BA flights turning back

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evanb
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Re: BA flights turning back

Unread post by evanb »

V5 - LEO wrote: Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:34 am
SERTAO wrote: Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:10 am 3 x BA A380,s arriving in JHB today
....hope the fueling guys planned for xtra stock?
No fuel problems at JNB. Plenty around at the moment.

LOS has had a recent issue (last month) with fuel contamination resulting in challenges for operators there. ACC and ABJ are just not anywhere nearly as large. For example, ACC are handling about 8 daily widebodies on medium and long haul routes, mostly in 6 hour range, ABJ about 5 daily. So will run short pretty quickly. Unless airlines have specific contingency agreements with handlers there, they're going to have problems. JNB has much larger scale, so no problems for an extra few flights (at least 26 daily widebodies at the moment).

2019 data for jet fuel sales per country (thousand barrels per day):
Nigeria 15
Ghana 3
Cote d'Ivoire 4
South Africa 48

So if Nigeria is problematic due to contamination issues, there just isn't much around.
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Re: BA flights turning back

Unread post by African Flyer »

evanb wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:42 am
V5 - LEO wrote: Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:34 am
SERTAO wrote: Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:10 am 3 x BA A380,s arriving in JHB today
....hope the fueling guys planned for xtra stock?
No fuel problems at JNB. Plenty around at the moment.

LOS has had a recent issue (last month) with fuel contamination resulting in challenges for operators there. ACC and ABJ are just not anywhere nearly as large. For example, ACC are handling about 8 daily widebodies on medium and long haul routes, mostly in 6 hour range, ABJ about 5 daily. So will run short pretty quickly. Unless airlines have specific contingency agreements with handlers there, they're going to have problems. JNB has much larger scale, so no problems for an extra few flights (at least 26 daily widebodies at the moment).

2019 data for jet fuel sales per country (thousand barrels per day):
Nigeria 15
Ghana 3
Cote d'Ivoire 4
South Africa 48

So if Nigeria is problematic due to contamination issues, there just isn't much around.
Hi Evan. I just have some quick questions. I presume BA prefers to divert to somewhere where they already fly to but....

If BA56 was operated by a 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Yaounde, Malabo, Lome, Kigali, Entebbe or Nairobi correct?

And if BA55 was operated by 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Algiers or Casablanca correct?

Or are fuel reserves low at all those airports too?
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Re: BA flights turning back

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African Flyer wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:27 pm I just have some quick questions. I presume BA prefers to divert to somewhere where they already fly to but....

If BA56 was operated by a 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Yaounde, Malabo, Lome, Kigali, Entebbe or Nairobi correct?

And if BA55 was operated by 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Algiers or Casablanca correct?

Or are fuel reserves low at all those airports too?
Not quite limitless, but all those airports could handle a B77W or A350. Many already do on a regular basis.

The challenge was that all the airlines wanted to go into LOS, ACC and ABJ since they had existing ground handling in place there.

And while some airports likely have more fuel capacity, it's not like many airports could have taken 4x BA A380 plus several more B777s/A350K. As far as I'm aware, BA returned or cancelled 4x A380s (BA 54/55/56/57), A35K BA 64 (NBO), B772 BA 2064 MRU. Somewhat of a different prospect when having to deal with multiple flights compared to other airlines which had a handful, and less complicated ones.
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Re: BA flights turning back

Unread post by African Flyer »

evanb wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:10 am
African Flyer wrote: Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:27 pm I just have some quick questions. I presume BA prefers to divert to somewhere where they already fly to but....

If BA56 was operated by a 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Yaounde, Malabo, Lome, Kigali, Entebbe or Nairobi correct?

And if BA55 was operated by 77W or A350, they could of diverted to Algiers or Casablanca correct?

Or are fuel reserves low at all those airports too?
Not quite limitless, but all those airports could handle a B77W or A350. Many already do on a regular basis.

The challenge was that all the airlines wanted to go into LOS, ACC and ABJ since they had existing ground handling in place there.

And while some airports likely have more fuel capacity, it's not like many airports could have taken 4x BA A380 plus several more B777s/A350K. As far as I'm aware, BA returned or cancelled 4x A380s (BA 54/55/56/57), A35K BA 64 (NBO), B772 BA 2064 MRU. Somewhat of a different prospect when having to deal with multiple flights compared to other airlines which had a handful, and less complicated ones.
I understand 💯. Thank you for the explanation ✈
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Re: BA flights turning back

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evanb wrote: Thu Aug 10, 2023 1:10 am And while some airports likely have more fuel capacity, it's not like many airports could have taken 4x BA A380 plus several more B777s/A350K. As far as I'm aware, BA returned or cancelled 4x A380s (BA 54/55/56/57), A35K BA 64 (NBO), B772 BA 2064 MRU. Somewhat of a different prospect when having to deal with multiple flights compared to other airlines which had a handful, and less complicated ones.
For what it's worth, had a look at some of the more recent tracks ...

BA2064 is now operating MRU-LGW via a far more easterly route, routing slightly west of Mogadishu, east of Addis, and then towards Asmara and along the the Red Sea to Cairo before going relatively direct to London. Previously they were avoiding Sudan, and thus routing over CAR, Chad and Niger. Not a huge diversion in terms of time and distance since either way. The big diversion for BA2064 is really down to the Sudan closure. The real problem comes when Niger closes its airspace at short notice and you have to make this change in flight and 2000km away from the new track :oops:

Very similar situation on BA64 (NBO) due to the Sudan airspace closure. But for BA 54/55/56/57 (JNB flights), the Niger airspace closure is adding an extra 30 to 45 minutes on average for each sector. Both north and southbound follow similar paths and go directly over Niger. VS, LX, KL and AF doing similar. AF have gone so far as to already amend their scheduled arrival time at CDG for the next few days. FRA being slightly east of LHR, LH are now routing via East Africa and the Red Sea adding more than an hour! Adding it for one flight isn't a huge worry in terms of cost, but it'll hurt as it becomes consistent. Also, delayed arrivals into European hubs is a big problem in missed connections. If it carries on much longer I would expect the airlines to adjust the schedules with earlier departure times from JNB.
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Re: BA flights turning back

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Also, anyone having nightmares about "round the bulge" days? Devil's advocate: if Mali follow suit, pretty much everyone will have to follow LH and go via East Africa and the Red Sea.
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Re: BA flights turning back

Unread post by HJK 414 »

evanb wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 2:19 am Also, anyone having nightmares about "round the bulge" days? Devil's advocate: if Mali follow suit, pretty much everyone will have to follow LH and go via East Africa and the Red Sea.
:D :D ...Evanb

I would be tempted to fly to SA and back just for nostalgic reasons if the routing become via Ilha de Sal again.
Could they also lease a 747 SP for that event please ....
What was it called back then ?? - silver class / gold class service ...... :wink:

Seriously though:
As you already stated - if Mali follow suit - they will have a real problem.
Perhaps the "bulge" will become a suitable (unavoidable ?) route - if airspace constrictions / traffic volume via the Eastern route become an issue (there is already an enormous amount of traffic entering via south eastern Europe due Ukraine and closure of Russian airspace due to Putin's gymnastics ....)

JK
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