No NEO’s or Max’s in SA

[7675]

The A320 NEO and B737 Max are now the norm for narrow body operators the world over (including most developing nations), yet in SA we only have a choice of rather old A320’s and B738’s, with some E190’s (no E2’s). What’s up with our Part 121 market? Are we becoming like the rest of Africa flying the scraps.

EDIT: I'll add to this that none of local operators have any new metal on order, never mind in operation. There is currently an order backlog of over 7000 NEO's and the Max backlog is over 4700 airframes. Something doesn't add up.

[Richard Smit]

The A320 NEO and B737 Max are now the norm for narrow body operators the world over (including most developing nations), yet in SA we only have a choice of rather old A320’s and B738’s, with some E190’s (no E2’s). What’s up with our Part 121 market? Are we becoming like the rest of Africa flying the scraps.

Who is John Galt?

[skye]

The answer is simple, look at our wonderful currency vs $ denominated new aircraft pricing which prevents any exploration of new assets as well as our yields which are correspondingly low. Our operators have no option but to source the lowest cost per seat solutions, new aircraft isn't it despite the operating economics attractions. The Comair experience is a case study on what happens if you get the fundamentals wrong.

[marius scheepers]

........The Comair experience is a case study on what happens if you get the fundamentals wrong.

Although the Comair experience had to deal with 2 major issues outside their control and pretty much unforseeable, firstly the Max accidents and grounding of the fleet worldwide, so they had one sitting on tarmac not making money and the second is the arival of that little known virus called Covid which had a huge impact on aviation as a whole!

[Airplaneguy9]

I think the African aviation market as a whole has lagged slightly behind the rest of the world, largely in part to a lack of middle-class in most countries. South Africa has the market, but it's not enough to justify ditching the cheaper, not-broken-doesn't-need-fixing aircraft for newer jets.

Safair have stated that they'll consider their first MAXes once a second-hand market becomes significant enough.

[Glenn L]

I recently flew on my first Max8 from Kigali to Addis in the middle of the night.
Its one of the newer ones (about 6 months old I think) - but it looked like the same old 737 on the inside.
I think they have about 20 737-Max 8's in the fleet.
full pax, high alt, long take off, nervous
its a psychological thing, given the history I suppose, but when the pilot slightly overpitched just after take off, I had a little moment

20240309_013733.jpg

[Burner]

Weak rand and relatively lowish oil price. Lift/Global are successfully operating some of the oldest A320s in the world. A paid off asset vs a brand new financed asset that does a pretty much identical job...

[7675]

Perhaps EvanB can give a better answer

[IKTAV]

Perhaps EvanB can give a better answer

You have the answers in this thread already - the primary reason is that the capital costs of new aircraft are just too high so it is better to buy good used examples. I can add to that, that the effective non-ratification of the Cape Town convention by SA adds to the capital cost.
If the airlines could afford to buy new aircraft outright it may make them possible - but leases are just too expensive.
I would hazard that you can buy a couple of Maxes for U$ 70m each whereas you can get good 738s for $20m apiece. Given the costs of leasing, the savings on fuel and maintenance, with utilization less than 12 hours/day, it will take 20 plus years to make up that difference.
And the new aircraft have problems of their own - most notably the engines

[Richard Smit]

A macro point of view....

When South Africa is eventually treated with the respect that she and her population deserve, our economy will thrive, our currency will most likely gain strength, and entities will be more able to buy new things. The country possesses every ingredient for massive success.

When this happens, all markets will show growth, and to remain competitive, will need to utilise the newest, most efficient equipment. Until then, operators are forced to "hang in there", using older equipment.

I believe we'll see the odd newish aircraft here and there (SAA maybe, however that won't be purely market driven), but in general, we need economic growth. Without that growth, SA's economy will remain in a reactive, regressive survival mode.

Which is why I was wondering who this (fabled) John Galt person is, and what his philosophy is all about.

I find it interesting to compare the following countries’ economic and industrial dynamics, over the last 30 years. One might ask what the key drivers of success, or failure have been with each of the economies.

1. South Africa
2. Brazil
3. India
4. Mauritius
5. Rwanda

South Africa has the potential to do so much better. For now though, our economy is much like that used-up old 80's Datsun bakkie that never gets serviced. It's just not going to be reliable, fast or efficient enough to get us onto the podium.

But, I'm preaching to the converted.

[evanb]

Perhaps EvanB can give a better answer

I wouldn't say it's anything about the Max or Neo. South African operators are not acquiring new aircraft at the moment. They're acquiring older aircraft on lease. Sure, if you're acquiring new narrowbodies right now they're Max and Neo by default. 737NG and 320ceo are no longer available from Boeing and Airbus, much to the chagrin of some operators.

Why aren't South African carriers acquiring new aircraft? I think it's asked and answered already. But just because some are going on a buying spree it doesn't mean that it should become a universal truth. Airlines are not buying Max or Neo just because, but rather because they either have something to replace or have growth plans for them.