk

[African Flyer]

Hey guys, I thought you might like this looking at the the routings of Qantas's A380 compared to the B787-9 to Joburg. As you can see from the data in the article, it doesn't matter as EDTO applies to quads too!

https://www.analyticflying.com/p/chart- ... h?r=3m1jgk

Interesting read

[grjplanes]

FlySafair loaded Lanseria-George daily flights to start 14 March '25

[Airbus4life]

Just received a notification from Cathay that they will increase flights to Johannesburg to 5 flights per week in April.

[SERTAO]

Qatar-Durban-Maputo going daily from June 2025! Now to drop the Maputo stop. Airbus A350-900 and 787-8 Listed

[evanb]

[African Flyer]

I wonder if we'll ever see Melbourne - JNB and Auckland - JNB

[evanb]

I wonder if we'll ever see Melbourne - JNB and Auckland - JNB

Btw, the start date is actually 7 December 2025. They uploaded it weirdly so originally showed from 30 March 2026.

JNB-MEL: It's a tough one actually since there are so many configurations that Qantas could run. No doubt they could get decent network effects from MEL, probably quite similar to SYD so it would come down to which has largest O&D traffic. SYD just has a much larger South Africa community compared to MEL. The alternative is that Qantas would really want to fragment their South African ops with an additional flight to CPT. I think once the A380 is replaced and the replacement capacity has to be fragmented we could see some more changes there.

JNB-AKL: there is a substantial market and Qantas are clearly the market leader, but also transit via SIN, HKG, DXB, SA, etc. The case for Air NZ is challenging since they would be nearly totally reliant on O&D. They wouldn't be able to pick it anything in onward traffic. And given their fleet issues, I can't see it coming anytime soon.

[grjplanes]

It seems the two routes is very much timed to connect with each other both directions, so big target on AKL-JNB via PER

[evanb]

It seems the two routes is very much timed to connect with each other both directions, so big target on AKL-JNB via PER

Indeed, that's part of the plan. Even same aircraft on the westbound!

[Airplaneguy9]

The alternative is that Qantas would really want to fragment their South African ops with an additional flight to CPT. I think once the A380 is replaced and the replacement capacity has to be fragmented we could see some more changes there.

The word I've heard is that Qantas wants to start SYD-CPT with the new A350-1000s as part of Project Sunrise, but I don't know how true that's going to be.

[evanb]

The word I've heard is that Qantas wants to start SYD-CPT with the new A350-1000s as part of Project Sunrise, but I don't know how true that's going to be.

Yes, they're on record about wanting CPT. It's part of their public presentations on Project Sunrise. For example, see this from a 2017 presentation. That said, it won't be with the A350 as the range isn't needed and the premium mix won't be right; remember that CPT is much the same distance from SYD as JNB is, although requiring a small diversion to maintain within EDTO 330 limits.

The first set of A350s has a very low density (i.e. premium driven) cabin that extends the range of the aircraft by carrying a smaller, albeit more premium focused payload. That's just not needed to fly to CPT. However, the A350 will take over several existing B787-9 routes, enabling the redeployment elsewhere, maybe even CPT.

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