Cathay

[airbusa346]

Any news of when CX749 will restart flights to JNB? Hong Kong is planning to re-open to international travellers next month

[ACE MAN]

Any news of when CX749 will restart flights to JNB? Hong Kong is planning to re-open to international travellers next month

I don’t think it is even on the radar yet, bigger markets to reclaim first . I would guess if they start the JNB-HKG route it would be in 3 months earliest and doubt more than twice a week.

[evanb]

Any news of when CX749 will restart flights to JNB? Hong Kong is planning to re-open to international travellers next month

I don’t think if is ever on the radar yet, bigger markets to reclaim first . I would guess if they start the JNB-HKG route if would be in 3 months earliest and doubt more than twice a week.

Agreed, CX will need to rebuild the core network first before it will be able to really push into the thinner long haul routes. This core includes regional flying, particularly China and Japan, as well as the big medium haul markets like Australia and India. This core of the network supports the long haul flying. CX are barely flying pax at the moment, so it's a long way away from JNB.

That said, CX's network rebuild may look interesting. I'm worried that HKG may have lost substantial ground to SIN as a major connecting hub in the region. SQ have rebuilt their network quickly and differently and it may be a game changer. Historically, SQ built SIN as a regional connecting hub and a big Europe-Australia connecting hub. They lost of lot of ground on Europe-Australia to the ME3, but diversified with a big network to China, India and Japan.

Even without China, India and Japan, they've been able to rebuild quite quickly. One can see this in Australia where they're already back up to 4x daily to SYD (up to 6x on some days including Scoot), 3x daily to MEL (up to 5x on some days including Scoot), 3x daily to PER (up to 4x on some days including Scoot), 3x daily to BNE, and nearly daily to ADL. This is feeding more to Europe than they did pre-COVID and the network has realigned slightly, mostly because ME3 has been more tentative in their capacity return to Australia due to network effects on the other end, and very tentative capacity returns from European airlines into Asia. SIN-LHR is 3x daily and most of the European network has already been restored! More than half the A380s are back in service, all the A350s and B787s are in service. Only a bunch of B77Ws and B737s still in storage, but that is waiting on China and India and a more substantial return of regional flying.

How much ground have CX lost is a big question. China is obviously their bread and butter, but there is no light visible at the end of the tunnel there. Even if HKG does begin to open up, CX's business model as a network carrier is under threat and the O&D market, while substantial, is not going to give them the critical mass it needs to rebuild.

[tansg]

Karma for the way they have treated their crews. Lots of pain to come for this company.

[mi'cmaq]

According to Aviation Week ; Cathay is enduring one of the industries slowest recoveries with 37 % of their current fleet in storage in locations outside Hong Kong

[b-rad]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/article ... tem-exodus

Not in the slightest bit surprised. Maybe someone on the ground can confirm?
The exposure I’ve had to what crews have to endure over there, I’m surprised that anyway is willing to stay. Of course that’s assuming there are other options available elsewhere of course. Options which didn’t really exist in the not too distant past but that are now popping up more and more.

[evanb]

According to Aviation Week ; Cathay is enduring one of the industries slowest recoveries with 37 % of their current fleet in storage in locations outside Hong Kong

Oh, it's far worse than that! It's closer to 50%, and more than 60% of passenger aircraft in storage.

[ACE MAN]

Karma for the way they have treated their crews. Lots of pain to come for this company.

It pales in comparison to how the government has dealt with things , imagine poor joe soap facing a R40k fine and up to six months imprisonment for not wearing a mask. CX struggles to operate under much duress and I would guess at 5% of its capability, yes big changes and drop in conditions for crew , but no one was sent packing for two years or permanently without option to return , swings and roundabouts I’d guess.

[Nicolaas206]

Highly doubt CX749 would return this year. Yes, HK is allowing non-residents in from today, but everyone still has to pay for their own quarantine hotel where you can't even leave your room for 7 days (used to be 21 days at one stage!). So who would come except for people who really want/need to see family in HK? There is hope for it to go the way of home quarantine or even no quarantine considering HK is relaxing restrictions bit by bit, but some boot-licking politicians and "health experts" mentioned a while ago the idea of going back to "dynamic zero-covid" once cases settle down completely, so who knows. HK will also get a new chief executive soon and by the sound of it this guy will be even worse than the current CE.

I can't read the Bloomberg article, but it looks like the headline is typical journalistic clickbait BS. The max monthly allowance increase is HKD 4 000 and HKD 40 000 annual child education allowance increase, per child. This is not very significant if you live in HK and it only takes effect from January next year. If you are a childless SO or JFO then you get no increase at all, as their retention problem lies with the more experienced people.

CX miraculously made a profit in the second half of 2021 considering their 2021 pax numbers were only 2% of their 2019 numbers. Since then they started losing 2 - 3 billion Rand PER MONTH thanks to the new HK travel restrictions which started in the beginning of this year. These have fortunately been relaxed a bit lately. I know of pilots who have not had any flights rostered since January 2020. Credit to CX for still paying everyone every month.

Xi wants to be made chairman for life in October 2022 > can't afford to abandon zero-covid strategy this close to CCP congress > HK's priority is to open the border with China and has to do what they say > thus doesn't want to remove quarantine and flight bans (a whole 'nother utter ridiculous policy) > capacity numbers won't improve significantly > thus CX won't recover before the end of the year (at the earliest). There is also the fact that simply not enough elderly people are vaccinated in China, hence them sticking to zero-covid. Why they spend so much resources on lockdowns instead of getting people vaccinated is baffling.

[evanb]

Highly doubt CX749 would return this year. Yes, HK is allowing non-residents in from today, but everyone still has to pay for their own quarantine hotel where you can't even leave your room for 7 days (used to be 21 days at one stage!). So who would come except for people who really want/need to see family in HK? There is hope for it to go the way of home quarantine or even no quarantine considering HK is relaxing restrictions bit by bit, but some boot-licking politicians and "health experts" mentioned a while ago the idea of going back to "dynamic zero-covid" once cases settle down completely, so who knows. HK will also get a new chief executive soon and by the sound of it this guy will be even worse than the current CE.

I can't read the Bloomberg article, but it looks like the headline is typical journalistic clickbait BS. The max monthly allowance increase is HKD 4 000 and HKD 40 000 annual child education allowance increase, per child. This is not very significant if you live in HK and it only takes effect from January next year. If you are a childless SO or JFO then you get no increase at all, as their retention problem lies with the more experienced people.

CX miraculously made a profit in the second half of 2021 considering their 2021 pax numbers were only 2% of their 2019 numbers. Since then they started losing 2 - 3 billion Rand PER MONTH thanks to the new HK travel restrictions which started in the beginning of this year. These have fortunately been relaxed a bit lately. I know of pilots who have not had any flights rostered since January 2020. Credit to CX for still paying everyone every month.

Xi wants to be made chairman for life in October 2022 > can't afford to abandon zero-covid strategy this close to CCP congress > HK's priority is to open the border with China and has to do what they say > thus doesn't want to remove quarantine and flight bans (a whole 'nother utter ridiculous policy) > capacity numbers won't improve significantly > thus CX won't recover before the end of the year (at the earliest). There is also the fact that simply not enough elderly people are vaccinated in China, hence them sticking to zero-covid. Why they spend so much resources on lockdowns instead of getting people vaccinated is baffling.

This is pretty good analysis. Ignoring the local O&D business, the challenge for CX is that 60% of their passengers pre-COVID were transit. Given how much ground they have lost in this market and the high proportion of their transit passengers to/from PRC, their network will struggle to regain critical mass quickly. They may be insulated a little by a good cargo business, but it'll be really tough to regain their former position as one of the two largest regional players.

Edit: in terms of the finances. The 2H 2021 profit needs to be seen in context. 1H was still horrible, but the gains in 2H came from two areas, excessively buoyant cargo which was largely a once off to due global supply chain issues that gave them exceptional pricing power and a large HK$ 2.4 billion fuel hedging gain that was realised. CX use a pretty good fuel hedging model which isn't about speculation, but rather about forward contracts on known future revenue. But the fact that capacity was much lower than they had hedged against meant the contracts realised some nice gains for them when prices began to rise in 2H 2021.

[HAAN]

HKG is a mess, airlines are being hit hard with a 10 days pax ban if any flight lands within a passenger that has covid.
Regardless if the passenger showed up for the flight with a PCR negative test. IF even 1 tests positive on arrival into HKG
the airline that carried the pax is banned. Its a complete mess.

[FutureCpt]

HKG is a mess, airlines are being hit hard with a 10 days pax ban if any flight lands within a passenger that has covid.
Regardless if the passenger showed up for the flight with a PCR negative test. IF even 1 tests positive on arrival into HKG
the airline that carried the pax is banned. Its a complete mess.

Hi Haan, your information is not quite right with regards to how things are in Hong Kong.

Airliners who bring 5 or more pax testing positive on arrival OR 5% of the pax load tests positive on arrival shall have that specific route banned for 5 days.

Used to be 14 then 7 now 5 days.

[Johan Swakopmund]

Poor buggers the Chinese
They are in this covid thing for a long time now and will not stop
the spreading by total lock down. Rest of the world about everyone got
covid -- mild to very sick to some deaths and only then it started to subside.
Discussed with friends a few times and we in Africa grow up
Now do not get me wrong -- DIRTY
What i mean by that is our babies play and eat ground and mud is much better playground than clean water.
We are exposed daily by not very hygiene places like sidewalks etc.
First we thought Aids will wipe Africa - Nothing
Then Ebola virus - Nothing
I guess some toddlers in China never sat foot on natural ground.
Question is are we Africans not better off growing up the way we do ?

Johan

Mods this is off topic about Cathay please remove if you feel fit.

[b-rad]

HKG is a mess, airlines are being hit hard with a 10 days pax ban if any flight lands within a passenger that has covid.
Regardless if the passenger showed up for the flight with a PCR negative test. IF even 1 tests positive on arrival into HKG
the airline that carried the pax is banned. Its a complete mess.

Hi Haan, your information is not quite right with regards to how things are in Hong Kong.

Airliners who bring 5 or more pax testing positive on arrival OR 5% of the pax load tests positive on arrival shall have that specific route banned for 5 days.

Used to be 14 then 7 now 5 days.

Whatever the duration of the ban. It’s pathetic. Anyone who thinks that the current situation and that of the last few years of the goings on in HK and other parts of Asia is even close to normal and acceptable, should remove their mask and get some fresh air.

[HAAN]

HKG is a mess, airlines are being hit hard with a 10 days pax ban if any flight lands within a passenger that has covid.
Regardless if the passenger showed up for the flight with a PCR negative test. IF even 1 tests positive on arrival into HKG
the airline that carried the pax is banned. Its a complete mess.

Hi Haan, your information is not quite right with regards to how things are in Hong Kong.

Airliners who bring 5 or more pax testing positive on arrival OR 5% of the pax load tests positive on arrival shall have that specific route banned for 5 days.

Used to be 14 then 7 now 5 days.

Thanks for the correct info FutureCpt